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Paul

Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

Paul

This thread = Models, models and more models
Please remember that this thread is for discussing the model output only. If you want to chat about the summer weather more generally, please use the Summer chat and moans thread.

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The Netweather NMM Model seems much more in line with what I would expect in regards to surface temperatures. Take Friday for example.

Friday.thumb.png.dded460a773fcc047df0f88ee113e399.png

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Judging by some of the posts in here tonight I may need to rejig my temperature prediction in the competition... I said 36.7c. Looks like switching it to 16.7c. Anyweather if your listening mate, get back on and give us some HLB.... ITS FAR LESS STRESSFUL!  Here is one from the Navgem 18z before I go.... Peachy.... 

navgem-1-126.png

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4 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

But what I'm showing really isn't limited to the 18z and its fine details that make or break unusual spells of weather. That is something we should all know.

As I mentioned earlier, noteworthy spells of weather will never happen if their onset keeps getting dealyed by 6 hours with every run. It will only get closer once we start seeing these same charts at the same timestep. Monday and Tuesday are looking unsettled now and if last weeks output had persisted the heatwave would be established by Tuesday.

The heat could very easily get bottled up over France and we are left with the remains of a plume to the far SE that is weaker in intensity.

It depends what model you use really. The likes of the UKMO/ECM have been consistent in the arrival of the 20c isotherm for around Thursday morning, in fact it had been delayed further on these models when they factored in this stronger surface high. 

More concerning for me is the consistently rather mediocre temperatures (even when we do get a favourable wind direction).

So the 00z suite, UKMO cuts off that North Sea flow on Thursday so Friday and Saturday have the potential to be very hot.

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Posted (edited)

GFS 00z from Tuesday to Saturday!

0C3E88F0-CBCA-4C20-87A3-0C7CEA101073.thumb.png.01330337ab3787ca23b6252557b75eaf.png273AEE28-43B6-450B-8906-903394D953B9.thumb.png.8be0b48e68e9d4cb990553ddeb5525ab.png835E3B37-138D-47F1-99E5-6E12E25E18B3.thumb.png.7b6fe633eae0bf1de812164f80bb3b06.png9AF0E608-7E5F-424B-A49B-B0F16EE93BE5.thumb.png.78d4999af20fa6fe2f3d241707e57757.png8BE11538-A522-48BD-9DFC-10C0DFB59CB4.thumb.png.7b05b323ffcaa7a0c427268dd57501e0.png

Whats going on here!? Much of the heat for this period has shifted to my backyard. (West of Scotland)

Saturday looks toasty down South.

Surely the GFS is wrong as I can’t see much of a heatwave.

Next Sunday is currently not that special...

2692B42B-9BFB-48B3-8880-F7FE02B68A9C.thumb.png.cc7257fd9e1417f888148300514884cc.png

Edited by Mr Frost

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The ICON, GEM and JMA all in agreement that Friday will be the peak of the plume, and all show the 25c isotherm making it to us. 

ICON

777115191_ICONThursday.thumb.png.662c24cd6b6d230b30f77a463d94c352.png   1373798286_ICONFRIDAY.thumb.png.0827ac3d131c42a0e523ee49548990b7.png

GEM

108735431_THursayGEm.thumb.png.9b169842e77bd53a94080a31b6373ed9.png   1202184114_NAVGEMFRIDAY.thumb.png.5a7860ea0de722e9ea17543493d5bf7f.png

 

JMA

1171366434_JMAFriday.thumb.png.373d680883b645cc8323033165f619f3.png


It appears to be only the GFS that is up to it's usual tricks of pessimism and backtracking. It is also very interesting to see that the Met Office are issuing forecasts of 33c even on Wednesday. This shows how unsure and rather difficult to predict everything will be. 

I think it's safe to say that this is going to be rather a freak plume and has real potential to set records. 

I am still sticking by my prediction of 36c being breached. While surface temperatures are strangely low on some models, it is quite apparent how high these upper air temperatures will be,  with us possibly even getting the 25c isothern introduced.

I think if you look at the whole picture, you have to say that's it's going to be very very hot indeed.  
 

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2 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

GFS 00z from Tuesday to Saturday!

0C3E88F0-CBCA-4C20-87A3-0C7CEA101073.thumb.png.01330337ab3787ca23b6252557b75eaf.png273AEE28-43B6-450B-8906-903394D953B9.thumb.png.8be0b48e68e9d4cb990553ddeb5525ab.png835E3B37-138D-47F1-99E5-6E12E25E18B3.thumb.png.7b6fe633eae0bf1de812164f80bb3b06.png9AF0E608-7E5F-424B-A49B-B0F16EE93BE5.thumb.png.78d4999af20fa6fe2f3d241707e57757.png8BE11538-A522-48BD-9DFC-10C0DFB59CB4.thumb.png.7b05b323ffcaa7a0c427268dd57501e0.png

Whats going on here!? Much of the heat for this period has shifted to my backyard -  (West of Scotland)

Saturday looks toasty down South.

Surely the GFS is wrong? 

It is 100% wrong. This is a common occurrence. 

The ECM, and pretty much all the other models strongly disagree with it. 

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Posted (edited)

Following on briefly with the gfs.

Obviously the key here is the movement of the warm front which is pretty much governed by the position of the ridge which itself is governed by the specifics of the evolution. I'm going to leave it here as I'm sure there will be other interpretations this morning

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1723200.thumb.png.62183335dc0fadc99a4a6a1ac5bd8684.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-1809600.thumb.png.b35c4ae9afd431fce0ed98897d597c8f.png

frid.thumb.png.47754525d112aeab51d918e17a39049e.pngsat.thumb.png.b6bad279b22db93f472bd5bd74c53577.png

 

Edited by knocker

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

CAN WE HIT THE BIG 40?

Overnight UKMO is STEAMING !

> 35c deffo there...

A perfect SSE draw from the continent....

Further below is the ICON 00z 

T2M for Thursday ( note 42c at 8pm over Paris )

850 temps ( ~circa +24c ) Friday showing that lot is moving NNW 

It will feel >40c.

06985194-1929-4855-8559-B12FC7F7CCBF.thumb.jpeg.78cad3e343bf7a9093f3ba85a7904393.jpeg14074EC6-FFD1-403A-ACA2-020B822155A9.thumb.jpeg.81e13f3b8d94ffe26ec8fa7bb9c7f1c9.jpeg

 

EC4C4AB2-AE94-44AE-B60E-5295B45A278F.thumb.jpeg.3adee4dba7205c470c331bdedc998843.jpeg8AA796E5-E92C-4F78-93F7-76A2F3EF242F.thumb.jpeg.36928e15def4da376b136527e8d1e312.jpeg

 

No, 40c will not be threatened.

I'd say it's preety much nailed on for me that the June record will go however. Very intresting that 3 models are showing the 25c isothern in the UK. That would be unheard of and would give us possibly 37-38c.

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I can't get the link to work but the latest fax chart has a very weak warm front in the channel by Thursday lunchtime - to the south, we have a bubble of 582dam air in N France - if/when this front clears into the UK, that's when the really high temperatures will become available, I guess. 

Running out of time for this to miss now, certainly in the south anyway. 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I can't get the link to work but the latest fax chart has a very weak warm front in the channel by Thursday lunchtime - to the south, we have a bubble of 582dam air in N France - if/when this front clears into the UK, that's when the really high temperatures will become available, I guess. 

Running out of time for this to miss now, certainly in the south anyway. 

I did include it in my first post MWB 😉

Edited by knocker

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, matty007 said:

It is 100% wrong. This is a common occurrence. 

The ECM, and pretty much all the other models strongly disagree with it. 

ECM didn’t disagree last night, despite the 25+C uppers it had tmax’s pinned in the low twenties for most places. Only the south west made it above 25c through the later part of the week as the surface air takes a long sea track over the north sea. This mornings GFS is exactly the same, cloud / debris is not causing the suppressed maxes and the closest thing I can liken it too is the marine layer that Southern California experiences at this time of year where high 850s spill westwards from the desert interior but the surface flow comes from the cool Pacific leading to fog and temps in the low 20s an that’s with SSTs around 15-18c not the 12-14c currently in the North Sea. 

My feel is there could be some unusual temperature gradients across the UK later in the week, parts of the east coast could be struggling under sea fog and 16-20c while the West Country, E+W borders and south coasts west of the IOW see the highest temperatures - that’s why I went for Cheltenham to record the highest temperature. 

Also appears like the convective activity could be hard to come by later on, surface based storms look very highly, anything if at all would likely highly elevated given the profile of the atmosphere. 

God awful post 192hrs this morning, let’s hope GFS bins that idea.....

Edited by Alderc

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Posted (edited)

These are the facts, the first half of the week ahead isn't hot, it's warm and humid high teens to low 20's c with a lot of cloud and thundery rain early in the week..it's later in the week when it becomes hot with temperatures for some into the low 30's c.

Edited by Jon Snow

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Posted (edited)

Here's what the models think will spoil the party this week. Thursday - upper air wind flow starting to become continental from the south, and working northwards

114-308UK.GIF?23-0

Surface air flow - always off the north sea and with a long sea track. Also, a brisk wind in the south 

114-602UK.GIF?23-0

To get back to the high temperatures more widely on Thursday/Friday, we just need one of a few subtle changes - lighter winds, slight change in pressure set-up to avoid an exclusive sea track of surface winds, or a northward shift of the pattern. 

The alternative, a southern shift of the pattern (very possible) might reduce the ferocity of the upper air, but actually result in hotter weather, with the wind dropping. 

Areas sheltered by high ground in the SW/Wales are my tip for high temperatures at this stage. 

I note very light winds for W Scotland - could we see some surprisingly good temperatures there, even under lower uppers? 

Edited by Man With Beard

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5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

These are the facts, the first half of the week ahead isn't hot, it's warm and humid high teens to low 20's c with a lot of cloud and thundery rain early in the week..it's later in the week when it becomes hot with temperatures for some into the low 30's c.

Errm make that Saturday for more widespread heat. The southwest on Friday may become hot. Yes quite a improvement some pleasant weather to look forward too. I suspect the change has probably killed any storm chances for many though.

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Here's what the models think will spoil the party this week. Thursday - upper air wind flow starting to become continental 

114-308UK.GIF?23-0

Surface air flow - always off the north sea and with a long sea track. Also, a brisk wind in the south 

114-602UK.GIF?23-0

To get back to the high temperatures more widely on Thursday/Friday, we just need one of a few subtle changes - lighter winds, slight change in pressure set-up to avoid an exclusive sea track of surface winds, or a northward shift of the pattern. 

The alternative, a southern shift of the pattern (very possible) might reduce the ferocity of the upper air, but actually result in hotter weather, with the wind dropping. 

Areas sheltered by high ground in the SW/Wales are my tip for high temperatures at this stage. 

I note very light winds for W Scotland - could we see some surprisingly good temperatures there, even under lower uppers? 

Yes indeed MWB and specifically a shift in the orientation of the ridge.

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Posted (edited)

Very impressive uppers (850's) at least, although surface wind flow and low cloud from the north sea could severely dent the 2m temps.. shame but I think further west / northwest could do very nicely..finer details still to be resolved though and it's above my pay grade to know how things will ultimately work out.

Edited by Jon Snow

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Regardless of the Thurs/Fri shenanigans, Saturday continues to be modelled as a very hot day quite widely, and I note the heat is slightly slower to clear into Sunday morning 

ECU0-168.GIF?23-12

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31 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

These are the facts, the first half of the week ahead isn't hot, it's warm and humid high teens to low 20's c with a lot of cloud and thundery rain early in the week..it's later in the week when it becomes hot with temperatures for some into the low 30's c.

Mate its going to be 26-27 in the SE today then 30c by weds - not sure where your plucking those low values from -

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Posted (edited)

The ecm surface charts for Frid/Sat

919918213_surffr.thumb.png.6f84708f9ef79d47f60b332862077c4c.png1836792459_surfsat.thumb.png.dbc59e74f036c391496dc81662cac7e2.png

882832729_maxfr.thumb.png.13d6914013e48a95527c351ec8b66517.pngindex.thumb.png.1f02572c37f21edc7a4736d6c7cac236.png

Edited by knocker

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3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Mate its going to be 26-27 in the SE today then 30c by weds - not sure where your plucking those low values from -

People are completely judging by the GFS. Which has been proven to be pessemstic and inaccurate so many times. When you see 20-25c upper air temps and only 27c maxes, you know not to take it seriosuly.

All the other models show heat, and very strong heat indeed.

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morning  all looking at the radar   and what is near the west country  things could get  very thundry  soon 

gfs-2-18.png

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Mate its going to be 26-27 in the SE today then 30c by weds - not sure where your plucking those low values from -

Think he is speaking about the UK as a whole , temperature variations across the country have been indicated by others

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