Tour 2 2019 - Chase Day 2

[Nick F]

Morning, thought I'd start a thread for the severe risk that will evolve later today across the Plains. The greatest  risk for tornadoes looks to be across Nebraska and possible South Dakota, both along a warm front that will drift north towards S Dakota border counties with Nebraska and also along dryline down through western NE and western KS.

Cap will be weaker across Nebraska/S Dakota than further south across OK and TX, thanks to left exit region of jet and also enhanced lift of the warm front/dryline triple point. Descent of upper air noted on some models further south across High Plains until you get to south of Lubbock, TX hindering convection to more isolated.

Low-level shear likely to be maximised along the warm front initially - where winds will be backed the most towards the east rather than SE further south in the warm sector, latest HRRR seems to have pushed the WF further north than indicated by SPC and earlier runs of other models, pushing across South Dakota, though storms slow to initiate along the WF, compared the storms HRR initiates across west/central Nebraska from around 3pm.

Dew points show position of warm front straddling NE-SD border at 21z (3pm), low-level helicity enhanced here, Sig tornado parameter highlights greater risk of warm front

… but storms fire further south mid-afternoon near DL or Triple point, probably because of better lift aloft here from left exit of jet, also lone cell over central NE

Roll forward to a few hours later and LL helicity improves across much of central/W Nebraska as the  low-level jet cranks up, 

SPC forecast for today here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

10% hatched tornado risk over central Nebraska, they may have to edge that into south Dakota too later

I would choose a starting point of North Platte for lunch then wait for initiation.

 

 

Edited May 17, 2019 by Nick F

[Supacell]

I'll be keeping a watch on these webcams later, could be interesting. One is a view west, the other a view east. Lots of sky in them too for any interesting clouds.

 

[Cloud]

From what I remember of the roads in western and central Nebraska, not a lot of options for chasing.

[samadamsuk]

Jc Reynalds is in on that developing cell in Ellis KS - livestormchasing.com

Does netweather have any live feeds ?

 

[Nick F]

9 minutes ago, samadamsuk said:

Jc Reynalds is in on that developing cell in Ellis KS - livestormchasing.com

Does netweather have any live feeds ?

 

Unfortunately not this year

[samadamsuk]

6 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Unfortunately not this year 

ah ok, thanks

[Nick F]

Tornado Watch for NW Kansas and a big chunk of Nebraska

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0172.html

[samadamsuk]

Looks good - esrh looks to ramp up in the next few hours - I assume that's to do with the 2hr pressure falls and easterlies as mentioned above. I cant work out what triggered that main line of storms through Kansas - seems to be well east of the dryline and juice .. I'm sure there's a simple explanation!

[Allseasons-Si]

nice lowering on Matt Salo's feed

https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/

Edited May 17, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[samadamsuk]

Weak tornado on Matt Salo's feed

[samadamsuk]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

nice lowering on Matt Salo's feed

https://www.severestudios.com/livechase/

Nice! I'm getting about 1 frame every 15 seconds … nice tube though!

[samadamsuk]

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, samadamsuk said:

Weak tornado on Matt Salo's feed

Rodger hill

[samadamsuk]

6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Rodger hill

beuty

[samadamsuk]

Good low level windfields now! esrh over 300 on that storm (mesoanalysys pages)

[samadamsuk]

Is Matt Salo going to be able to core punch ?

 

 

[Nick F]

Netweather/Weatherholidays Tour 2 Team capture nice rope tornado near McCook. Boom! Well done team.

 

 

[samadamsuk]

4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Netweather/Weatherholidays Tour 2 Team capture nice rope tornado near McCook. Boom! Well done team.

 

 

Awesome

[Nick F]

Tim Marshall on Fb, same tornado

 

[samadamsuk]

Roger Hill before he lost his stream:

 

[samadamsuk]

Aaron Pippin right now:

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Another nado on the ground but the live feeds are pour

carl hobi

https://livestormchasing.com/map

[samadamsuk]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Another nado on the ground but the live feeds are pour

carl hobi

https://livestormchasing.com/map

Nice!

 

What is it with live feeds this year .. I'd pay a subscription if there were options!

 

It looks life the left split has merged back in, and will now take on the meso! 

[samadamsuk]

esrh now up to 400+ // time for the bigger Nado's they were talking about ...

[samadamsuk]

Might be a few caught out here if that left cell becomes the business end ..