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Roger J Smith

June 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests

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11 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

EWP starts in 1766. This is a list of all cases you mentioned, ranked by June EWP, plus in italics any that were close (wetter than 95 mm and cooler than 14.0). The July and August CET and EWP values are listed for each. The warmest month of each summer is highlighted in red. Of the 35 Junes with more than 100 mm, only twelve were excluded on the basis of being too warm. Of the six Junes 95-99.9 mm, three were excluded. The next two, not in this list (1954 and 1968) produced the next excluded June (1968 was 14.8, in 43rd position). So that made 27/43 of the wettest Junes cooler than 14.1 C. Another eight were cooler than the current June normal of 14.5 C (so a total of 35/43 wet Junes were below normal by modern standards, and June has not been changing as fast as most months either, its warmest 30-year average came in 1822-51.).

Analysis follows the lists.

Wet Junes that had CET values below 14.1 C.

YEAR ____ June CET, EWP ______July CET, EWP___Aug CET, EWP

2012 ______ 13.5 __160.1 _______ 15.5 __120.7 ____ 16.6 __ 94.2

1860 ______ 12.3 __157.1 _______ 14.5 __ 65.2 ____ 13.6 __148.5

1768 ______ 13.9 __148.7 _______ 15.6 __121.9 ____ 16.0 __ 91.6

1879 ______ 12.9 __139.3 _______ 13.6 __121.4 ____ 14.5 __148.5

1797 ______ 13.6 __134.9 _______ 17.3 __ 79.4 ____ 15.8 __ 114.8 

1852 ______ 13.2 __134.1 _______ 18.7 __ 68.0 ____ 15.8 __ 134.9

1830 ______ 12.7 __128.9 _______ 16.2 __ 94.0 ____ 13.7 __ 98.2 

1789 ______ 14.0 __128.0 _______ 15.4 __128.0 ____ 16.6 __ 39.6

1980 ______ 13.8 __123.3 _______ 14.7 __ 75.8 ____ 15.9 __ 88.9

1769 ______ 13.1 __122.8 _______ 16.4 __ 56.9 ____ 15.0 __ 98.8

1912 ______ 13.9 __122.4 _______ 16.1 __ 94.4 ____ 12.9 __192.9

1784 ______ 13.7 __120.1 _______ 15.2 __ 98.6 ____ 14.0 __ 74.8

1770 ______ 13.1 __118.1 _______ 15.3 __ 63.0 ____ 15.8 __ 52.6

1971 ______ 12.4 __110.7 _______ 16.9 __ 44.4 ____ 15.6 __111.6

1863 ______ 13.6 __109.4 _______ 15.2 __ 29.3 ____ 15.5 __ 91.0

1766 ______ 13.7 __109.2 _______ 15.7 __101.7 ____ 16.6 __ 38.1

1987 ______ 12.8 __109.1 _______ 15.9 __ 73.2 ____ 15.6 __ 68.7

1882 ______ 13.1 __104.7 _______ 15.2 __113.1 ____ 14.9 __ 85.0

1777 ______ 13.6 __103.9 _______ 15.3 __116.6 ____ 15.9 __ 70.2

1991 ______ 12.1 __103.0 _______ 17.3 __ 70.7 ____ 17.1 __ 27.8

1795 ______ 13.2 __101.8 _______ 15.2 __ 53.5 ____ 16.6 __ 82.0

1985 ______ 12.7 __101.7 _______ 16.2 __ 77.2 ____ 14.6 __ 114.1 

1927 ______ 12.6 __ 101.3 _______ 15.9 __ 96.0 ____ 15.7 __139.5

1928 ______ 12.9 ___ 97.0 _______ 16.1 __ 60.3 ____ 15.3 __ 95.2

1824 ______ 13.4 ___ 96.3 _______ 16.0 __ 47.0 ____ 15.1 __ 74.5

1812 ______ 13.0 ___ 95.4 _______ 14.2 __ 75.4 ____ 14.3 __ 54.6

=============================================================

warmer than 14.0 

2007 ______ 15.1 __144.9 _______ 15.2 __137.9 ____ 15.4 __ 60.7

1848 ______ 14.5 __141.5 _______ 15.6 __ 85.1 ____ 13.6 __117.7

1997 ______ 14.1 __132.2 _______ 16.7 __ 53.5 ____ 18.9 __ 98.9 

1982 ______ 15.5 __129.1 _______ 16.5 __ 33.9 _____ 15.7 __ 87.9 

1998 ______ 14.2 __121.4 _______ 15.5 __ 54.4 ____ 15.9 __ 48.7

1839 ______ 14.3 __114.9 _______ 14.9 __152.9 ____ 14.6 __ 83.4 

2016 ______ 15.2 __114.0 _______ 16.9 __ 43.6 ____ 17.0 __ 67.5

1838 ______ 14.4 __112.9 _______ 15.6 __ 68.1 ____ 15.1 __ 80.8

1958 ______ 14.1 __110.9 _______ 15.9 __ 95.7 ____ 15.8 __102.9

1833 ______ 14.6 __107.9 _______ 15.8 __ 47.8 ____ 14.3 __ 59.1 

1829 ______ 14.9 __103.3 _______ 15.1 __143.7 ____ 14.3 __149.3

1872 ______ 14.1 __ 100.0 _______ 17.1 __122.9 ____ 15.3 __ 80.8

1853 ______ 14.3 ___ 99.5 _______ 14.9 __110.0 ____ 14.7 __ 79.8

1936 ______ 14.7 ___ 99.5 _______ 15.3 __138.0 ____ 16.1 __ 28.4

1935 ______ 15.1 ___ 96.2 _______ 17.1 __ 27.2 ____ 16.6 __ 65.1

================================================================

Analysis

In general it can be said that the cool, wet Junes are followed by rather cool and wet summers. Of the 26 years in the top list, only three managed to produce a month that averaged 17 or higher. Of the 15 that had a warmer start, still only four of those managed to reach 17 in either July or August. 

In terms of sustained wetness, the median values for July and August in the top group were 76.5 mm and 91.3 mm, so the tendency is for the heavy rainfall to remain in the picture through July and return in almost the same full intensity in August. In the warmer set, the median values are somewhat higher in July (90.4 mm) and lower in August (80.8 mm) but those are not very significant differences. 

The number of significantly dry months that follow the wet Junes is small. In the entire set of 41 cases above, only five have a July below 45 mm and only four have an August below 45 mm. 

There are some fairly dire summers among those that follow a cool or even a warm but wet June, notably 1829, 1860, 1879 and 1912. There are very few good summers (the wet June of course reduces the chance that the summer might be considered good, but only 1852, 1935, 1982, 1991 and 1997 in these lists were generally regarded to be reasonably good summers. 

The door is wide open for this year to produce a delayed three-month hot, dry spell (July to September) which has never followed a wet June in past cases. 

The only year above to have two months (Jul-Aug) with less than 55 mm in each month was 1998. 

 

 

Thanks for putting this together. It makes grim reading for the rest of summer! 

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The above correlates incredibly well with what I put together regarding wet June’s at Bournemouth airport and the subsequent July and August’s. Out the 24 summers that have had June’s with more than 60mm of rain only 1983 went on to have a backloaded summer all the remains years had poor summers overall. You have to go to the middle of the table with 1990 / 2003 until you get to the next decent summers....depressing reading.  

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Matthew. said:

Looking at the list above August 1912 looks to be the wettest EWP since records of summer months. It’s so phenomenal would this be the wettest EWP of any month?

No that was October 1903 with 218mm

Edited by Weather-history

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12.8c to the 13th

0.8c below the 61 to 90 average

0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 12.8c to the 13th

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Here are the links to EWP resources for those who don't have them bookmarked yet ...

The daily tracker can be found here:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/charts/charts.html

and all past data are found here:

http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadukp/data/download.html

with the EWP in the first row of the table, various regional precip data in the rest of the table. 

As w-h mentioned, 83 mm to 12th on EWP tracker, seems likely that the provisional scoring for 120 mm will work out for most scoring this month, with LG able to move up each time it rains after 120 mm is reached, the second highest forecast (before late penalties expired) was 116 mm. Stewfox punted for 140 mm on the 4th. I will add a line of scoring below the "ultimate scoring" section to show scoring for that forecast although can't incorporate it into main contest scoring under the rules. Then I will maintain that to end of the contest, just so we can see where this forecast would have placed stewfox overall, if he continues on. The penalty will be 1.0 which is an extension of the amounts used for late forecasts, doubled on day four (one reason for the absolute termination of valid forecasts on 3rd is simply the fairness question, what if the models on 4th show events that were not available to forecasters in the valid period? not sure if that applies here, I don't think the on time forecasters were seeing massive rainfall amounts on the 10-day time scale, maybe this was one month where coming in a bit late was a bigger advantage than usual). 

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I got a friend on messenger and lives in Hampshire and he said to me that the low pressure is staying in charge and said to that officially summer is die and said the jetstream is not going move I watched BBC forecast the week ahead on BBC iPlayer and he said that high pressure is going to come in next week and I got feeling the heat waves going to come soon. 

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The CET looks like it has bottomed out now, at last... and slow climb up is expected, but nothing marked.. akin to what happened in May, but probably not quite the same rate of warming. Chances of the first below average CET month of the year look high, but as we saw in May seem difficult to achieve recently. Atlantic westerly flows tend to bring slightly above average maxima in the CET zone, but more importantly maintain high minima, need an injection of a ridge in cooler NW air to bring mins down - I feel this is what will be needed if we are to see a below average CET. However, I'm only expecting a finish 0.5 degree above the average anyhow at best, this also caters for the inevitable downward adjustment.

June 2019 already going to go down as a very wet month, and most likely very dull, the question is whether it will also end up being cool or just average, overall it will end up being a disappointing summer month and to be able to say this with confidence at the half stage is very depressing!

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12.8c to the 14th

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average

1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 12.8c to the 13th & 14th

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have to say ive had very similar 2012 vibes. There was a very wet spell that month at a similar time.

Also interesting to see a broadly similar evolution to 06-07 play out over the past 12 months.

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Sunny Sheffield at 12.7C -0.3C below normal. Rainfall 94.3mm 129.2& of average which isn't bad going considering there hasn't been any Thunder at all.

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Sunny Sheffield still at 12.7C -0.4C below average rainfall has passed the 100m mark at 100.3mm 137.4% of average.

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12.9c to the 15th

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average

0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 12.8c to the 13th & 14th

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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

12.9c to the 15th

0.9c below the 61 to 90 average

0.9c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 12.8c to the 13th & 14th

Up we go.

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I bet with all this moaning about this month (look at some of the other threads) we still end up close to the CET if not slightly above...as Don mentioned it looks like we're in a bit of a warm up phase now.

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53 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

I bet with all this moaning about this month (look at some of the other threads) we still end up close to the CET if not slightly above...as Don mentioned it looks like we're in a bit of a warm up phase now.

Yes, I can see this month being slightly above average and perhaps not far off my 14.8C guess?!

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I would say looking at the 06z GFS output, the second half would average about 15.5 which combined with first half of 12.9 produces a value of 14.2. There's still plenty of rain left to come on that run also, especially in the last week of June. 

Looking at my files of running CET, the warmest June CET following any start below 13 (to 15th) was 15.1 in 1941 which recovered from 12.2, so the second half there averaged 18.0. Another outcome of 15.1 in 1817 came from a lower start than all but 1941 (12.4) which required a second half average of 17.8 C. Also 1878 went from 12.9 to 15.1 (second half there was 17.4). And 1935 recovered from 12.8 to 15.1 (second half of 17.3).

June 1782 went from 12.9 to 14.9 (second half average 16.8).

June 1986 went from 12.7 to 14.8 (second half average 16.8).

A similar rise to June 1941 occurred in June 1936 which went from 11.8 to 14.7 (second half of 17.7). June 1891 went from 12.9 to 14.7 (second half 16.6). 

1989 went from 12.9 on 15th to an outcome of 14.6 (second half was 16.2).

2005 had reached only 13.2 by 15th en route to 15.5 (second half was therefore 17.8).

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4 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

I bet with all this moaning about this month (look at some of the other threads) we still end up close to the CET if not slightly above...as Don mentioned it looks like we're in a bit of a warm up phase now.

That's why you don't judge a summer month on temperatures alone.

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BBC are reporting 5-6C below average in parts of the UK so far this June, seems to include most of the CET zone! Strange the CET is running less than a degree below average. 🤷‍♂️

8E2C58B3-B1BE-4D6E-B126-9624BFA142DC.png

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Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

That's why you don't judge a summer month on temperatures alone.

True.  August 2004 is a classic example of that and to a certain degree August 2008!

Edited by Don

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8 minutes ago, Joe Watts said:

BBC are reporting 5-6C below average in parts of the UK so far this June, seems to include most of the CET zone! Strange the CET is running less than a degree below average. 🤷‍♂️

8E2C58B3-B1BE-4D6E-B126-9624BFA142DC.png

can tell just by looking at that, it's not Nov to March, that would be red

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5 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I would say looking at the 06z GFS output, the second half would average about 15.5 which combined with first half of 12.9 produces a value of 14.2. There's still plenty of rain left to come on that run also, especially in the last week of June. 

Looking at my files of running CET, the warmest June CET following any start below 13 (to 15th) was 15.1 in 1941 which recovered from 12.2, so the second half there averaged 18.0. Another outcome of 15.1 in 1817 came from a lower start than all but 1941 (12.4) which required a second half average of 17.8 C. Also 1878 went from 12.9 to 15.1 (second half there was 17.4). And 1935 recovered from 12.8 to 15.1 (second half of 17.3).

June 1782 went from 12.9 to 14.9 (second half average 16.8).

June 1986 went from 12.7 to 14.8 (second half average 16.8).

A similar rise to June 1941 occurred in June 1936 which went from 11.8 to 14.7 (second half of 17.7). June 1891 went from 12.9 to 14.7 (second half 16.6). 

1989 went from 12.9 on 15th to an outcome of 14.6 (second half was 16.2).

2005 had reached only 13.2 by 15th en route to 15.5 (second half was therefore 17.8).

Surprised at the 1989 stat, thought June 1989 was a preety warm month throughout..

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3 hours ago, Joe Watts said:

BBC are reporting 5-6C below average in parts of the UK so far this June, seems to include most of the CET zone! Strange the CET is running less than a degree below average. 🤷‍♂️

8E2C58B3-B1BE-4D6E-B126-9624BFA142DC.png

Good ol' tropical south east fringes still holding onto average temps,,,maybe some of my posts referring to moaning might have been a bit premature as it does seem like many central areas are having a cold one - you all want to move here where there building houses and concreting everything over in a blink of an eye...

Saying that the above map doesn't really seem to correlate with the hadley CET of just 0.7 below...seems a bit extreme.

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1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Good ol' tropical south east fringes still holding onto average temps,,,maybe some of my posts referring to moaning might have been a bit premature as it does seem like many central areas are having a cold one - you all want to move here where there building houses and concreting everything over in a blink of an eye...

Saying that the above map doesn't really seem to correlate with the hadley CET of just 0.7 below...seems a bit extreme.

Out if context? Could be compared to 2018?

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I wonder if that map compares mean temperature to date with all of June average temperature, that would push it down a couple of degrees. For example, the CET is currently 1.6 below the 1981-2010 June normal. But it's much closer to the running mean 1st to 15th. Also, if they have stats for daytime anomalies, those are probably running lower than the overall anomalies. Or if it refers to the past ten days instead of all of June, the mean without 1st and 2nd must be close to 2 deg below normal. Another competing theory is, it's just plain wrong. Can I say that? 

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