Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Part of me wants it to trend further west, because in reality these plumes often get shunted east as the time approaches.

Agreed that’s a good shout.....going to be interesting to see where this sits in the ensembles - I actually can’t believe this given I’m sat here with my four year who keeps asking to go in the garden but can’t because it’s chucking it down again....

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

3 minutes ago, cfbath said:

Lots of words being thrown about that are going completely over my head.

Is a plume good or bad? (bearing in mind i'd like warm and dry weather)

Are we on a knife edge in terms of thunder and heavy rain?

To put in to simple words, i'm going to Glastonbury and will be on site Tues 25th - Mon 1st July and not knowing what weather I could be getting is breaking me!

This to my eyes is looking equally as good, if not better for some terrific storms as July 26/27th last year. Records could well be under threat, especially the June all time record judging by the 06z output. 

We could possibly be seeing a real mothership MCS or supercells anywhere between Monday and Thursday that’s for sure. 

Something to definitely keep an eye on. 

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well well well.

As it stands, a massive coup for the GFS model as this was the 1st model to go for a plume with the others, specifically EC , not interested.

Crazy times, a dreadful June looks primed to throw up one of the most impressive plumes since, erm, not sure actually.

Just waiting for the Gem to join the party!

[Methuselah]

We could be in for some uncomfortable nights, next week, given the high daytime temps and high nighttime RH values...?

[danm]

9 minutes ago, cfbath said:

Lots of words being thrown about that are going completely over my head.

Is a plume good or bad? (bearing in mind i'd like warm and dry weather)

Are we on a knife edge in terms of thunder and heavy rain?

To put in to simple words, i'm going to Glastonbury and will be on site Tues 25th - Mon 1st July and not knowing what weather I could be getting is breaking me!

A plume is perfect is you like hot weather. However, plumes are usually short lived affairs but bring some of our hottest weather. 

For Glastonbury, as it’s in the SW (closer to the cut off low), you’re more likely to see heavy, thundery showers than places further east. But it will be hot (if the charts verify). 

[mb018538]

As most of you can probably tell a lot of the time in here i'm a hopeless pessimist.

However:



ECM day 8 clusters all have the plume showing in a form.

By day 10 is where we have the real crunch - cluster 1 and 2 keep the low away and the heat on tap, whereas cluster 3 starts to move the low through. However it's now 66% plume continuing, and 33% shunted away. Odds now in favour rather than against. Even i'm starting to think about what could be on the horizon!!

[mushymanrob]

3 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

I see the hysteria has started , it's amazing that when the weather was less settled it was all FI now it's all showing potentially plumes and thunder and unbearable heat and humidity it's been talked about as dead certainties,  if the charts are similar or better by weekend then I might take notice but not yet

the hysteria has started because seasoned model watchers can see something rather special starting in 5 days time.

there is cross model support

there is support between runs

there is strong support from the consistent anomaly charts.

so its pretty much odds on that theres very likely to be a heatwave early next week, as theres very strong support for such an evolution.  of course the devils in the detail, so perhaps the record breaking possibilities are being over stated but some heat event is pretty certain.

wonderful chart

 

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

We could be in for some uncomfortable nights, next week, given the high daytime temps and high nighttime RH values...?

Can't wait, even here at castle black the swirling snow could turn to rain next week!!!..joking aside, the models have so far today increased our chances of a spanish plume next week which may not be a blink and miss it affair!!!..fingers crossed we are in for our first major heat of this summer next week, after the utter dross so far...we deserve it!!

 

Edited June 19, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Derecho]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well well well.

As it stands, a massive coup for the GFS model as this was the 1st model to go for a plume with the others, specifically EC , not interested.

Crazy times, a dreadful June looks primed to throw up one of the most impressive plumes since, erm, not sure actually.

It does seem so, perhaps it has improved performance but just has a problem converting 850s to surface temps. Seems bit odd but heyho credit where it is due the GFS could have picked this up first (if it verifies...) 

[Guest]

13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

We could be in for some uncomfortable nights, next week, given the high daytime temps and high nighttime RH values...?

Good, I can turn the heating off. GFS has some lovely mins comfortably above 20c next week. Midweek bbqs and beer garden evenings

[Man With Beard]

23 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

I see the hysteria has started , it's amazing that when the weather was less settled it was all FI now it's all showing potentially plumes and thunder and unbearable heat and humidity it's been talked about as dead certainties,  if the charts are similar or better by weekend then I might take notice but not yet

I was waiting for a comment like this - perhaps worth restating, because I don't expect everyone to read all our posts, that people like me and @Alderc still slightly favour more influence from the trough than the ops show, simply because the shift in the models has been too sudden to be sure of it, and because cut-off trough activity is very unpredictable beyond say T96. 

I just enjoy discussing possibilities, that's all. And no-one can say the potential isn't there - this morning's clusters show the trough in A1 position by T192 for a plume (EDIT: @mb018538 I see you beat me to it)

However, heat unlikely to last into the following week, with a return to a NW ridge possible

 

Edited June 19, 2019 by Man With Beard

[Coopsy]

It's looking more likely than not at this stage that some warm/very warm air might come our way.

Edited June 19, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, CanadianCoops said:

It's looking more likely than not at this stage that some warm/very warm air might come our way, but if you thought the ramping was bad in winter on here......

Thinking the same.   Im sure there will be heat next week  but probably between the mid to high 20c   maybe a 30c   somewhere in  the South East    which is wonderful  considering the past month or so we have had. 

[northwestsnow]

6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

I was waiting for a comment like this - perhaps worth restating, because I don't expect everyone to read all our posts, that people like me and @Alderc still slightly favour more influence from the trough than the ops show, simply because the shift in the models has been too sudden to be sure of it, and because cut-off trough activity is very unpredictable beyond say T96. 

I just enjoy discussing possibilities, that's all. And no-one can say the potential isn't there - this morning's clusters show the trough in A1 position by T192 for a plume (EDIT: @mb018538 I see you beat me to it)

However, heat unlikely to last into the following week, with a return to a NW ridge possible

 

I wont be paying too much attention to charts at day 10 onwards, EC and its ens didnt even see the plume potential at day 7/8 only yesterday

Edited June 19, 2019 by northwestsnow

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, weirpig said:

Thinking the same.   Im sure there will be heat next week  but probably between the mid to high 20c   maybe a 30c   somewhere in  the South East    which is wonderful  considering the past month or so we have had. 

Maybe... but the difference is some more intense heat now has good support across the GFS, ECM and UKMO (upto T144) models. Could still go wrong but its looking less likely that it will at the moment.

Reminds me of the plume we had during June 2017 which followed a very wet first half and saw temperatures upto 35C in one or two spots.

[StormChaseUK]

June 2019 if next week came off is a bit like an arcade machine,  pays nothing out then all of a sudden £50 in one go

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 6z mean is a cracker next week..plumescent indeed!!

Edited June 19, 2019 by Jon Snow

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Loving the current "August 2003" style trending and although this is the most gorgeous plume ive seen modelled it would certainly bring a reasonable low 30C for my area and mid 30s to the SE if those 850s are to be believed.  But surely there is still time for this plume to downgrade and a lot of the heat get watered away to the East (as they tend to usually do) so lets not get too overly excited yet,.

[weirpig]

6 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Maybe... but the difference is some more intense heat now has good support across the GFS, ECM and UKMO (upto T144) models. Could still go wrong but its looking less likely that it will at the moment.

Reminds me of the plume we had during June 2017 which followed a very wet first half and saw temperatures upto 35C in one or two spots.

I agree it could be warmer   But in this scenario i can see the main body of heat nudging further east as we approach D Day.   off course it may not   and all of the country ( not just the South East )  may come under the influence of the higher uppers and Temps.   As it stands i believe that the Bulk of England will be under uppers of around 16   which in itself will bring temps around the high 20s    of course as always time will tell  

Edited June 19, 2019 by weirpig

[danm]

59 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Maybe... but the difference is some more intense heat now has good support across the GFS, ECM and UKMO (upto T144) models. Could still go wrong but its looking less likely that it will at the moment.

Reminds me of the plume we had during June 2017 which followed a very wet first half and saw temperatures upto 35C in one or two spots.

It hit 37c that day in London. It was oppressively hot! 

Edit: thought the post was re 2015. It didn’t hit 37c in 2017

Edited June 19, 2019 by danm

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The GEFS 6z mean is a cracker next week..plumescent indeed!!

As posted previously, im the first one to slate GFS,but on this occasion it has been leading the way.

MIB posted only yesterday morning i think it was, that none of the 51 EC ens saw this plume..

 

[northwestsnow]

The metoffice update for next week will be fascinating, i wonder if it will reflect the 00z runs, esp now EC is on board!!

[Gordon Webb]

4 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Loving the current "August 2003" style trending and although this is the most gorgeous plume ive seen modelled it would certainly bring a reasonable low 30C for my area and mid 30s to the SE if those 850s are to be believed.  But surely there is still time for this plume to downgrade and a lot of the heat get watered away to the East (as they tend to usually do) so lets not get too overly excited yet,.

point I was trying to make but put in a much better fashion than I managed

[Scorcher]

1 hour ago, Djdazzle said:

Be interesting to know with identical synoptics, what would be the potential difference in maxima with damp ground compared to dry?

I think people are overstating this personally. Worth noting that much of the country now has a few dry days forecast which should dry the ground out nicely.

It's not going to be cracking the flags but evaporation happens so quickly and easily at this time of year anyway.

I think the issue of dry/wet ground is more relevant if we're looking for high temps from home grown heat- with us importing such incredibly warm air next week from a long way south I don't think we need to worry about how dry the ground is.

[Derecho]

7 minutes ago, weirpig said:

I agree it could be warmer   But in this scenario i can see the main body of heat nudging further east as we approach D Day.   off course it may not   and all of the country ( not just the South East )  may come under the influence of the higher uppers and Temps.   As it stands i believe that the Bulk of England will be under uppers of around 16   which in itself we bring temps around the high 20s    of course as always time will tell  

Aye well according to the GFS ensembles 15 support a good plume early next week (15C isotherm over UK) and 7 don't which is a pretty good ratio. Also a lot of runs go for another shot at a more intense plume later but that is further outside the reliable timerange.