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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
19 minutes ago, Alderc said:

 

Synoptically and with dry ground the 06Z GFS Ops would be the run to get the UK to 40C. Shame it'll never happen. 

You sure?  Not on this occasion maybe, but feel it’s merely a matter of time in our warming climate!

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matty007 Rising Star

matty007

Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and hot.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, near Cambridge.
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:



 

roasted.png

That’s probably 40c right there. 

Shame it’ll never happen

Edited by matty007
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Not an ideal chart at day 10 from the FV3 it must be said... I'm completely miffed as to where the weather is leading us right now... To anyone interested, the met office are streaming the weather studio on you tube at 1pm...where they will be answering the publics questions... Maybe worth a look during these uncertain times. 

gfs-0-240.png

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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted (edited)

I think GFS has become the new NAVGEM, Heres a trip down memory lane courtesy of a NAVGEM chart from 2018...

But on a serious note, UK weather is always going to see extremes and if GFS is displaying uppers hitting the mid 20s then its obviously sniffed some variable in the atmosphere that would suggest we are not far from hitting those kind of temps.  Last year we came close to a August 2003 style heatwave which was watered down.

Also not sure if this would have anything to do with it but i once saw a BBC weather video presented by Matt Taylor saying that since Aug 2003 we were supposed to be seeing our part of the NH see deadly heatwaves every other year by 2030.

 

40 DEG.gif

Edited by 38.5*C
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The GEFS 6z mean supports a humid very warm / hot spell next week across the s / se with uppers (850's) of +10 or slightly higher but of course some members have much hotter potential..probably a mix of sunshine and thundery showers / storms with a continental flow..plumey

Edited by Jon Snow
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The GEFS 6z mean supports a very warm / hot spell next week across the s / se.

Yes, despite the Ops run being at times a MASSIVE Outlier next Wednesday, the pendulum appears to swing slightly more towards a stalled cut off to the south west. Only one run, defo more required. 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

P5 will get the SE crew frothing at the mouth. Is it a mirage I see before me... When you've been searching for so long, the mind plays tricks on you. 

gens-5-0-180.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

The mean does warm up before crashing back down to earth with a bang later. Rainfall spikes not that bad. 

graphe3_1000_254_109___.png

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Yes, despite the Ops run being at times a MASSIVE Outlier next Wednesday, the pendulum appears to swing slightly more towards a stalled cut off to the south west. Only one run, defo more required. 

Interesting that the 6z has a few more members going plume than the 00z suite. That low is going to cause all sorts of headaches until it gets resolved properly. Instead of 5/20 on the 00z, its more like 8 or 9/20. Either way, looks like getting hot and steamy (humidity would be oppressive with this set up) or staying unsettled.

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

Ironically, that FV3 06z run has an east-northeast surface flow while those incredible 850s are over the UK, which pegs the temps back to nothing all that out of the ordinary (high 20s, maybe a few low 30s).

Anyway - it's one possible outcome of a great many with the pattern taking shape late this week and into next. The tropical forcing looks important for determining to what extent a trough by the eastern U.S amplified a ridge that's builds north of the low by Iberia.

A sufficiently strong ridge causes the low to become fully cut-off, with nothing to drive it into W. Europe or the UK. 

As far as I can tell from the height charts, the 00z ECM and UKMO runs must be getting very close. It looks a very sensitive setup to that tropical forcing. Due to each model having its own projection for that forcing, entire ensemble suites will be strongly skewed based on what they're doing with both the MJO and the separate Africa-Indian Ocean tropical activity.


This makes the true chance of more than a glancing blow from the continental heat for the UK impossible to reliably gauge at this time. Climatology does, however, give cause to consider it a low probability unless other models start to show a lot more interest during the next couple of days.

 

By the way, if anyone's wondering why lows seem magnetised to the vicinity of UK when the usual westerlies go on vacation in response to high-latitude blocking, well, it's probably got a lot to do with us being on the north-western periphery of a major boundary in airmass characteristics between the Eurasian continent and the Atlantic Ocean. The type of lows we see draw their energy from the contrast in conditions between one side of the boundary and the other.

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NApplewhite Enthusiast

NApplewhite

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
Posted (edited)

This is showing a brief tropical heatwave next week! i dont believe this will actually happen! there were no signs of this so surely GFS is way off the mark with this!

 

According to Meteogroup temps might reach 23 to 26 on Tuesday then low 20s rest of next week. Just across the Channel in Paris it will be 35 degrees! I hope we can get some of that continental heat after a freezing May and June. Have had the central heating on high all month!

Edited by NApplewhite
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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted
7 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Surely this is a mistake - GFS says 41 degrees C in London at day 10! I bet it's downgraded to 18 degrees by the 12z run!

 

 

Capture_london_41degrees.PNG

Those are 'feels like' temperatures - not actual air temperatures. Just a result of the crazy 6z run with high heat and humidity.

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NApplewhite Enthusiast

NApplewhite

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham
  • Location: Wrexham
Posted
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Those are 'feels like' temperatures - not actual air temperatures. Just a result of the crazy 6z run with high heat and humidity.

Id be happy if it felt like 41!  I'm in London all next week !

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Such pretty charts and only a week away..what could possibly go wrong?:whistling:

06_180_ukthickness850.png

06_204_ukthickness850.png

06_204_mslp850.png

06_228_ukthickness850.png

06_228_mslp850.png

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

GFS stands isolated...

Bit of concern longer term that we may see renewed heights to the north west.

Edited by Polar Maritime
No Meto extended discussion please.
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

The models show there's still a chance of a plume early next week and there's going to be some fireworks tonight and tomorrow for parts of the s / e.

Edited by Polar Maritime
To move discussion on.
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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS stands isolated...

Bit of concern longer term that we may see renewed heights to the north west.

Check the model tweets thread for a couple of links I've posted from Dr Ventrice - a notable shift the last couple of days from forecast low heights over Greenland that has now changed to high pressure again, as well as the NAO forecast going from neutral/positive trending back down to negative again.

AO now also forecast to drop negative once more:

image.thumb.png.168a0547da4c75568f1716cc075922f8.png

Not what we want to see.

Edited by Polar Maritime
Snipped quote.
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Downpour Community Regular

Downpour

Posted
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
  • Location: North East London (E4) 147ft
Posted
41 minutes ago, NApplewhite said:

Id be happy if it felt like 41!  I'm in London all next week !

41c in London would be disgusting. Believe me, you don't want to experience 100F down here!!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
6 minutes ago, Downpour said:

41c in London would be disgusting. Believe me, you don't want to experience 100F down here!!

Interestingly although the uppers (850's) are off the scale sensational, the 2m temps are nowhere near as impressive..all hypothetical though as each run chops and changes so frequently.

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Coopsy Accomplished

Coopsy

Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
Posted
47 minutes ago, Downpour said:

41c in London would be disgusting. Believe me, you don't want to experience 100F down here!!

July 1 2015 we had a 'feels like' temp of 40oC when the air temp was around 35oC and high humidity. I remember walking out of work and gasping for breath after spending all day in an air conditioned office. As for when I got on the tube.....horrendous. I wont be wishing for this anytime soon

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cheeky_monkey Maestro

cheeky_monkey

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted
13 minutes ago, CanadianCoops said:

July 1 2015 we had a 'feels like' temp of 40oC when the air temp was around 35oC and high humidity. I remember walking out of work and gasping for breath after spending all day in an air conditioned office. As for when I got on the tube.....horrendous. I wont be wishing for this anytime soon

Looks like a very similar event to that of July 2015 if it comes off...Calgary and Edmonton got close to 40c last august..if it wasn't for the heavy smoke from the wild fires we might just have made it

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chrisbell-nottheweatherman Accomplished

chrisbell-nottheweatherman

Posted
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Varied and not extreme.
  • Location: South Norfolk, 44 m ASL.
Posted
3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:



 

roasted.png

If that verified, and if, crucially, surface temperatures responded, it could be dreadful.  42C and 70% humidity, possibly? 

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Check the model tweets thread for a couple of links I've posted from Dr Ventrice - a notable shift the last couple of days from forecast low heights over Greenland that has now changed to high pressure again, as well as the NAO forecast going from neutral/positive trending back down to negative again.

AO now also forecast to drop negative once more:

image.thumb.png.168a0547da4c75568f1716cc075922f8.png

Not what we want to see.

I'm just hoping the Atlantic low gets cut off and remains sufficiently South and West to keep the rain bearing fronts away.

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