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Roger J Smith

June 2019 CET & EWP forecast contests

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It's clear the mean minima temperature is not holding up the average mean;

image.thumb.png.b95e93e4c77ff98f1dddabea04f88d06.png

image.thumb.png.928bc9dd6756f2db451d0e79ba04c9c4.png

Clearly, the opposite is true. 

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Posted (edited)

Already well past june 2012 rainfall here for the same time!!

Edited by Snowyowl9

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With regard to EWP, would estimate that we are at about 50 mm now (36 to 9th plus what has fallen since then) and GFS ten-day from now to 22nd would suggest 30-40 more over the grid, then maps for 23rd to 28th suggest potential for 20 mm more. The total could easily reach 100 mm. Here's the scoring that would occur with 120 mm, which takes the EWP past all but one forecast. So after 113.1 mm falls, these scores begin to lock in with Lettucing Gutted at 200 mm capable of moving up several ranks (by 140 mm he would pass 41st to 25th), but higher scores are probably locked in entirely as it seems unlikely that the month would go any higher than that. 

If we don't quite get to 113.1, the two highest scores would be reduced slightly and some of the other high end scores would get a slight boost. 

I already posted a table for 84.9 mm so you can see this outcome would be quite different for Godber1 who would move up many positions and also I Rem Atl 252. 

We can have a running reset your EWP contest, I will start the reset at 102 mm. (doesn't count for anything in the contest). 

__________________________________

(provisional scoring for 120 mm EWP)

 

 

EWP20182019H.xlsx

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Sunny Sheffield at 13.4C +0.8C above normal, Rainfall 36.4mm 49.9% of the monthly average.

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We had a months worth down here.  The rain just stayed and stayed.....dangerous driving conditions.  Another wet belt coming up tomorrow which I think is being underplayed 

 

BFTP

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13.0c to the 11th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average

0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 13.0c to the 11th

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

13.0c to the 11th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average

0.7c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 13.0c to the 11th

Edit: Sorry my last post was wrong as some of the provisional CET values can be changed during the month, yesterday had a CET value of 10.5C

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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Yesterdays max of 11.7C is a provisional record low for the date, beating 12.1C set in 1909.

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28 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

Yesterdays max of 11.7C is a provisional record low for the date, beating 12.1C set in 1909.

What does your CET tracker project mate for the next few days mate?

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31 minutes ago, SunnyDazee said:

What does your CET tracker project mate for the next few days mate?

I'll post the details up in the next hour or so, but bottoming out at 12.7 or 12.8C to the 13th before rising steadily to about 13.6C to the 21st.

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Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS

image.thumb.png.d65098b570b33b8a7e0f8546c6e906fa.png

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

image.thumb.png.7450c609cf9e6b3f4a3a51fb87b578c5.pngimage.thumb.png.854cc05d71bbf1c4df1dacc6f8ef5350.png  

A cooling trend for another day or 2 before things finally begin to warm up with a few above average days forecast after mid month, although this is mainly due to some very mild overnight lows as opposed to warm days.

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Sunny Sheffield down to 13C +0.2C above normal. Rainfall up to 59.7mm 81.8% of the monthly average.

If the GFS is right we should be above average rainfall by this time tomorrow.

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I had a look back for any similar Junes ... in terms of the warm first two days and a cooler trend with above normal rainfall. Nothing quite matches. In 1918 and 2009 there was a similar temperature trend (to mid-month) but the months were not much wetter than average. In 1971, also 1987, the warmest running CET was at the start of the month and it turned out wet, but the warmth was sub-15 so not quite the same profile. 1927 and way back in 1780 were other somewhat similar Junes for either temperature or rainfall with at least a warmer start than later in the month. 

Not a very appealing set of analogues there either. But I suspect this June will be in a class of its own, EWP clearly on its way to over 100 mm and possibly top ten (10th place out of previous 253 years was 129.1 mm in 1982 -- other recent years in the top ten are 2012 (1st), 2007 (4th) and 1997 (9th)). With 1980 at 13th, 1998 at 16th and 2016 at 20th, we have recently experienced one third of the top 21 Junes for rainfall (to edge past 2016 will require 114.1 mm).

In that top 20, you have to go back to 1912 for the next most recent -- although 1958 was 22nd and 1971 23rd wettest.

 

 

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On 10/06/2019 at 20:56, Sunny76 said:

For some reason I can never remember 2005 at times. I recall August being warm and sunny and parts of late May and June being warm. July seemed cooler and wet from memory. 

 

4 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

I had a look back for any similar Junes ... in terms of the warm first two days and a cooler trend with above normal rainfall. Nothing quite matches. In 1918 and 2009 there was a similar temperature trend (to mid-month) but the months were not much wetter than average. In 1971, also 1987, the warmest running CET was at the start of the month and it turned out wet, but the warmth was sub-15 so not quite the same profile. 1927 and way back in 1780 were other somewhat similar Junes for either temperature or rainfall with at least a warmer start than later in the month. 

Not a very appealing set of analogues there either. But I suspect this June will be in a class of its own, EWP clearly on its way to over 100 mm and possibly top ten (10th place out of previous 253 years was 129.1 mm in 1982 -- other recent years in the top ten are 2012 (1st), 2007 (4th) and 1997 (9th)). With 1980 at 13th, 1998 at 16th and 2016 at 20th, we have recently experienced one third of the top 21 Junes for rainfall (to edge past 2016 will require 114.1 mm).

In that top 20, you have to go back to 1912 for the next most recent -- although 1958 was 22nd and 1971 23rd wettest.

 

 

Of those that made it past 100mm since 1700, which were those who failed to make it over 14C and then what did thosr summers do.

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Posted (edited)

England and Wales rainfall total up to around 68mm by the 11th. Already wetter than summer 1995. 

Edited by Weather-history

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12.9c to the 12th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average

0.8c below the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 17.1c to the 1st & 2nd

Current low this month 12.9c to the 12th

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Sunny Sheffield down to 12.8C bang on average helped very much by mild nights which are +0.7C above normal. Rainfall 81.5mm 111.6% of the monthly average. Next question will we go past 100mm mark.

June 2007 was still behind this months total at the same stage. However on 14th we had 77.1mm so it will sneak ahead.

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In fact we have just sneak past the whole of Last's Summer rain total as well! 

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11 hours ago, Weather-history said:

England and Wales rainfall total up to around 68mm by the 11th. Already wetter than summer 1995. 

That is twice the rainfall we had in 1995,only 34mm for the summer!

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19 hours ago, summer blizzard said:

 

Of those that made it past 100mm since 1700, which were those who failed to make it over 14C and then what did those summers do?

EWP starts in 1766. This is a list of all cases you mentioned, ranked by June EWP, plus in italics any that were close (wetter than 95 mm and cooler than 14.0). The July and August CET and EWP values are listed for each. The warmest month of each summer is highlighted in red. Of the 35 Junes with more than 100 mm, only twelve were excluded on the basis of being too warm. Of the six Junes 95-99.9 mm, three were excluded. The next two, not in this list (1954 and 1968) produced the next excluded June (1968 was 14.8, in 43rd position). So that made 27/43 of the wettest Junes cooler than 14.1 C. Another eight were cooler than the current June normal of 14.5 C (so a total of 35/43 wet Junes were below normal by modern standards, and June has not been changing as fast as most months either, its warmest 30-year average came in 1822-51.).

Analysis follows the lists.

Wet Junes that had CET values below 14.1 C.

YEAR ____ June CET, EWP ______July CET, EWP___Aug CET, EWP

2012 ______ 13.5 __160.1 _______ 15.5 __120.7 ____ 16.6 __ 94.2

1860 ______ 12.3 __157.1 _______ 14.5 __ 65.2 ____ 13.6 __148.5

1768 ______ 13.9 __148.7 _______ 15.6 __121.9 ____ 16.0 __ 91.6

1879 ______ 12.9 __139.3 _______ 13.6 __121.4 ____ 14.5 __148.5

1797 ______ 13.6 __134.9 _______ 17.3 __ 79.4 ____ 15.8 __ 114.8 

1852 ______ 13.2 __134.1 _______ 18.7 __ 68.0 ____ 15.8 __ 134.9

1830 ______ 12.7 __128.9 _______ 16.2 __ 94.0 ____ 13.7 __ 98.2 

1789 ______ 14.0 __128.0 _______ 15.4 __128.0 ____ 16.6 __ 39.6

1980 ______ 13.8 __123.3 _______ 14.7 __ 75.8 ____ 15.9 __ 88.9

1769 ______ 13.1 __122.8 _______ 16.4 __ 56.9 ____ 15.0 __ 98.8

1912 ______ 13.9 __122.4 _______ 16.1 __ 94.4 ____ 12.9 __192.9

1784 ______ 13.7 __120.1 _______ 15.2 __ 98.6 ____ 14.0 __ 74.8

1770 ______ 13.1 __118.1 _______ 15.3 __ 63.0 ____ 15.8 __ 52.6

1971 ______ 12.4 __110.7 _______ 16.9 __ 44.4 ____ 15.6 __111.6

1863 ______ 13.6 __109.4 _______ 15.2 __ 29.3 ____ 15.5 __ 91.0

1766 ______ 13.7 __109.2 _______ 15.7 __101.7 ____ 16.6 __ 38.1

1987 ______ 12.8 __109.1 _______ 15.9 __ 73.2 ____ 15.6 __ 68.7

1882 ______ 13.1 __104.7 _______ 15.2 __113.1 ____ 14.9 __ 85.0

1777 ______ 13.6 __103.9 _______ 15.3 __116.6 ____ 15.9 __ 70.2

1991 ______ 12.1 __103.0 _______ 17.3 __ 70.7 ____ 17.1 __ 27.8

1795 ______ 13.2 __101.8 _______ 15.2 __ 53.5 ____ 16.6 __ 82.0

1985 ______ 12.7 __101.7 _______ 16.2 __ 77.2 ____ 14.6 __ 114.1 

1927 ______ 12.6 __ 101.3 _______ 15.9 __ 96.0 ____ 15.7 __139.5

1928 ______ 12.9 ___ 97.0 _______ 16.1 __ 60.3 ____ 15.3 __ 95.2

1824 ______ 13.4 ___ 96.3 _______ 16.0 __ 47.0 ____ 15.1 __ 74.5

1812 ______ 13.0 ___ 95.4 _______ 14.2 __ 75.4 ____ 14.3 __ 54.6

=============================================================

warmer than 14.0 

2007 ______ 15.1 __144.9 _______ 15.2 __137.9 ____ 15.4 __ 60.7

1848 ______ 14.5 __141.5 _______ 15.6 __ 85.1 ____ 13.6 __117.7

1997 ______ 14.1 __132.2 _______ 16.7 __ 53.5 ____ 18.9 __ 98.9 

1982 ______ 15.5 __129.1 _______ 16.5 __ 33.9 _____ 15.7 __ 87.9 

1998 ______ 14.2 __121.4 _______ 15.5 __ 54.4 ____ 15.9 __ 48.7

1839 ______ 14.3 __114.9 _______ 14.9 __152.9 ____ 14.6 __ 83.4 

2016 ______ 15.2 __114.0 _______ 16.9 __ 43.6 ____ 17.0 __ 67.5

1838 ______ 14.4 __112.9 _______ 15.6 __ 68.1 ____ 15.1 __ 80.8

1958 ______ 14.1 __110.9 _______ 15.9 __ 95.7 ____ 15.8 __102.9

1833 ______ 14.6 __107.9 _______ 15.8 __ 47.8 ____ 14.3 __ 59.1 

1829 ______ 14.9 __103.3 _______ 15.1 __143.7 ____ 14.3 __149.3

1872 ______ 14.1 __ 100.0 _______ 17.1 __122.9 ____ 15.3 __ 80.8

1853 ______ 14.3 ___ 99.5 _______ 14.9 __110.0 ____ 14.7 __ 79.8

1936 ______ 14.7 ___ 99.5 _______ 15.3 __138.0 ____ 16.1 __ 28.4

1935 ______ 15.1 ___ 96.2 _______ 17.1 __ 27.2 ____ 16.6 __ 65.1

================================================================

Analysis

In general it can be said that the cool, wet Junes are followed by rather cool and wet summers. Of the 26 years in the top list, only three managed to produce a month that averaged 17 or higher. Of the 15 that had a warmer start, still only four of those managed to reach 17 in either July or August. 

In terms of sustained wetness, the median values for July and August in the top group were 76.5 mm and 91.3 mm, so the tendency is for the heavy rainfall to remain in the picture through July and return in almost the same full intensity in August. In the warmer set, the median values are somewhat higher in July (90.4 mm) and lower in August (80.8 mm) but those are not very significant differences. 

The number of significantly dry months that follow the wet Junes is small. In the entire set of 41 cases above, only five have a July below 45 mm and only four have an August below 45 mm. 

There are some fairly dire summers among those that follow a cool or even a warm but wet June, notably 1829, 1860, 1879 and 1912. There are very few good summers (the wet June of course reduces the chance that the summer might be considered good, but only 1852, 1935, 1982, 1991 and 1997 in these lists were generally regarded to be reasonably good summers. 

The door is wide open for this year to produce a delayed three-month hot, dry spell (July to September) which has never followed a wet June in past cases. 

The only year above to have two months (Jul-Aug) with less than 55 mm in each month was 1998. 

 

 

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Thanks Rodger, that seems quite telling.

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Posted (edited)

Crikey, the EWP is now up to 83mm (12th June). It was about 79mm in 2012 at the same time. 

Edited by Weather-history

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Looking at the list above August 1912 looks to be the wettest EWP since records of summer months. It’s so phenomenal would this be the wettest EWP of any month?

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Sunny Sheffield down to 12.6C -0.3C below normal. Rainfall 87.7mm 120.1% of the monthly average

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