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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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23 minutes ago, Leo97t said:

In this point it looks like maxes in London will be as follows:

Monday - 30C

Tuesday - 32C

Wednesday - 33C

Thursday - 34C

Friday - 34C

I wouldn't Be surprised to  see even higher at the end of the week into the high 30s

Yet I think those could be to low. Okay we haven't any prolonged warmth in place. However if you look at today with 3 uppers 18C is expected. So that's a 15 degrees on top of shown value. Looking at Thursday there 25 across parts of the south east. Add 15 to that you're looking at 40C. You got to add cloud cover poss prec into the mix but I wouldn't be surprised if the 38.5C gets a run for its money.

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1 minute ago, The PIT said:

Yet I think those could be to low. Okay we haven't any prolonged warmth in place. However if you look at today with 3 uppers 18C is expected. So that's a 15 degrees on top of shown value. Looking at Thursday there 25 across parts of the south east. Add 15 to that you're looking at 40C. You got to add cloud cover poss prec into the mix but I wouldn't be surprised if the 38.5C gets a run for its money.

The Met Office are not predicting anything like those values at the moment though...something has to give surely. I'm very confused this morning.

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I think after a month of 14C cloud and drizzle , 34c next week will come as a shock to some people especially the elderly. Up until a few days ago I had the heating on/off various nights.

Updates have been consistent so I don't see it stopping now. 30c+ 70, 80% likely next week. 

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The Met Office are not predicting anything like those values at the moment though...something has to give surely. I'm very confused this morning.

But the Pit  is looking at seven days down the road and making a guess/estimate about the LR 850mb > the surface, and thus the boundary layer characteristics, so don't bother too much about it at this stage would be my humble advice for what that's worth

Edited by knocker

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15 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Looking at the GEFS 00z mean it's an increasingly scorching week ahead but then it turns much cooler.

Here's the charts 👍😉

GFSAVGEU00_210_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_234_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_258_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_282_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_306_2.png

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Posted (edited)

The rubbish weather continues for the North West bar a couple of decent days. 

Cold  rain replaced by warm rain then back to colder rain. 

Certainly no sustained drier spell anywhere in the models at present.

Edited by mountain shadow

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Slightly different take on the ECM after next Wednesday - it takes the plume slightly west. We saw a few such runs last night on the ensembles. Still very hot for most. 

ECM0-168.GIF?21-12

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ECM slower to get the really high 850 hpa temperatures into the UK, but it still does so. A pattern that would probably bring a longer warm spell in fact.

ECM0-168_xrn2.GIF

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The ecm take on Wed/Thurs illustrates the importance of the orientation of the ridge/trough complex

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1550400.thumb.png.206ee300397f7c2e0dad78427fe11fd7.png31817779_tempth.thumb.png.0600062d7d83f5bdad016d5ec63951e1.png

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1658400.thumb.png.a83476899c41b02805d7f230250233d5.png190818544_tempwed.thumb.png.e48762914718d0a6b45a49185901f162.png

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33 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The Met Office are not predicting anything like those values at the moment though...something has to give surely. I'm very confused this morning.

Elizabeth Rizzini on the BBC London (radio) weather said she thought next week could get to, or close to, 30C.... she also said 34/35C is showing on some models but she thinks that's a bit far-fetched. Presumably just her opinion, but how can she think that when virtually all the evidence is pointing to London easily reaching at least the low 30sC?!

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Just now, h2005__uk__ said:

Elizabeth Rizzini on the BBC London (radio) weather said she thought next week could get to, or close to, 30C.... she also said 34/35C is showing on some models but she thinks that's a bit far-fetched. Presumably just her opinion, but how can she think that when virtually all the evidence is pointing to London easily reaching at least the low 30sC?!

I'm pretty sure that they will come on board soon considering the overwhelming cross model support.

 

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I think it's the cloud cover tbh. It will be a cloudy humid heat, not hot blazing one. 

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37 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

The Met Office are not predicting anything like those values at the moment though...something has to give surely. I'm very confused this morning.

I mentioned over on TWO that those automated figures are at odds with their own article on the website which talks up the heatwave potential with low 30's possible further south, high 20's widely.

I expect the automated figures will rise this weekend, but perhaps not too dramatically.

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22 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

There goes the blow torch.

ECM0-192_avp3.GIF

And then the shunt from the Atlantic😮

ecmwf-natl_wide-z300_speed-1831200.thumb.png.a9e427c6754c4abd1996dab983c1a65d.png

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Worth bearing in mind that ECM - having not at all reduced the ridging to the north (big disagreement with FV3) - doesn’t bring the 30s until Friday, beyond the range that the Met Office or BBC tend to discuss details.

So in the range that they sometimes do (Wed-Thu) there’s not enough agreement on temps into the 30s at this time.

 

I think FV3 and ECM may well represent opposite ends of the range this morning; FV3 with the least flow off the North Sea to keep the temp build down until after Thu, and ECM with the most.

So something in between seems the safest bet. Yesterday’s ECM 12z perhaps a better guide as the ridge to the north wasn’t quite so much across the UK midweek.

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45 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm take on Wed/Thurs illustrates the importance of the orientation of the ridge/trough complex

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1550400.thumb.png.206ee300397f7c2e0dad78427fe11fd7.png31817779_tempth.thumb.png.0600062d7d83f5bdad016d5ec63951e1.png

ecmwf-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1658400.thumb.png.a83476899c41b02805d7f230250233d5.png190818544_tempwed.thumb.png.e48762914718d0a6b45a49185901f162.png

22c in London on Thursday? Do me a favour, that's about as wrong a model temperature forecast as I've seen.

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ECM maximum temperatures demonstrate how wind direction and strength will be key, as the 00Zs are far lower than the GFS. More North Sea influence, and so maxes are limited to the south coast until Thursday, and these, after allowing for the usual increments on the raw data, are probably 30-31C at best. Friday sees hotter weather more widely and then Saturday up the eastern side, but 32C probably the ultimate cap. 

Whereas the GFS this morning, with more of a SE flow, looked likely to threaten the high 30Cs.

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Not the best of runs from the ECM.

Greenland heights are back and a UK trough towards the end again.

Could be a very wet start to July as the extremely wet June ends.

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

22c in London on Thursday? Do me a favour, that's about as wrong a model temperature forecast as I've seen.

I assume you are allowing for the low level wind flow and boundary layer mixing? Apart from the fact it is rather academic

thr.thumb.png.8d66c129eeb76dc596f3579ee0f18669.pngecmwf-eur-z925_speed-1744800.thumb.png.e22f9cd19e444fcfa1874ef56c3bbe8b.png

Edited by knocker

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Not the best of runs from the ECM.

Greenland heights are back and a UK trough towards the end again.

Could be a very wet start to July as the extremely wet June ends.

ECM has been flipping wildly beyond 168 recently.

I wouldn't worry about it.

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4 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM maximum temperatures demonstrate how wind direction and strength will be key, as the 00Zs are far lower than the GFS. More North Sea influence, and so maxes are limited to the south coast until Thursday, and these, after allowing for the usual increments on the raw data, are probably 30-31C at best. Friday sees hotter weather more widely and then Saturday up the eastern side, but 32C probably the ultimate cap. 

Whereas the GFS this morning, with more of a SE flow, looked likely to threaten the high 30Cs.

Yeh i reckon is ecm might have gone off one!!the way it just squashes that plume and keeps it at bay till end of next weeek is frustrating!!ukmo and gfs look identical!!

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9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

22c in London on Thursday? Do me a favour, that's about as wrong a model temperature forecast as I've seen.

It's actually right on the raw data, the N Sea flow particularly strong that day - but of course the actual max is likely to be 3C or so higher than the raw judging by past experience. 

Thursday is the particularly unusual day on the ECM temperature charts though, all other days are hotter. 

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yeh i reckon is ecm might have gone off one!!the way it just squashes that plume and keeps it at bay till end of next weeek is frustrating!!ukmo and gfs look identical!!

Yes, but let's see what happens on the 12z runs. I always get nervous when a less favourable run appears on the big three, because it's often the start of the downgrades!

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I get that the flow is more easterly etc, I just can’t see 22c.....maybe 26-28c with the tempering of the flow, but 22c with those upper temps that far inland doesn’t seem right to me.

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