Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[Summer Sun]

Once the last of the heat clears away today a period of average or below average 850's arrives with rain/showers never too far away.

The 2nd half of June could see something warmer but the 00z GFS Op is an outlier for the significant heat it's showing especially so on the London and Cardiff ensembles

 

Edited June 2, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the ECM ens it's on the warm side around the 8th but then proceeds to go on the cooler side of mean from around the 9th so like GFS the potential for something warmer developing around mid-month just not quite as hot as this weekend has been for some

Edited June 2, 2019 by Summer Sun

[Methuselah]

The GFS 00Z looks better:

T+210:  T+384: 

Though the FV3 is rather less optimistic as it still keeps creating snot:

                        

And, there are clearly some stonkers within the ensembles, of which the op is one:

           

                  

                  

It's quite obvious when FI starts methinks!

[Frosty.]

Longer term, especially by day 10 the Ecm 00z ensemble mean looks  better i think it's fair to say, a lot better than the week ahead anyway!

Edited June 2, 2019 by Frosty.

[Guest]

Well after such a poor weekend relative to potential (only maxed just over 20c yesterday, today’s only going got 16-18c here which is what we’ve already got) for many anyway from the SE this coming week really won’t be a lot different to what you’ve had. Zero prospects of anything largely warm and settled in the near term and only most tentative signs of things warming up around day 10, even here the signal is pretty mixed and any warmer solutions are only floating in and out of the model suites.

[northwestsnow]

I would be interested to see Tamara's musings as it is now beginning to look like the troughing will lift out in the 2nd week of June to allow for something more settled-

By day 10 the EC mean now has positive temp anomalies across the UK..

Profile suggests troughing to our south -potential for some kind of Scandy block moving forward perhaps?

 

Edited June 2, 2019 by northwestsnow

[johnholmes]

With the 500 mb anomaly charts showing troughing on all 3 as the major influence over the UK then heat is not likely to feature on many forecasts in the 6-10 day outlook nor probably some days beyond.

They are certainly not identical but close enough to indicate the general weather pattern, not settled probably sums the surface weather up.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

[MATTWOLVES 3]

25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I would be interested to see Tamara's musings as it is now beginning to look like the troughing will lift out in the 2nd week of June to allow for something more settled-

By day 10 the EC mean now has positive temp anomalies across the UK..

Profile suggests troughing to our south -potential for some kind of Scandy block moving forward perhaps?

 

Potential is there NWS, one thing for sure by day 10 the Atlantic is once again in no man's land! 

[Frosty.]

Interesting Gem 0z, shows a big warm up in around a week's time and what a nice finish!

[Methuselah]

06Z has a northwestward migration of heat at around T+180:

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Thanks Karl, was just about to post those gem charts.... They finish a treat, cheers mate

[northwestsnow]

Caveat being its one GFS operational but 6Z moving in the warm direction..

[StormChaseUK]

Serious heat over in France 40C possible

Looks like the models are shifting the plume a week earlier again,  there will be a plume of some description but when is the question.

 

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

FV3 obviously having another family dispute with its older brother, hey back down FV... the older ones always no best! 

[Methuselah]

If this came-off it'd feel very uncomfortable indeed:

 

[Frosty.]

Looks plumey!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I nearly said boooom then but realised its just 1 run. The plume according to the 6z operational is on schedule guys. 

[StormChaseUK]

Be cautious, look how much it varies from 00z to 06z   The 00z was actually better in a way as it builds heat slow rather than flash in pan 1 day affairs

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I nearly said boooom then but realised its just 1 run. The plume according to the 6z operational is on schedule guys. 

It's actually similar to the Gem 0z in pretty much the same timeframe..fingers crossed.

Edited June 2, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

I know it's nae easy to predict a thundery breakdown...But?

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

How can 2 models from the same stable have such a difference of opinion!! FV3 says no way uk, I'm keeping you in the summer cooler... 

[Mr Frost]

This has to be some sort of sick joke...I would be sitting at 13 degrees while you ladies and gents down South bask under 31 degrees...

Guess I would just have to make the best of a bad situation if it came true while sitting under my nice cool air...

[StormChaseUK]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

How can 2 models from the same stable have such a difference of opinion!! FV3 says no way uk, I'm keeping you in the summer cooler... 

Summer 2019  Terminated. 

I don't think the models know how to handle the plume situation, they never do.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

GFS and FV3 at the same time frame. Have you noticed how the FV is now rolling out at a quicker speed than the old one.. The new one is spoilt, it had to much money threw at it. The old ones heading for the retirement home but seems to be whistling a happy tune along the way... A bit like the film cocoon....

[StormChaseUK]

Back where we started.     2 weeks from now we end up back at today.