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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Good grief Crewe, that’s insane.

It's insane for two reasons-

Firstly in terms of potential 2m max temperatures. 

Secondly in terms of just how severe the storms would be in that scenario where they occur. We would be talking pretty much as severe as you can get in the UK. 

We can dream, huh.

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's insane for two reasons-

Firstly in terms of potential 2m max temperatures. 

Secondly in terms of just how severe the storms would be in that scenario where they occur. We would be talking pretty much as severe as you can get in the UK. 

We can dream, huh.

Surely an outlier - looks like one of those crazy ensemble members from yesterday’s runs.

Or who knows?

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To continue with the evolving pattern over Tues/Weds according to the gfs. No point in looking any further until all other outputs have been perused. In fact this may well be pushing the envelope as it is. In a nutshell warm and humid air is being advected from the south which could well lead to some intense storms in central, southern and eastern areas of England

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1474800.thumb.png.0ccc85d3393e4253663bc240a61cd158.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1561200.thumb.png.936d4ed7032805e1120d3bb2703d731b.png

tues.thumb.png.742a1202bfd307b7db28b12c8bfa826c.pngweds.thumb.png.099c59e4072915b7f3d7ca71ff51ebc0.png

 

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17 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

It's insane for two reasons-

Firstly in terms of potential 2m max temperatures. 

Secondly in terms of just how severe the storms would be in that scenario where they occur. We would be talking pretty much as severe as you can get in the UK. 

We can dream, huh.

It has maximum temperature at 35’C with 26’C uppers. Surely surface temperatures would be higher than that, especially with any sunshine.

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7 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Any heat most likely will be reserved for the SE corner of the UK, elsewhere some shortlived warmth..

Aye agree, but 00Z increases chance of temporary heat away from SE? 

ukmaxtemp.pngukmaxtemp.pngimage.thumb.png.909ab53ed5da8c9a12dc96a01b080238.png

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Next week becoming trickier to resolve with each run ...

cut off biscay low = uncertainty for the modelling. 

Developing mid Atlantic ridge = uncertainty for the modelling 

developing ‘cold’  scandi trough = uncertainty for the modelling

all three of these are likely to evolve next week and it would be nuts to think that the nwp can pin down how the three will interact with each other at this range, especially given the plume from the south will be heading ne  towards the retrogressing cold via the arctic trough

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15 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

It has maximum temperature at 35’C with 26’C uppers. Surely surface temperatures would be higher than that, especially with any sunshine.

A sample forecast sounding, The lapse rate from 500mb > 850 is virtually along the DALR and then, for reasons previously gone in to, subsidence and divergence, CAA in the boundary layer, etc it doesn't get appreciable warmer from there to the surface

sounding.thumb.png.06baecf98edcc1819ec16894144e5ffd.png

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Well the GFS 00z this morning is a very warm run and delivers temps to 30c by Monday and pushing the mid 30s by Wednesday/Thursday - the June all time max would be under threat and UK would be under multiple days of humidity it’s really not used with DPs easily over 20c.  TS activity is unusually far west with multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms running up through the West Country and Ireland - The later having accumulated precip of near 150mm by next Friday. Despite several thousand kilo joules of CAPE over E+W theres actually not that much TS activity or precip east of Dorset as little in the way of triggers.

Ensemble 850 mean is staggering, now up towards 20c now at times along the south coast during the week and while the Ops run is a little bit of hot outlier for a day or so it actually removes the heat the quickest and becomes a cool outlier towards the next Friday/Saturday. 

Promisingly UKMO now on board as well and pretty similar to gfs at t144hrs. 

 

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Some of these charts showing CAPE and LI are the craziest I’ve ever seen in the UK in my 15 years of watching the models!! Potentially these storms could be the most severe to hit the UK in years. We’re taking supercells bordering on tornadic here. Insane.

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19 minutes ago, knocker said:

A sample forecast sounding, The lapse rate from 500mb > 850 is virtually along the DALR and then, for reasons previously gone in to, subsidence and divergence, CAA in the boundary layer, etc it doesn't get appreciable warmer from there to the surface

sounding.thumb.png.06baecf98edcc1819ec16894144e5ffd.png

Quite, the airmass for a time isn’t to dissimilar than something like you’d find over the Deep South of the US - 850s mid 20s, surface temps mid 30s and very humid. It’s not the typical airmass you’d find over south Spain or North Africa were 26c uppers could deliver 42/43c.

 

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4 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Well the GFS 00z this morning is a very warm run and delivers temps to 30c by Monday and pushing the mid 30s by Wednesday/Thursday - the June all time max would be under threat and UK would be under multiple days of humidity it’s really not used with DPs easily over 20c.  TS activity is unusually far west with multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms running up through the West Country and Ireland - The later having accumulated precip of near 150mm by next Friday. Despite several thousand kilo joules of CAPE over E+W theres actually not that much TS activity or precip east of Dorset as little in the way of triggers.

Ensemble 850 mean is staggering, now up towards 20c now at times along the south coast during the week and while the Ops run is a little bit of hot outlier for a day or so it actually removes the heat the quickest and becomes a cool outlier towards the next Friday/Saturday. 

Promisingly UKMO now on board as well and pretty similar to gfs at t144hrs. 

 

I actually think that the model is not picking up convection all that well. 

Other models pick up more in the way of precipitation. If you look closely, at one point the GFS shows widespread 80% chance of storms

image.thumb.png.2404adec960760e8fdd01d7690f9cd04.png

 

But the corresponding precipitation chart shows zilch

image.thumb.png.77a3aa378590558bf607162fd779ca68.png

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Ireland has already had a horrendous late Spring and early Summer and next week has thrown up some monumental rain storms. 

Could be some very serious flooding. 

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16 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Quite, the airmass for a time isn’t to dissimilar than something like you’d find over the Deep South of the US - 850s mid 20s, surface temps mid 30s and very humid. It’s not the typical airmass you’d find over south Spain or North Africa were 26c uppers could deliver 42/43c.

 

And potentially very unstable and an ideal environment for some intense storms. But this is just hypothetical at the moment.

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Ensemble mean at 17c? Why not:

image.thumb.png.6c511a4443ad95ee4ec5795b52d49f99.png

What's very strange about that chart is the fact that there is more 850 temperature uncertainty in the short to mid term....the back end of the run has quite a tight banding of temperatures. Looks like anything from a 3-5 day hot blast before back to normality....think we would have taken that a week ago in the depths of despair.

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NetWx-mr take on rainfall accumulation out till next Thursday.

944602303_viewimage(23).thumb.png.2d02056d55e5da3c6ff1e4416a1df28f.png

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29 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I actually think that the model is not picking up convection all that well. 

Other models pick up more in the way of precipitation. If you look closely, at one point the GFS shows widespread 80% chance of storms

image.thumb.png.2404adec960760e8fdd01d7690f9cd04.png

 

But the corresponding precipitation chart shows zilch

image.thumb.png.77a3aa378590558bf607162fd779ca68.png

see my previous comment re CAPE and ppn

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4 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

NetWx-mr take on rainfall accumulation out till next Thursday.

944602303_viewimage(23).thumb.png.2d02056d55e5da3c6ff1e4416a1df28f.png

Yeah, more towards what you'd expect given the synoptics on show from GFS

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Posted (edited)

ECM at 144:

Yes yes yes yes YES!!
 

image.png

image.png

Edited by mb018538

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9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM at 144:

Yes yes yes yes YES!!
 

image.png

image.png

Not as severe as the GFS (Unsurprisingly), but still hot and thundery.

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

ECM at 144:

Yes yes yes yes YES!!
 

image.png

image.png

Although by 168/192hrs it’s lining up those massive Greeny heights again and another massively abrupt switch in the weather back to winter lol.....it just won’t drop this solution so one by the end of next week could see us back in a pattern similar to a couple of weeks ago.....however need not worry about this at the moment.....

Edited by Alderc

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5 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Not as severe as the GFS (Unsurprisingly), but still hot and thundery.

If we're going to do this, I'd rather it went all in a la GFS

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1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Although by 168/192hrs it’s lining up those massive Greeny heights again and another massively abrupt switch in the weather back to winter lol.....it just won’t drop this solution so one by the end of next week could see us back in a pattern similar to a couple of weeks ago..... 

It is - but by their very nature plume events like this aren't long lasting. As i mentioned in an earlier post 3-5 days for this one, which is about the norm. I wouldn't worry too much about the after, enjoy what may be about to unfold instead!

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

If we're going to do this, I'd rather it went all in a la GFS

I can't believe people are turning their noses up at 850s of 18-19c that the ECM is showing! GFS op is bonkers and very unlikely to verify.

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Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I can't believe people are turning their noses up at 850s of 18-19c that the ECM is showing! GFS op is bonkers and very unlikely to verify.

Anywhere N and W of London see uppers closer to 16c. Not going to cut it for the real severe weather, insane CAPE values and storm potential etc. The main plume axis is across the near continent.

image.thumb.png.0a068ca224210fdfa90287e39d4be1f6.png

Edited by CreweCold

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