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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Is there something not quite right with this new GFS model. 850 hpa temps upto 23C after days of warmer uppers and some high pressure...

image.thumb.png.09720fa2852ae0f0cbdce619e38df05a.png

Yet maximum temperatures in the early 20s under....

image.thumb.png.986bbadd6a4812fe54515ade7cf874cc.png 

Go home GFS... bring the old model back....

Just mentioned that a minute ago!!it really is poor if it cant even get this right lol!!

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Just now, shaky said:

Just mentioned that a minute ago!!it really is poor if it cant even get this right lol!!

Indeed, surely such synoptics would bring temperatures above 30C. Could they have released this new model upgrade too early? Perhaps there are still some gremlins to iron out...  

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Synoptically the 18z again is promising holding the cut off in a favourable position. Early next week the is a lot of cloud injested and thrown up and over the UK hence the surpressed temps in the low 20s. However GFS clears the cloud out Weds onwards yet surface temps not any higher than the again outrageous 25c 850s being pumped in, the must be an issue with it? Even with the wet ground and stiff SE breeze I’d expect a comfortable 30+c

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1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Synoptically the 18z again is promising holding the cut off in a favourable position. Early next week the is a lot of cloud injested and thrown up and over the UK hence the surpressed temps in the low 20s. However GFS clears the cloud out Weds onwards yet surface temps not any higher than the again outrageous 25c 850s being pumped in, the must be an issue with it? Even with the wet ground and stiff SE breeze I’d expect a comfortable 30+c

I think there is definitely an issue because according to the cloud cover, skies are clear yet temperatures are still in the early 20s with 850s around the same.

image.thumb.png.0a91f494f2d0f8a8b5964f5422d756d3.png

Question is, if there is something wrong with how it models the surface temperatures, could this feedback into the model output itself and affect future synoptic evolutions?

It only seem to be this run I have noticed it but it does seeem strange.

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Some quite bizarre temperature profiles on the GFS lately with uppers outstripping the surface temperatures.

It could be an error but that doesn't explain why it's modelling the French temperatures seemingly correctly in accordance with the uppers.

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8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Synoptically the 18z again is promising holding the cut off in a favourable position. Early next week the is a lot of cloud injested and thrown up and over the UK hence the surpressed temps in the low 20s. However GFS clears the cloud out Weds onwards yet surface temps not any higher than the again outrageous 25c 850s being pumped in, the must be an issue with it? Even with the wet ground and stiff SE breeze I’d expect a comfortable 30+c

Definitely an issue with it.  As no way would the 30C plus maxes just halt on the coast of Northern France while the 20C 850s blanket through the UK.

heat issue.png

Edited by 38.5*C
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3 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Definitely an issue with it.  As no way would the 30C plus maxes just halt on the coast of Northern France while the 20C 850s blanket through the UK.

To be honest, it's making me question the whole synoptic solution shown on the model in general. 

I've also noticed where you'd expect precipitation there is none showing, at points.

Edited by CreweCold
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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think there is definitely an issue because according to the cloud cover, skies are clear yet temperatures are still in the early 20s with 850s around the same.

image.thumb.png.0a91f494f2d0f8a8b5964f5422d756d3.png

Question is, if there is something wrong with how it models the surface temperatures, could this feedback into the model output itself and affect future synoptic evolutions?

It only seem to be this run I have noticed it but it does seeem strange.

GFS was obviously renowned recently for under cooking temps by a degree or two but if you look over France where conditions are even more optimal the 27c 850s ‘only’ develops 32-36c, id expect 40c plus easily...

Maybe its to do with the moisture it’s modelling wide area of DPs 25-27c in France, with all that moisture there’d be huge amount of evaporation taking place at the surface? 

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3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS was obviously renowned recently for under cooking temps by a degree or two but if you look over France where conditions are even more optimal the 27c 850s ‘only’ develops 32-36c, id expect 40c plus easily...

Maybe its to do with the moisture it’s modelling wide area of DPs 25-27c in France, with all that moisture there’d be huge amount of evaporation taking place at the surface? 

Your guess is as good as mine lol. I think stick to the ECM and UKMO whilst they sort it out.....

Shame we can't see what the old version of the model is showing, is it backing the current model? or is the block a lot less resilient?

If the surface temps are only low 20s despite the warmth, any deepening of low pressure is likely to be underplayed which may explain why recent model output is so slow at bringing the Atlantic back in. That is just speculation however.  

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

Your guess is as good as mine lol. I think stick to the ECM and UKMO whilst they sort it out.....

Yep.

The thing is, whilst it's underdoing 2m temps, it's also underdoing the dew point, which is in turn means it's underdoing CAPE. Hot, moist flow over the UK means high CAPE values and thunderstorms. None of that is modelled, even when more moisture is added from the advancing trough.

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 GFS crazy plume fun is back. Raw data at T240 shows me with a T850 of 20.4 but a T2M of 19.6!!! WTF.

 Definitely seen this on other runs such as the 6Z today with plume fun part 1. 

Edited by Chris.R
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What should I wear next week?

New GFS: Winter jacket / factor 50 buy coal, sorry ice cubes no coal winter fire, heating on no 40C... 

Given the summer we have had, a jump to 25C uppers is slightly schizophrenic at best.

I think its overplaying 850s but underplaying temps. Whatever it's doing its broken.

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3 hours ago, Alderc said:

..

Maybe its to do with the moisture it’s modelling wide area of DPs 25-27c in France, with all that moisture there’d be huge amount of evaporation taking place at the surface? 

The surface > 850mb lapse rate would be less than the DALR so the extrapolation of the temp profile, and anything else that could effect it,  would be guess work

Edited by knocker
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7 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

ECM tugs at that continental plume but with significant watch outs - 

Heat + instability = Storms & heavy rain...

r...

 

Better

Heat + moisture = Instability = Storms & heavy rain

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ICON is a storm lovers' dream this morning. Low pressure spinning around to the SW throwing up moisture into a warm upper profile. Ergo, bouts of heavy rain and thunderstorms pushing up from France and SW approaches.

So, what do people prefer, cool and showery or warm, humid and wet?

Edited by CreweCold
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8 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Of note though is the continual blocking of Greenland at record breaking Thickness ( similar to last week ) indicating that the low pressure could become quasi- stationary again...

Another Summer of Extremes this year...

EA4ED461-DF57-48EC-A7CF-587F3A1633DA.thumb.png.76994d1f9af165ab39d6c7a77743a5b5.png

Yes Steve...

I've been keeping my eye on things with a keen interest. Looks like there is potential for a real rainmaker scenario within the next couple of weeks.

Of interest is the trend within some of the modelling to keep LP spinning around to our SW with the UK on the boundary of the hot upper air to our E and something cooler out west. In this boundary zone you'll see heavy bouts of rain and thunderstorms ejected northwards, wherever it chooses to ultimately set up.

 

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GFS raises the stakes...

image.thumb.png.e805eca4392785409cb93b4a304d0006.png

image.thumb.png.1c8ce4b8d94f9cad244563b4f097b447.png

image.thumb.png.6d39b62ed8873b9d225460a3b2d1ca28.png

 

The model however is still having massive issues with data representation. Here is the corresponding precipitation chart-

image.thumb.png.5a4eecacf38852edd36c6841105b1945.png

Massively out of kilter with the corresponding pressure chart above. If those uppers occurred, you could add a good 5/6C on to those 2m temperatures and beef the CAPE up considerably. There would also be some pretty severe supercell thunderstorms knocking about.

Edited by CreweCold
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There is a lot going on at the moment, with currently two different airmasses effecting the UK, so for a change the North Atlantic 850mb temp anomaly and surface analysis

gfs-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-0902400.thumb.png.442c16f44e902ed98bf615927c774084.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.bf3382695c010ae15b7c4fd856860976.gif

There is a lot of shower activity over England and Wales at the moment, particularly in the south east where it is frequent, heavy and thundery. This will move into the North Sea by around midday as the shallow unstable low does likewise but showers in it's wake may pep up for a time, courtesy of a front tracking behind. And they will also pep up over N. Ireland and western Scotland courtesy of a low and associated fronts at the base of the upper trough

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0945600.thumb.png.0194fdb3997727a3a61dcaf069312ae9.pngPPVE89.thumb.gif.51b8d34f5aa187c79edaea42278ad7b9.gif1799588187_maxwed.thumb.png.8662c35b1eb6632bc5680bbd258fe9c3.png

meanreflec_d02_12.thumb.png.f8418adee491a378fdfe1ff321c84598.pngmeanreflec_d02_15.thumb.png.f8b2ba0b37a36ec75cd728a31f5438be.pngmeanreflec_d02_18.thumb.png.d8afc336f4968f91a282e73a23a0558f.pngmeanreflec_d02_21.thumb.png.de9e09ef6ed51934f96c55c6df42c0e6.pngmeanreflec_d02_24.thumb.png.3b4081f73184a8fada45abdff52a92c6.png

The shower activity will tend to be confined to the NW/W regions this evening and overnight as the occlusion assosiated with the aforementioned low tracks south east down the country

PPVG89.thumb.gif.d16de9692af078c72d4d4b45a559d536.gifprecip_d02_36.thumb.png.83f5b4b78a3e734c477823bd6832233a.png

The occlusion continues it's journey through Thursday so a day of sunshine and showers, and these may well be frequent and heavy, with thunder in the mix in the north west as another occlusion runs around in the circulation. Quite a breezy day as well

PPVI89.thumb.gif.bc506a90582ab22b83780ca2d1a2174b.gif2030813430_maxth.thumb.png.db87cd9afec005ce631c78b7bc8f95eb.pngprecip_d02_39.thumb.png.44298b78338118c6f72bba0343e12987.pngprecip_d02_42.thumb.png.9189eba9804903c2d616e9c624091056.pngprecip_d02_45.thumb.png.37db48918ac09030207d3acc76ab8cb0.pngprecip_d02_48.thumb.png.f6fa9e9820a1e330cdd6cdbf95b0c7dc.png

But over Thursday night and through Friday changes are afoot with the upper trough being shunted north and as a new upper low approaches from the south west, high pressure builds from the south. Ergo a much quieter day on Friday with rain confined to N. Ireland and Scotland.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1118400.thumb.png.ba3b12a65a3c13ecac4a2c07b8668950.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.ad95b9aba043f1674c2a65e2d137110e.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.230241b44c0fa160b014d91f2124cec8.gif

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The pattern slowly evolves through Saturday as the upper low to the south west edges closer and the high cell drifts east. A few showers around, particularly in the north

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1204800.thumb.png.e8a9c52dc0cfe90793850faab36071b8.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.d551944b501f4eae682d6a6703e80570.gif

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And the slow evolution continues on Sunday with most places in the north and east staying dry and sunny and warming up a tad whilst the frontal rain associated with the low to the south west will gradually encroach south western regions.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1291200.thumb.png.4bba3fc804607bfa8c020a5d5123a51b.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.9325bdf37c19ad0c31a71fe221eb4f33.gif

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Edited by knocker
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From this point as seen by the gfs

The amplification gets underway with a vengeance through Monday but the rain does continue north east

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1388400.thumb.png.f27632c73215904bfe556aa63ff740f7.png671997601_rainmon.thumb.png.801e2c826be008529ddd580ce1b1102f.png

And this is the position at midday on Wednesday so I feel it wise to conclude on Monday for the time being

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-1550400.thumb.png.a4d37e463a93f0a7055a281621cd737a.png

 

Edited by knocker
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So I think firstly some good news, once we get through today and tomorrow, Friday, Saturday & Sunday look more settled and much sunnier as pressure builds in. A chance for a dry out and some pleasant temps in the high teens for the north west to low 20s towards the south, maybe something a little more showery on Sunday, 

Moving into next week the pendulum appears to have swung in our favour during the past 24hrs towards a significant spell of weather affecting parts of the UK. Yesterday morning I said I thought it was 75/25 in favour of the trough winning out and cooler/wetter conditions dominating, based in available info this morning I’m flipping that to 65/35 (I’m trying not to be too bullish) in favour of the cutoff being held in a favourable position long enough to enable a very soupy airmass to be advected north west from the continent up and over the UK. The GFS ensemble mean is now comfortably above the LTA with the majority of members having a notable spike of 850s between 15-25c, only 3 or 4 don’t and they are the ones that bring in the cutoff low (hopefully they don’t happen). Giving the drying out that will take place in the south east in the next week temps could easily push into the low 30s if the cut off can be held in that ‘Goldilocks’ zone long, Ireland and western parts still much warmer but would be at the risk of multiple round of severe summer thunderstorms both from surface based and elevated storms. UKMO backs the evolution to 144hrs so I feel like it’s a massive ECM coming up this morning to see is can if follow up it’s 12z output from yesterday (I’ll ignore the outlier end which flipped to winter in 24hrs for the time being) 

My biggest concern is despite the apparent backing for this scenario is in reality every nearly always ends up being further east than modelled at this range, to counter that Id like to see a continuation of the cut off being held even further west.  

Irrespective of what happens here the near continent looks like a complete furnace next week, i wouldn’t be surprised to see at least June all time maxes go across Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, possibility Switzerland & France as well. High dew points giving unusually high heat indices well into the 40’s C across north Western Europe and not that different a feel to pre-monsoonal buildup type heat you’d get in somewhere like Mumbai or Coastal Thailand ie mid to high 30s and mid 20s DPs.....interesting times......

 

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15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

So I think firstly some good news, once we get through today and tomorrow, Friday, Saturday & Sunday look more settled and much sunnier as pressure builds in. A chance for a dry out and some pleasant temps in the high teens for the north west to low 20s towards the south, maybe something a little more showery on Sunday, 

Moving into next week the pendulum appears to have swung in our favour during the past 24hrs towards a significant spell of weather affecting parts of the UK. Yesterday morning I said I thought it was 75/25 in favour of the trough winning out and cooler/wetter conditions dominating, based in available info this morning I’m flipping that to 65/35 (I’m trying not to be too bullish) in favour of the cutoff being held in a favourable position long enough to enable a very soupy airmass to be advected north west from the continent up and over the UK. The GFS ensemble mean is now comfortably above the LTA with the majority of members having a notable spike of 850s between 15-25c, only 3 or 4 don’t and they are the ones that bring in the cutoff low (hopefully they don’t happen). Giving the drying out that will take place in the south east in the next week temps could easily push into the low 30s if the cut off can be held in that ‘Goldilocks’ zone long, Ireland and western parts still much warmer but would be at the risk of multiple round of severe summer thunderstorms both from surface based and elevated storms. UKMO backs the evolution to 144hrs so I feel like it’s a massive ECM coming up this morning to see is can if follow up it’s 12z output from yesterday (I’ll ignore the outlier end which flipped to winter in 24hrs for the time being) 

My biggest concern is despite the apparent backing for this scenario is in reality every nearly always ends up being further east than modelled at this range, to counter that Id like to see a continuation of the cut off being held even further west.  

Irrespective of what happens here the near continent looks like a complete furnace next week, i wouldn’t be surprised to see at least June all time maxes go across Belgium, Netherlands, Luxembourg, possibility Switzerland & France as well. High dew points giving unusually high heat indices well into the 40’s C across north Western Europe and not that different a feel to pre-monsoonal buildup type heat you’d get in somewhere like Mumbai or Coastal Thailand ie mid to high 30s and mid 20s DPs.....interesting times......

 

Sorry I'm not clear to what evolution you refer?

 

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5 minutes ago, knocker said:

Sorry I'm not clear to what evolution you refer?

 

Sorry should have been clearer, generally looks as though it wants to hold the cut off in a more favourable position to the south west allowing for a north west advection of the warmer airmass over the UK. 

ECM to 144 looks promising as well.

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So on the 00Zs, at T144, all three main models have the trough still to our SW. Potential for a hot day or two growing, even very hot. However, this kind of setup may only resolve by T96, I feel. 

Again @Alderc gives a fine analysis above

Edited by Man With Beard
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Amazing charts this morning!!all 3 look very similar at 144 hours!infact ecm looks an absolute corker and the best to the naked eye!!the 168 hour chart is a sizzler!!!no downgrades this morning!!!this weekend looks sunny and warm aswell!!

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