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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

Message added by Paul

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Anyone got a good link for ecm precipitation charts for this weeks torrential downpours?

ECM much more muted on the rain threat - 50/60mm by Friday (perhaps a reason why the Met aren't upping the warnings further yet) - but that's quite enough rain anyway I'd have thought! And besides, most of that falls by Tuesday morning so still problematic in the short term I'd have thought.

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The ext EPS and NOAA very much on the same page this evening with a pattern that the former has been indicating for a few days.

Namely an Aleutian low . a slack vortex over the Pole with associated trough eastern Europe and a trough running south into mid Atlantic. A westerly upper flow running south of the latter and the over the UK so probably still changeable but temps creeping above average

index.thumb.png.3a7146ef284943ab41ec29e3d50a125f.png814day_03.thumb.gif.d4158827525ee1443b0432ab2fded891.giftemp.thumb.png.6fab297ff9dd007ff5626a50277dc93c.png

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10 minutes ago, shaky said:

Anyone got a good link for ecm precipitation charts for this weeks torrential downpours?

200mm by Thursday, Could be a real extreme rain event, one for the history books. That's roughly 8 inches of rain and that amount in a short space of time would cause some disasterous severe flooding http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=18&run=12&time=96&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

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9 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM much more muted on the rain threat - 50/60mm by Friday (perhaps a reason why the Met aren't upping the warnings further yet) - but that's quite enough rain anyway I'd have thought! And besides, most of that falls by Tuesday morning so still problematic in the short term I'd have thought.

Yeh looks like its only gfs and arpege going for generous amounts!!not to say its wrong of course!!!

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20 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

200mm by Thursday, Could be a real extreme rain event, one for the history books. That's roughly 8 inches of rain and that amount in a short space of time would cause some disasterous severe flooding http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=18&run=12&time=96&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

lettucing gutted to win the comp, I went for 110, LG went for 200

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Arpege 18Z shifts the 100mm plus rain area to Surrey/Berkshire and the M4 corridor... this is by just Tuesday morning. 

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Arpege 18Z shifts the 100mm plus rain area to Surrey/Berkshire and the M4 corridor... this is by just Tuesday morning. 

So ecm seems off on its predictions right now?!!is that further south compares to 12z or around bout the same🤔

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Just taken a look at 18z gfs and what concerns me is the amount of rainfall on show for the midlands wales and east anglia!!its literally a battering for 3 days straight!!!starts tomorrow morning and continues into early hours thursday!!

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, shaky said:

Just taken a look at 18z gfs and what concerns me is the amount of rainfall on show for the midlands wales and east anglia!!its literally a battering for 3 days straight!!!starts tomorrow morning and continues into early hours thursday!!

Hirlam  also shows large amounts of rain for those areas also    the icon also has areas close to 150 mm could be in for a very wet week 

Edited by weirpig

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8 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Hirlam  also shows large amounts of rain for those areas also    the icon also has areas close to 150 mm could be in for a very wet week 

If it is truue then us midlanders are going to copp it big time!!aint seen values like this predicted in aaages!!shame its not snow lol!!

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1 hour ago, Man With Beard said:

Arpege 18Z shifts the 100mm plus rain area to Surrey/Berkshire and the M4 corridor... this is by just Tuesday morning. 

Main area of concern seems to be pushing S with every run- highlighting how blocking to the N can be underestimated and LPs overstated. To be honest I'd rather be in the main action zone than in the depressing drizzly crud all week.

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Posted (edited)

Euro 4, by 6pm Tuesday some parts already have 50-100mm of rain. East Yorks, Lincolnshire, parts of Kent, North Wales and Some parts of SW England. Going to be some big flooding issues I'd imagine. 

19061118_0918.gif

Edited by Connor Bailey Degnan

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I have a feeling some parts of the Midlands may find themselves submerged in water over the next few days

image.thumb.png.c3cc626dfea081ba14a73681a4f44d80.png

Anywhere between 100-150mm of rain looking at that

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According to the gfs the upper trough does move slowly west over the weekend but then it starts to get a boost from the west and pops back again.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0610800.thumb.png.ac82bdacd8fb25656b20b2bc5aa75651.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-0697200.thumb.png.5b2c61d4017318bdec0dc66deb5ec8bd.png

So continuing unsettled with showers and some longer periods of rain and temps a tad below average

2082243162_rainsat.thumb.png.3a7ed3bb542f1f39bbd13ee2bc128623.png1725998247_rainsun.thumb.png.2aa1e76ef58b846a258750a4c2e624a7.png

 

 

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Posted (edited)
20 hours ago, Why said:

Absolutely, I have no issues with those pointing out the dire output at the moment, it is pretty awful for the heat-seekers among us. If you really need the rain, and are a hayfever sufferer, there are some positives to take from the next 7-10 days mind you! 😄

Those who then write off close to three months of summer based on 2 weeks output though, well they need to pick up their toys, go to another thread and calm down. It contributes nothing and gets in the way of informative posts from @knocker, @Catacol and @Tamara recently, among others. Keep it up guys 🙂 

Just caught up with yesterday. Very kind of you to say this.

Edited by Polar Maritime

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Another god awful GFS run, any hopes of improving conditioning from the Ops run firmly dashed as the Upper trough after about D8 becomes replaced by something resembling a zonal flow with multiple lows traversing the UK, ensembles are just dreadful until the 20th.....

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Posted (edited)

Arpege 00Z is back on track with other models this morning in placing the 100mm rain zone back over Central areas, but look at how big a zone is predicted to get 30mm plus, and even 70mm plus (west Scotland the place to be!) 

arpegeuk-25-102-0.png?10-06

I see that EURO4 is going for 90mm just south west of London by the end of today! (now try not to imagine that as a snow storm 🙂

19061100_1000.gif

Edited by Man With Beard

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Arpege 00Z is back on track with other models this morning in placing the 100mm rain zone back over Central areas, but look at how big a zone is predicted to get 30mm plus, and even 70mm plus (west Scotland the place to be!) 

arpegeuk-25-102-0.png?10-06

ICON giving up to 130mm over parts of the Midlands! Extreme end of the scale but would cause some severe issues for some places should that occur.

It would surely run the wettest June record close for certain locations?

Edited by CreweCold

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38 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

do I smell a change in the offing as we head into the final third of June ????.  greeny heights may be about to finally ‘do one’  .....or is it just a temporary reprieve ????

All I see,  is cold rain being replaced by slightly less cold rain. 

 

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Posted (edited)

Indeed @Man With Beard the West of Scotland is the place to be - lovely day ahead here as you can see.

E3F40F19-F1EB-4B0F-B28E-C41D4DA13F4A.thumb.jpeg.04735009ae5da9ca355cd128c6de33d7.jpeg

Long overdue - basically had heavy rain/torrential downpours on and off for the past 8 days! 

GFS, ECM and Metoffice still not showing much hope for a UK and Ireland wide hot spell anytime soon - plenty of time for that though.

Edit: ECM actually has some hope at day 10...but it always does! Hopefully its spot on for a change! 

7220C13B-BD59-4E55-9014-A476B8D0F53E.thumb.png.1e0e4d1ef674ac4f2f323218522a38e6.pngED795870-99B3-42E5-84D0-F7CF7BA06D52.thumb.png.91a05936196dcb7b3de6d8f74ac1995f.png

In the meantime if it is heat you are after - get yourself on a flight to Rome. 🌞

BFA9AE69-5AA2-434C-94AF-4623342C3885.thumb.png.57ba2f45682ad664ff05645dfb2efc64.png

Have a good week all! 

Edited by Mr Frost

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Well im sat at Doncaster airport waiting to go to Warsaw but i had to have a quick look at NWP and EC looks fabulous..!!

Lets hope its on the ball!!

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