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Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer


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This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

00z UKMO is again showing some extremely high rainfall totals by D6 with up to 150mm locally in England and Wales

us_model-en-999-0_modgbr_2019060800_144_18_157.thumb.png.6af5c4a01f0deb0248a7a844e60e8480.png

 

Intersting. I've just had a weather warning come up on my metoffice app, low likelihood but potential for 30-60mm of rain for East Anglia and East Mids. Not sure what system is bringing this, are other models suggestive of this or is it just a UKMO thing at present? 

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1 hour ago, mushymanrob said:

i have seen the outputs thank you very much, and i stand by the charge that for this week at least they are about as bad as they can get for this time of the year. 

the 'improvements' the ecm and gfs are suggesting for ten days time are of course in fi, and the synoptic patterns expected before then is anything but safe. the problem for me, as i see it, is that theres been an 'improvement' in that timeframe for a week or more now. this unsettled week was only supposed to be a short break from the otherwise rather settled outlook and the 'improvements' were supposed to be taking place now.

the trend has been, is, one of prolonging the unsettled, cool, wet conditions whilst the 'improvements' remain in fi. and these 'improvements' dont (yet) have anomaly support and until they do, ill not be pinning too many hopes on them.

 

unsettled.gif

Fair enough, if you’re talking about this week then yes, the charts are looking poor. But mid term, there are growing trends for a big improvement, which is continued in the GFS 6z.

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13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The models show another week of dross but mid June could be the turning point according to the Gfs / Ecm 00z ops with a more summery second half of the month or at least containing some high pressure and warmth, particularly for southern uk..fingers crossed all of the uk enjoys some sustained fine and warm weather before June is over!?

GFS 06Z shows a great improvement by T+201...Fingers crossed!?

image.thumb.png.6238d17caa678a1ce8739d38e44e23cd.pngimage.thumb.png.8dd84b15dde46444ecac6c9b5f375d34.png

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22 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

Intersting. I've just had a weather warning come up on my metoffice app, low likelihood but potential for 30-60mm of rain for East Anglia and East Mids. Not sure what system is bringing this, are other models suggestive of this or is it just a UKMO thing at present? 

UKMO certainly has higher totals than ECM for your region

UKMO is total to 00z Wednesday      ECM is total rain to 21:00 Tuesday

us_model-en-999-0_modgbr_2019060800_96_7523_157.thumb.png.90ef0423cab10d9a3afd11c0956de092.pngus_model-en-999-0_modez_2019060800_93_20840_157.thumb.png.1bf1bd273c81a3828c012bed984a2b85.png

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10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO certainly has higher totals than ECM for your region

UKMO is total to 00z Wednesday      ECM is total rain to 21:00 Tuesday

us_model-en-999-0_modgbr_2019060800_96_7523_157.thumb.png.90ef0423cab10d9a3afd11c0956de092.pngus_model-en-999-0_modez_2019060800_93_20840_157.thumb.png.1bf1bd273c81a3828c012bed984a2b85.png

you won't post this, but improvement continues on GFS 06Z, around next Sat, wouldn't it be good to get a bit of Summer Sun, eh SS?, not just rain all the time

gfs-0-174.png?6gfs-0-222.png?6

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2 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

00z UKMO is again showing some extremely high rainfall totals by D6 with up to 150mm locally in England and Wales

us_model-en-999-0_modgbr_2019060800_144_18_157.thumb.png.6af5c4a01f0deb0248a7a844e60e8480.png

 

Divide by four then we are probably not far off.

People forget that June is actually generally a wet month. For example May here is 57mm while June is 71mm then July is back to 57mm. So really you should hope for dry weather but expect wet. The runs look pretty grotty at the moment but then we need the rain.

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A very dreadfully poor 06z output. 

I cannot pick a single timeframe out, that at least gives any indication of summer weather whatsoever! Except one or two days of a mediocre high that soon becomes attached to the dreaded never ending Greenland high. 

Diabolical sums it up. I’m getting rings of 2012 looking at this! 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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25 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

you won't post this, but improvement continues on GFS 06Z, around next Sat, wouldn't it be good to get a bit of Summer Sun, eh SS?, not just rain all the time

gfs-0-174.png?6gfs-0-222.png?6

If it makes it into a reliable time frame I'll be posting it unfortunately it's too far out yet and couldn't be more different to last year northern blocking firmly in place now so any settled spells are looking short-lived

2018                                                        2019

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.febe2fa5af9cff689e8854a77d20b02d.png884450006_gfsnh-0-120(1).thumb.png.b7538c88a6ca7da47d5f2c9c8060b771.png

gfsnh-0-222.thumb.png.256f5de56a5af41012c77a79ca1de297.png1518501655_gfsnh-0-222(1).thumb.png.5ef42f8af632c081303508a6f5ed59ef.png

Edited by Summer Sun
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49 minutes ago, pinball wizard said:

Intersting. I've just had a weather warning come up on my metoffice app, low likelihood but potential for 30-60mm of rain for East Anglia and East Mids. Not sure what system is bringing this, are other models suggestive of this or is it just a UKMO thing at present? 

If you look, on Extra, at the 00 and 06Z GFS outputs, they seem fairly similar but the cumulative rainfall is much higher on the 06Z than the 00Z, especially for central and eastern areas.

This fits quite well with the Fax charts currently out from UK Met, see below.

Until the upper trough warms out/moves away then further pulses of wet weather from surface weather systems involved with this upper trough will continue.

https://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

Taking a look at the latest EC-GFS and NOAA 500mb charts suggests the 6-10 day period will continue to have a belt of low heights straddling the Atlantic into the UK beneath the ridging in a similar band north of this. (Not too different to the post from Steve regarding surface ridging).

The NOAA version from last evening is quite similar. Its 8-14 version is still not showing enough of a marked change to even have much faith in any marked change out to 2 weeks ahead.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

Of course the actual weather may end up being rather different, it often makes fools of any of us, and even the professionals at times. But this take to me seems the most likely from what model outputs we can see at the moment.

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The evolution of the EPS over last four days is pretty consistent  so the indications are still on losing the trough over the UK to be replaced by a WSW upper flow.. How benign this is rather depends on whether the subtropical high can get any traction

10-15.thumb.png.c94a70b1215624acf5cd763282297ddb.png6-11.thumb.png.6f484e26398b15878bd9401fab26c340.pngtemp.thumb.png.2d81d06b90d6077855bba93128c60f60.png

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22 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

If it makes it into a reliable time frame I'll be posting it unfortunately it's too far out yet and couldn't be more different to last year northern blocking firmly in place now so any settled spells are looking short-lived

2018                                                        2019

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.febe2fa5af9cff689e8854a77d20b02d.png884450006_gfsnh-0-120(1).thumb.png.b7538c88a6ca7da47d5f2c9c8060b771.png

gfsnh-0-222.thumb.png.256f5de56a5af41012c77a79ca1de297.png1518501655_gfsnh-0-222(1).thumb.png.5ef42f8af632c081303508a6f5ed59ef.png

Aye true SS, let down so many times when settled weather downgrades

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Good turnaround in gfs 00 and 06, strong ridge development next weekend with heights to our North being weakened, but it doesn't last too long the ridge gets sucked into Greenland and throwing UK back to square one.

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1 hour ago, johnholmes said:

If you look, on Extra, at the 00 and 06Z GFS outputs, they seem fairly similar but the cumulative rainfall is much higher on the 06Z than the 00Z, especially for central and eastern areas.

This fits quite well with the Fax charts currently out from UK Met, see below.

Until the upper trough warms out/moves away then further pulses of wet weather from surface weather systems involved with this upper trough will continue.

https://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

Taking a look at the latest EC-GFS and NOAA 500mb charts suggests the 6-10 day period will continue to have a belt of low heights straddling the Atlantic into the UK beneath the ridging in a similar band north of this. (Not too different to the post from Steve regarding surface ridging).

The NOAA version from last evening is quite similar. Its 8-14 version is still not showing enough of a marked change to even have much faith in any marked change out to 2 weeks ahead.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

 

Of course the actual weather may end up being rather different, it often makes fools of any of us, and even the professionals at times. But this take to me seems the most likely from what model outputs we can see at the moment.

Thanks John for that response and to others who chipped in. Makes sense now. 

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2 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Climate change is a term thats now very familiar with everyone on the weather forums -  Most of us are seeing significant impacts on winter patterns ( across the globe ) however this summer may see impacts as well.

Whilst my Winter forecast didn't quite land as projected, one of the key features did occur which is ever intensifying high pressure systems migrating Northwards towards the pole - Significantly Higher thicknesses at the core at northern locales along 70-80N, these features are becoming more frequent & more notable in persistence...

Who can forget the start ( in my opinion )

2010

57B3DC78-0733-4E53-B48F-B438C010B91F.thumb.jpeg.0a31d92f4ef7e4b70c100f7f005eafaf.jpeg

 

More recently 

The chill of November 2018

43A4F5D8-A0AE-4223-B8CF-79C19BC430FF.thumb.jpeg.8e6a7841b1f4813efedf2089102f856f.jpeg

The heat of Feb 19 ( 21.2c )

4D845B45-3640-4D16-A93A-1D24649A5FC3.thumb.jpeg.8475324cec267467a92dba1ab4746ebd.jpeg

Now fast forward to Summer 19-

We have swept into a negative phase of the NAO - something not observed for some considerable time-

Next weeks high pressure migrating towards Greenland is more evidence of this- Also NB is part of a more defined amplified flow across the globe-

D6ACB94E-111B-4993-92EA-A0E746D7931D.thumb.jpeg.3b32c76ce1a9625bc0abeb69f03eeedf.jpeg

 

This is responsible for bring unseasonable cold to areas including parts of the UK with the jet straddling us - equally though thats a lot of heat being pumped North into the Arctic..

A pattern with a very defined Strong -ENAO does not promote a good Summer for the UK, its a central / Eastern Europe boiler !

* However * Should this signal weaken or indeed just shift slightly west & pull the trough with it then we can tap that continental heat ---

Things very finely balanced as it stands!

In these scenario Rainfall is generally still reduced in frequency but tends to be increased ( sometimes substantially ) in intensity - again like we are seeing today...

Best

S

On the other hand from 2013/14 to 2016/17 we had zero Northern blocking in winter, so I'm not buying that. I agree with someone's point made a while ago that with climate change, patterns are being stuck in place for far longer than normal.

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3 hours ago, The PIT said:

Divide by four then we are probably not far off.

People forget that June is actually generally a wet month. For example May here is 57mm while June is 71mm then July is back to 57mm. So really you should hope for dry weather but expect wet. The runs look pretty grotty at the moment but then we need the rain.

Must be a location thing. June is the driest summer month down here given the higher likelihood of high pressure systems overhead than later on in the summer. May is on average that bit wetter as southerly lows often plague the south.

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42 minutes ago, MP-R said:

Must be a location thing. June is the driest summer month down here given the higher likelihood of high pressure systems overhead than later on in the summer. May is on average that bit wetter as southerly lows often plague the south.

For most of the UK late spring (April for Leeds) tends to be driest month because June sees an anomolous increase in the westerlies (European monsoon as it is referred to sometimes) vs May and July. By July and August however showers distort figures.

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37 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:

For most of the UK late spring (April for Leeds) tends to be driest month because June sees an anomolous increase in the westerlies (European monsoon as it is referred to sometimes) vs May and July. 

Yes I'm still waiting for one of those. Westerly Junes more often than not follow westerly Mays. I suppose some recent years when it wasn't the case were 2016 and 2008, which both produced wet Mays down here and dry (if rather cloudy and boring) Junes. Sometimes it works the other way and an easterly June follows a westerly May like 2009 or 2013.

Funnily enough, it's the months that have the meridionally swerving jet that produce the wettest conditions down here, such as this month so far and what the models have been showing continuing for at least the next week.

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