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Chase2019 Day 3 MDT risk TX/OK Panhandles

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ominous looking hook further south near Imperial

 

 

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could be a long night!!

image.thumb.png.b135bcabd762b4fc350d11ab0da20268.png

 

 

Areas affected...West Texas Concerning...Tornado Watch 145... Valid 072201Z - 072330Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 145 continues. SUMMARY...Numerous supercells have developed along and ahead of the dryline in West Texas. These supercells will pose a threat for mainly large hail and damaging winds in the near term. The tornado threat is expected to increase through the evening. DISCUSSION...Supercells have developed along the dryline in West Texas. These storms will likely remain mostly discrete through the evening give the stronger forcing is farther north. A 20Z MAF sounding shows MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg with 40 knots of effective shear which is more than adequate for strong supercells. The environment is expected to become even more conducive through the evening as mid-level winds increase and low-level moisture continues to increase. Low-level shear was quite weak on the 20Z MAF sounding, but low-level shear is expected to increase substantially over the next few hours as the low-level jet strengthens and winds continue to back in response to cyclogenesis currently occurring in eastern New Mexico. Therefore, the tornadic potential is expected to increase through the evening. The strongest storm is currently located in Pecos county where a discrete supercell is showing strong low-level rotation and has recently been reported to have a tornado. In addition, MRMS MESH suggests hail in excess of 2 inches may also be possible with this storm.

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Posted (edited)

aaron rigsby is right under it!

 

Is there a prize for most photogenic cell which never drops a nado?

Edited by matty40s

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9 hours ago, matty40s said:

aaron rigsby is right under it!

 

Is there a prize for most photogenic cell which never drops a nado?

LOL. If there was I’d have a cabinet full of the things 🙂

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Posted (edited)

Yesterdays' raw T count..

 

RawTcount.GIF

Edited by Dorsetbred

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