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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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That’s the ECM on board - ECM0-144_lbp9.GIF

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ECM T144:

image.thumb.jpg.2cde923d18ef8a7f1ecd83e87e1ac01a.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.8bb709905ac6baa4a83f81704432b621.jpg

Broader plume, similar to Legacy GFS I posted earlier, more margin for error, looking forward to the T168!!

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ECM says don't leave me out guys... I want some of the action to..... I think the 12z is actually transferring that heat a little further West, especially compared to the 0z...so has it stands at around day 6,we have all the big guns on board..... Now....... What possibly could go wrong.... 😉

Charts.... ECM

GFS

FV3

UKMO

ECM0-144.gif

gfs-1-156.png

gfs-1-150.png

UW144-7.gif

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ECM turns up the heat - ECM0-168_vmj0.GIF

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How long till there's no green left anywhere? npsh500.240.png

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168:

image.thumb.jpg.3860d3bf9ccad628a5a64e5c2cc18786.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.34936368fef5f6ee59687904bc057122.jpg

Question, could there be a pattern that would advection more heat to UK? 

Yes, if the air was being brought up on a straight S'ly or SSE'ly

I'm not liking the fact that we have a E-W surface flow. Yesterday was a lot better for storm potential. 

Edited by CreweCold

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Something you don't see very often..the 564 dam line as far as the northern tip of scotland!!!..what a scorching run this is turning into!!!🔥

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1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

ECM T168:

image.thumb.jpg.3860d3bf9ccad628a5a64e5c2cc18786.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.34936368fef5f6ee59687904bc057122.jpg

Question, could there be a pattern that would advection more heat to UK?  And as a bonus, it looks like Scooby Doo!

Scooby doo..... Only a mad dog is gonna step outside in that heat!!! Errrrrrrrrrrr. Seriously Mike the plume on ECM looks broader than before... Therefore we get a little more scope for error..... All good in the hood 👍

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Heat keeps on coming on the ECMECM0-192_tdj4.GIF

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

ECM turns up the heat - ECM0-168_vmj0.GIF

Well I guess the theory that the new GFS is struggling with upper air temps is out of the window! 

I guess peak uppers will be between this frame and the next, so will need to check weather.us later to find out what the max is progged to be 🙂

Edit: bloomin heck, heat is still coming at T192!!!! 

Edited by Man With Beard

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Day 8 ECM is HOT- the E'ly surface flow is lost.

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, if the air was being brought up on a straight S'ly or SSE'ly

I'm not liking the fact that we have a E-W surface flow. Yesterday was a lot better for storm potential. 

Guess you'll be liking the T192, then!

image.thumb.jpg.259bdb8847c85608bf29135ec1279d24.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.28336b468b94c41984fa4e456c5a8276.jpg

 

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Day 8 ECM is HOT- the E'ly surface flow is lost.

Want last forever Crew..

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That's gorra be the most entertainment I've seen since the great man himself.... Boy..... What a run.... 

ECM0-168.gif

ECM0-192.gif

ECM0-216.gif

tenor.0.gif

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Posted (edited)

Absolutely bonkers these runs this afternoon,even by 216 on the ecm,the heat is still there.

ECM0-216.thumb.gif.4bca6b0403672d1af31d5fc70807fb78.gif 

we are going to need something better than flip flops lol

LMEARBq.thumb.jpg.de990821e824e07e69731a3698dbe391.jpg

Edited by Allseasons-si

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Well what is there to say, cross model agreement on the type of set up that could produce a 40c in the UK.

Except we have just had a very poor June so far, typical really. A real guessing next week in terms of how temperatures could respond in these conditions, a slack flow from the south or south east would provide the hottest conditions. The ECM manages this by day 8 and the following day has a shortwave tracking north which would be a powder keg type scenario with 850s of 22c associated with this.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Singularity said:

192_mslp850.png?cb=2 216_mslp850.png?cb=2

Well, I daresay this is what 'taking it too far' looks like when it comes to hot weather affecting the UK.

The flow slackens after the intensely hot and humid airmass has arrived, and then conditions stagnate.

Either there's some very dangerous thunderstorms, or very dangerous temperatures, or both.

I WANT BOTH😜

Edited by Allseasons-si
spell check

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By day 10 most of us would be frazzled and would probably welcome the less hot air..what a run.. If carlsberg did Ecm runs...😜😉

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