Model Output Discussion - The Start Of Summer

[Methuselah]

Nowt that great about the 06Z GEFS ensembles:

 

 

Though it does rely on fewer input data...

[Guest]

Ok so lots of uncertainties about where highest precip totals will be in the coming few days, pretty understandable given the mesoscale features that are likely to pop up, longer term the only real inconsistency is the models in the D8-10 range are being over-zealous with the breakdown of the northerly heights. If the pattern breaks it could be likely that the Atlantic breaking through with a flat west to east Jet is just as likely as high pressure building from the east. Personally I don't see a northeast extension of the Azores being the light at the end of the tunnel.

GFS 06Z is just grim once again. Hard to see how June won't be at least 10 wettest on record, likely to be in the bottom 10 dullest as well....

[Craig84]

Ok, now we’re getting somewhere. I’ll bank this 144 ukmo.

 

Trough pulling back west, jet aligning SW-NE and pressure rising from the south

[johnholmes]

8 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

but surely john, there IS science behind it somewhere, just because i cant articulate it doesnt mean it doesnt exist ... because patterns repeat themselves and thats why we get 'long hot summers', 'washout summers' , droughts, etc. whatever causes that must have a scientific explanation.

it cannot be ignored that many washout/wet/poor summers started in early june often after a rather dry spring ... 98, 99, 07, 08, 12, are all examples .

of course there is no unwritten law , a wet start to june doesnt 'write off' summer, but going off previous similar examples of such patterns it would suggest that a 'poor' summer, at least for the first half, is more likely then any drift towards a more settled/dry/warm pattern emerging.

lets face it, the greenland block is going nowhere fast, and until that weakens/declines/moves, a change in the current poor/wet outlook is unlikely . any such change remains firmly in f.i.





 

Sorry m only just noticed this

My comment was that some seem to dismiss a whole season based on a few days of it not showing what they would like to see. That is not scientific.

Nor has anyone, professional or amateur, come up with solid proof of links such as you give in your third paragraph.

 

Edited June 10, 2019 by johnholmes
wrong place sent via pm

[johnholmes]

Looking at the current output for ppn totals and the 06z the area of maximum values has increases considerably. Computer rainfall totals are quite often not correct (too high and sometimes too low) so it is hard to work out just what maximum amounts are going to fall and exactly where. One can only assume from how the folk at Exeter are reaxting that the highest totals are causing them real concern.

[seabreeze86]

GFS maxing out at 139mm over the next few days for some widely 60+ mm. Flooding inevitable if anything like this falls. Hopefully well over done

Edit 152mm actually 

Edited June 10, 2019 by seabreeze86

[knocker]

 

 

Edited June 10, 2019 by knocker

[Djdazzle]

Surprised there aren’t more comments on the GFS 12z. Again, looking more promising in a week’s time. Despite what some say, continues trough influence over the U.K. is not set in stone for the rest of the month.

 

[mb018538]

3 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Surprised there aren’t more comments on the GFS 12z. Again, looking more promising in a week’s time. Despite what some say, continues trough influence over the U.K. is not set in stone for the rest of the month.

 

Quite. Even if it ends up a bit flatter with a west to east flow, it’ll be a million times better than now, and no flooding rains for hours on end. Pressure finally looks to be faking around Iceland and Greenland, so that’s only a good sign. Onwards and upwards.

[Scorcher]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

Surprised there aren’t more comments on the GFS 12z. Again, looking more promising in a week’s time. Despite what some say, continues trough influence over the U.K. is not set in stone for the rest of the month.

 

It's because a lot prefer to moan and actually enjoy it. Watch a lot of people disappear from this thread as soon as things improve. And yes you're right, that's the best GFS run for quite some time. Nothing outstanding but temps would rise to average and then slightly above, for the southern half of the UK at least:

Perhaps one of the most promising signs though, is pressure gradually lowering over Greenland. With high pressure building to our east it's certainly a recipe for something a lot warmer for the second half of the month.

[Methuselah]

By T+144, GFS op has LP moving away westward and northward; by T+384, all signs of HLB have disappeared: Nonetheless, I'm sure there's enough there to keep the moaners happy?

T+144  

T+384  

[Methuselah]

FV3 at T144:  

So, maybe not settled, but it'll certainly be feeling pleasanter, away from any rain

At T384 - once again, Greenland heights are all but gone:

 

Edited June 10, 2019 by Ed Stone

[Mike Poole]

I've much less time to post on here now (!), so an occasional update from me...

An awful week weather wise, this one, but strong signs that when we get through this summer will get going.  First model output from the 12z suite, UKMO leading the charge at T144:

Move on to T180 with the ICON, GFS and FV3:

Probably not worth bothering with operational output beyond here given the uncertainty, but some good signs that the Greenland high era is coming to an end and an extended Azores ridge may be the way forward, if so it's taken a while, hasn't it!  GEFS 12z mean at T240 supportive:

Two other things, one which is remaining constant, the other is changing, first sea surface temperatures remain supportive of a tendency to push the jet north should it ever get in vaguely the right place!

Changing, according to CFS is atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) which is set to go through the roof and quickly too:

So see this week out. And a major pattern change looks afoot...we will see.

Regards, Mike

Edited June 10, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Cheshire Freeze]

In the further outlook we're seeing signs today that the Greenland HP- UK trough scenario will relent to be replaced by a ridge-trough regime. The jet stream looks further S and more active than last year, so a pattern of short fine spells followed by something more unsettled could bed in further down the line.

Edited June 10, 2019 by CreweCold

[Methuselah]

12Z GEFS ensembles are again suggestive of a warming trend:

 

And (perhaps unsurprisingly) a drying trend too:

 

[knocker]

The 300mb wind field which initially facilitates the 'fixing' of the upper trough over the UK but them helps to shift it

[mb018538]

ECM isn’t bad either. Not as settled as the 00z, but that’s irrelevant. The pattern change is still there....could we finally be shifting this godawful pattern at long last?!

[Djdazzle]

There is growing support for the pattern change, if the jet then heads north like some are suggesting will happen, we could have a warm / very warm final third of June.

[049balt]

Time for another update from Tamara?

[mountain shadow]

I'm not seeing what others are seeing. Looks like a continuance of unsettled to me.

 

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm not seeing what others are seeing. Looks like a continuance of unsettled to me.

 

Will be more unsettled up north, but it no way is it a continuation of the current horrific weather.

[Scorcher]

14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm not seeing what others are seeing. Looks like a continuance of unsettled to me.

 

Definitely not for England and Wales. It could well warm up quite considerably. How can you not see a difference between this week's charts and the ones for around a week's time?

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Definitely not for England and Wales. It could well warm up quite considerably. How can you not see a difference between this week's charts and the ones for around a week's time?

Because they don’t look at the charts.

ECM 12z mean looks good too.

Edited June 10, 2019 by Djdazzle

[knocker]

The EPS predicted difference in pattern

Edited June 10, 2019 by knocker

[Wimbledon88]

GFS going for another southerly tracking low late next week. Given how well they modelled this current spell, it looks very likely. Any improvement, if it occurs, will be short lived.