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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean gives us a chance of a plume in a week's time and the run ends with azores ridging extending towards southern uk.

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4 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean gives us a chance of a plume in a week's time and the run ends with azores ridging extending towards southern uk.

Here's the charts..there's a chance of a plume, whether it's a glancing blow or full on is still to be determined as the models fine tune in the coming days but I would really love a hot few days following this abysmal early summer so far!!!?

EDM0-168.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-240.gif

Edited by Jon Snow
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The EPS mean anomaly once again has rapid but very transient amplification of the subtropical high zones so the danger of 'trapped' upper low is very slight

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And although there are some obvious differences the latter chart is in the ball park as four days ago

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2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Here's the charts..there's a chance of a plume, whether it's a glancing blow or full on is still to be determined as the models fine tune in the coming days but I would really love a hot few days following this abysmal early summer so far!!!?

EDM0-168.gif

EDM1-168.gif

EDM1-240.gif

Be nice to have s bit of that for Glastonbury weekend....

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Good Evening Folks! The models contrast so differently even by T+120.  High level of Shannon Entropy, The gfs is too extreme in its output I feel, past that timescale, but pluming lovely for some in the days ahead.?

WARMING.gif

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Edited by Blessed Weather
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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Dear lord the end of the ecm is horrendous tonight. Takes us right back to square one with huge Greenland and arctic highs linked up and us stuck under the trough yet again. Surely it’s not going to go this way again!

Well if it does, we'll be staring down the barrel of flooding issues.

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Several posts removed this evening. This thread is for model output discussion and not discussing your personal weather preferences. Please head over to the Summer 2019 Moans, Chats and Ramp thread for that.  Thank you.

 

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Whether we benefit from the plume or not next week it looks pretty nailed on that France is going to endure some extreme heat next week with 40C a real likelihood in some places. There is a possibility of breaking the June record (43C) but almost certainly will manage the second hottest June day as it doesn't look like 40C has been breached in June other than that one record day in 1968

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This slow moving pattern with a southerly tracking jet continues to be modeled.

Looking at the 12z ECM run for instance for days 3 and 6

 ECH1-72.thumb.gif.116bddc658375a4d5d6c65bf92cf7674.gifECH1-144.thumb.gif.a0236205ebc7e68e8ddb733fe9f5c37d.gif

This setup shows further trough development digging down towards Iberia encouraging further thundery type lows heading up our way.The one upside with this is the brief import of warmth and humidity it will bring to some areas from the continent between the rain bands.

No doubt Summer has started on a very unsettled and wet note quite widely with the Azores high yet to make any impression further north towards the UK.

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The 18z legacy is still bringing a decent build of high pressure. Low pressure to the South with very warm air being imported North... Just look at those uppers. 

Then into the unknown low pressure settles to the NW.. But temps still pretty impressive... Long way off... Forgive me if I'm a little out folks.. I'm half asleep. 

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Edited by Mattwolves
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The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

gfs-natl_wide-z500_anom-0816000.thumb.png.9996a9ac9429f9cc12128abc851bf2e1.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.33e2858a2b64be7fdcb05ebd3718659b.gif

There are still bits and pieces of showery rain across north Wales and the north of England courtesy of the fading cold front and a more concentrated rain band associated with the occlusion over north west Scotland as today gets underway. But all this is about to change as the first bout of showery activity associated with the upper trough to the south west which is pulling warmer air into the fringes of the UK, starts to effect south west coastal regions by 0800. These showers will spread north east during the day and will be heavy at times with the heavier bursts roughly in an area Dorset to Norfolk, Perhaps some thunder in the mix. Further north the band of rain will turn to frequent showers across N. Ireland and Scotland

PPVE89.thumb.gif.48519dc26dd43a6e313ecb5c8ba5df68.gifgfs-eur-t850_anom_stream-0880800.thumb.png.1f4ee9747daed6c05291d9490f72506a.png979305338_maxtues.thumb.png.0469d9982893a0ad6bd7d35f7b505f91.png

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Overnight a more intense area of a showery activity will track north east from France as the wave gets more organized. The area most effected will be a broad corridor Dorset > south east Midlands > East Anglia and here there could be storms with. hail, lightening and some quite intense downpours. Still some showery activity in the north west

PPVG89.thumb.gif.8a0b5c7d74c17fceb5f982139cd49819.gif590551465_light03.thumb.png.b407e42ccf9857a948d1f6d99e86b45a.pngprecip_d02_28.thumb.png.e1ae64c5a51b665740c6361bc7575ece.pngprecip_d02_30.thumb.png.cb9dc494139c2030d9972f14155509db.pngprecip_d02_33.thumb.png.5d72ffb1917618d8118deb7039b797c3.pngprecip_d02_37.thumb.png.9a6c16cca2f11d7f3c082d1474729380.png

The wave continues to track north east to be centred north of Kings Lynn by midday Wednesday and the shower and storm activity will do like wise, finally clearing into the North Sea by 1400. Still frequent showers in the over N. Ireland and Scotland courtesy of the weakening occlusion

PPVI89.thumb.gif.4e739f590a8cf71ca77795cd9a34b963.gif1286964435_light10.thumb.png.c447a41e171425d87b51c50580cb0911.png1487215257_maxwed.thumb.png.0727ab0dd8e2a003a9e20dcf24aceefd.png

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By Thursday our old upper low is back in play and the are some occlusions tracking south east in the circulation so a very showery day, particularly in the north where they could well be quite heavy and blustery

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1042800.thumb.png.277782bdc3c8fb9a2e371cd7585e5fd8.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.79608be3b5594fdf98f00d712d672bed.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.59c8cdfc322e9f28ff803eac771ae2a6.gif

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An improving scenario over Friday and Saturday as the upper low retreats north and a weak ridge builds over the UK. Thus shower activity will diminish and be confined to the north whilst generally it will be quite sunny if not blazing hot. But note the activity to the west as another upper low creeps closer

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1129200.thumb.png.c899adff632a7f7153b1efae3eecf3c3.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1215600.thumb.png.c766b52478305dfa2c4538c9d93d372c.png

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Edited by knocker
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To continue briefly with the gfs

Through Sunday > Tuesday the Atlantic and European subtropical highs amplify strongly 'Trapping' the upper low.and initiating some intense WAA into Europe. I'll not go into any detail because precisely how this pans out is crucial and the range and ecm need to be taken into account

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1291200.thumb.png.bb62458ac1c0c348622b699bef011d01.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1464000.thumb.png.340213b00b5a79b63d485452fd2ac63d.pnggfs-natl_wide-t850_anom_stream-1464000.thumb.png.2457538820dae3a4bed8438dbadaf101.png

 

Edited by knocker
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Once again the gfs Ops run is part of 5/6 outliers that bifurcate the ensemble pack and hold the cutoff in a favourable position to the southwest and pump an outrageously warm airmass in our direction. The majority of the ensembles are much more progressive and as has low pressure pretty much over the UK and very cool/wet. GEM also backs a very unsettled spell and UKMO at 144hrs appears to going down that route. All eyes on ECM however it looks like the plume scenario is the outlier currently so after potentially a couple of reasonable days at the weekend next week I think looks highly uncertain (probably something like a 75/25 split of favouring a poor outlook) given the spread across available models and their ensembles.

Irrespective of how it ends up here somewhere on the continent likely to see a dangerously hot spell with unusually high humidity, dew points above 25c and heat indices well into the 40s. Sweaty!

Edited by Alderc
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17 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Once again the gfs Ops run is part of 5/6 outliers that bifurcate the ensemble pack and hold the cutoff in a favourable position to the southwest and pump an outrageously warm airmass in our direction. The majority of the ensembles are much more progressive and as has low pressure pretty much over the UK and very cool/wet. GEM also backs a very unsettled spell and UKMO at 144hrs appears to going down that route. All eyes on ECM however it looks like the plume scenario is the outlier currently so after potentially a couple of reasonable days at the weekend next week I think looks highly uncertain (probably something like a 75/25 split of favouring a poor outlook) given the spread across available models and their ensembles.

Irrespective of how it ends up here somewhere on the continent likely to see a dangerously hot spell with unusually high humidity, dew points above 25c and heat indices well into the 40s. Swe

If anything I'd say that the UKMO at 144 is better than the GFS.

GEM - not worth the memory space it takes up. It's only claim to fame is that it was the first to pick up the 2018 Beast from the East.

Even a stopped clock is correct twice a day!

Edited by Djdazzle
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ECM modelling looking similar to today’s ‘warm’ spell about 5/6days ago, glancing blow of high uppers to the extreme south east with a flabby low taking residence over or just west the UK with a relative cool pool in place (compared to Europe), it seems the most likely solution this morning and is similar in some ways to a number of the GFS ensembles. Also of note again by day 9/10 ECM wants to build those northerly heights again and link up the Azores high. So many possible outcomes.....

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A very disappointing ECM too. I think people need to stop dismissing the idea of the trough being dominant again.....it’s there on the GEM, there again on the ECM, the bulk of the gfs ensembles show it, and UKMO looks like treading the same path. Our only hope is that is gets more stuck to the SW than shown.

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

When is a model-run not 'abysmal', 'disappointing', 'vile' or 'poor'? :oldgrin:

I’d say a particular run showing 850s of 0-2c a couple of days from the beginning of July qualifies pretty well! Got to be an outlier surely.

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