Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[knocker]

It's been dubbed the week of the trough

Edited May 30, 2019 by knocker

[Djdazzle]

Tentative signs on the models that the LP next week won’t hang around for too long.

[mb018538]

Utterly awful ECM tonight - surely far too aggressive. By the end we have 850s of -2 to -4 in Scotland....by almost mid June. Horror show. Wait for the 00z I reckon!

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean looks encouraging in the mid / longer term with potential for at least a couple of very warm or even hot and humid continental incursions with the first towards the end of next week. Although it's hard to put much detail into it, the mean suggests a slack warm pattern beyond the week ahead with some ridging / high pressure but also some thundery humid conditions which I think would mainly affect the south / southeast, the earlier 6z and 0z were similar.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

9 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Utterly awful ECM tonight - surely far too aggressive. By the end we have 850s of -2 to -4 in Scotland....by almost mid June. Horror show. Wait for the 00z I reckon!

There are some signs of a recovery by the end. And your better of looking for a definite trend by comparing the runs like for like. The 0z may definitely be better tomorrow morning, but the 12z may again be completely different! And those minus uppers to the North look a brief affair to me. But yes the ECM like the GFS seem to be a little out of sorts recently! 

Edited May 30, 2019 by Mattwolves

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

The GEFS 12z mean looks encouraging in the mid / longer term with potential for at least a couple of very warm or even hot continental incursions with the first towards the end of next week. Although it's hard to put much detail into it, the mean suggests a slack warm pattern beyond the week ahead with some ridging / high pressure but also some thundery humid conditions which I think would mainly affect the south / southeast, the earlier 6z and 0z were similar.

 

3 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Utterly awful ECM tonight - surely far too aggressive. By the end we have 850s of -2 to -4 in Scotland....by almost mid June. Horror show. Wait for the 00z I reckon!

team GEFS then for me, but EC is classed as top model

[MATTWOLVES 3]

17 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

 

team GEFS then for me, but EC is classed as top model

There is an interesting article called why the European weather model is king over National Weather at. https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com. Well worth a read. 

Has regards to tonight's ECM, I will reserve judgement til Karl posts the means later.

Edited May 30, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

I will say the Gem has been disappointing today in terms of a return longer term to settled and very warm weather, although it does recover slightly later next week, the 12z goes rapidly downhill thereafter. So, mixed signals, some good, some bad, some ugly..it's the uk after all..not the mediterranean!!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

was about to post that Frosty, as it looks like EC, but hate posting vile charts, may make some folk feel unwell, ugh

[Wimbledon88]

I'd make the most of this weekend( Midlands southwards) as the next two weekends could be total write offs. 

[Djdazzle]

True, but highly unlikely to verify at that range.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

No sign of any heatwave or massive uppers on the ecm 12z its just trough and LP offering autumnal breeze and rain covering the whole UK next week and perhaps beyond. Daytime maxes from this run looking like they will be ranging from 9C to 13C, an episode most of us are familiar with from a June some 7 years ago. Really hoping 00z will look better.

 

[Frosty.]

At least tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean ends on a more positive note, as did the operational but there is some, shall we say inclement weather indicated before that!

Edited May 30, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

15 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

I'd make the most of this weekend( Midlands southwards) as the next two weekends could be total write offs. 

Its highly unlikely to be a write off... Write of implies... Unusable, finished, caput. Some parts will see alot of rain, others not so much... Anyway your from Wimbledon.. Its highly unlikely to be a write of there... Tbh your posts are probably getting those to the NW pretty depressed by now. And you say the next 2 weekends... I can't think of a model on earth that gives that kind of accuracy that far out... 

Edited May 30, 2019 by Mattwolves

[I remember Atlantic 252]

7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Its highly unlikely to be a write off... Write of implies... Unusable, finished, caput. Some parts will see alot of rain, others not so much... Anyway your from Wimbledon.. Its highly unlikely to be a write of there... Tbh your posts are probably getting those to the NW pretty depressed by now. And you say the next 2 weekends... I can't think of a model on earth that gives that kind of accuracy that far out... 

1 July, have court 1 roof now at least!

[Frosty.]

Here's my edited highlights of the summer of 2019 from the cfs today, including a sneak peak at september..the conclusion I've reached is that August looks best..until it all changes on the next run!

Edited May 30, 2019 by Frosty.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

More good news, folks: the ensembles are getting better!

 

I'm liking the ppn. between the 6th and 9th of June!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

17 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'm liking the ppn. between the 6th and 9th of June!

Aye, we all like different weather types Chris, i'm in the minority and liking the ppn from 1-3 June

[northwestsnow]

Further to Tamara's post earler it doesn't look at this juncture like the troughing will become 'locked in'- may take a wee while to settle down fully but my hope is things settle down mid June onwards..

[StormChaseUK]

I'm not buying the 18z glitches 

Aberystwyth would be about 10C and drizzle on the same day as 40C in Belgium  gradient that steep so close is impossible for Europe 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

I think the models are having a real struggle with this weather pattern. More so the ecm.  days 6/7/8/9/10 have never hardly been close to its last run. So no consistency at all so anything beyond 5 days to me on that is FI. Gfs seems more consistent with its output But as more swings than a swingers party. So would give that also 5 days until FI. I do think the whole of the UK will have a decent hot spell this summer. But when is another question. Before I say night my advice would be take looking beyond 5 days with the models with a large pinch of salt. PS its only my opinions. 

[Penrith Snow]

My God, if you don't like wet weather then don't look at the overnight GFS  run!

Its basically very unsettled throughout with the UK under a upper though right out to Day 10.

Upper temperatures improve next weekend but as one low fills another moves up from the south  which would bring heavy rain and thunderstorms although a suspect temperatures would be back to normal in the north May be a tad above in the south.

All the heat is over eastern Europe and Russia under a pronounced upper ridge.

Not good, not good at all.

Andy

[Guest]

Gfs this morning drops the idea of dragging in milder air from the near continent towards the end of next week and has fallen more in line with the 12z’s from ECM & GEM and along with the updated GEM this morning shows unsettled cool, cloudy & showery conditions prevailing throughout (could be especially grim with some very low sunshine totals in the NW), given trending the hope these continually unsettled runs won’t verify appears unlikely. Until heights breakdown over western Russia and Greenland, which nearly all the models maintain to some extent through their entire suites the UK will remain plagued by some form of trough and cold pool leaving much to be desired and generally failed to start to summer.  

[Guest]

5 hours ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

I think the models are having a real struggle with this weather pattern. More so the ecm.  days 6/7/8/9/10 have never hardly been close to its last run. So no consistency at all so anything beyond 5 days to me on that is FI. Gfs seems more consistent with its output But as more swings than a swingers party. So would give that also 5 days until FI. I do think the whole of the UK will have a decent hot spell this summer. But when is another question. Before I say night my advice would be take looking beyond 5 days with the models with a large pinch of salt. PS its only my opinions. 

I’m not sure I totally agree with that, generally beyond 5 days the models have been consistent in that they’ve maintained strong blocking in western Russian and over Greenland and have nearly always delivered unsettled conditions to the UK, it’s just been a case varying themes of unsettled, either very warm & thundery or just generally grim and cool with troughing maintained very near the UK. 

[Cheshire Freeze]

26 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Gfs this morning drops the idea of dragging in milder air from the near continent towards the end of next week and has fallen more in line with the 12z’s from ECM & GEM and along with the updated GEM this morning shows unsettled cool, cloudy & showery conditions prevailing throughout (could be especially grim with some very low sunshine totals in the NW), given trending the hope these continually unsettled runs won’t verify appears unlikely. Until heights breakdown over western Russia and Greenland, which nearly all the models maintain to some extent through their entire suites the UK will remain plagued by some form of trough and cold pool leaving much to be desired and generally failed to start to summer.  

Depends what you like. Some tasty diurnally driven convection showing on GFS, which produces some potent thunderstorms. Lovely jubbly IMO. 

Edited May 31, 2019 by CreweCold