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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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1 minute ago, snowsummer said:

I cant hibernate, im off to bognor regis on monday for a week.. Nice looking charts coming into play the week after my holiday  though. 

Sorry about that, not the bognor Regis bit, but the weather ? that's pretty typical though, you picked a very unfortunate week there... Hopes there's plenty to do indoors... If your into water sports, you will be quids in... ??

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Extracts posted last week on closed thread:   The other part of the equation is the seasonal transition within the stratosphere from its winter default vortex position to its summer state. T

Greetings to you all! ? A glistening new thread for the month of May and early Summer! As we head deeper into Spring and into Summer (though I guess for some, May could be classed as a Summer

There are no apologies for self quoting a significant extract of the post the other day because its central focus becomes more primary to how NWP evolves in the remainder of this month and into the st

Posted Images

19 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

12Z ensembles: image.thumb.png.d8b97f95e2a829cc74675f73d8e8fca3.png image.thumb.png.963cb97c6ffa7d8b7306f33e68c4e925.png 

A very mixed bag but some high pressure and heat potential in there..even some spaghetti!??

F1E4CD7A-ED68-496F-9C37-A166975CEDAA.gif.b4e6f22aad13edd1c74905175d85f0e3.gif

GFSSPAGEU12_318_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
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The ecm has a low 977mb near the southern tip of Ireland at 0600 Wednesday with rain from the associated front into Wales and the west country. By midday Thursday it is 983mb over East Anglia with the UK encompassed with the circulation and a very showery day. By midday Friday the UK is still within the circulation but the subtropical high is amplifying to the south west.

t114.thumb.png.6c3f2f05fce90c9019024440a24d05ef.pngt144.thumb.png.16f3aa585477017b2d76199ecfc948da.pngt168.thumb.png.cfc205916475769f29bc65cf4cc055e0.png

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Let's take stock at T240.  Are the models smelling the sugar free Red Bull?   Here's the GEM, GFS, FV3 and ECM, some consensus building around the middle of the month....

image.thumb.jpg.54a2f3ee058a2aa3b8a00f4c2c8561c7.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ed8b7011e6fdd91ebd89ff3ea2de64d8.jpg

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ECM best of the bunch, which is good, and consistent with UKMO heavily caveated statements re the middle of May - looks good to me.

Edited by Mike Poole
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23 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Sigh.... you keep going on about record lows yet you do not say what these are or suggest what the minima could be. Though Friday will be cold it is not record breaking and Sunday and Monday may not even be too bad. You make every cold spell sound a lot more dramatic then what it actually is... I don't think anyone will put down April's bitterly cold easterly in their meteorological highlights.

Cold yes but not exceptional, May 1996 and 1997 had colder spells. The colder output for next week on the GFS has eased but there remains some uncertainty about what happens after the mid-week low moves from west to east.

Finally the cold over Europe isn't representative of the global picture and some more exceptionally mild weather in the arctic alongside this northern blocking.

image.thumb.png.1901a2d8c12cb71ccd0e2a2df43c7388.png  

Evening . youre jumping the gun, once again! The cold spell is brought by a potent Artic blast, given any clear spells cold records will be challenged , its just starting as the artic cold front moves south, lets see what the stats are in a couple of days....?

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10 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

given any clear spells cold records will be challenged , 

What is the cold record to beat, out of interest??

giphy (2).gif

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A while since I looked at the CFS. As always it's worth noting the model needs to be treated probabilistically, one run is meaningless, so viewing several runs in the round, here are the latest 8 for June Z500 anomaly:

image.thumb.jpg.6043e758100790f83fdf502aa82f9e4b.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.96c1a43bfa664bbe3516ca66b4be55ac.jpg 

image.thumb.jpg.8867918d0d2a2d81d91e4f6e961978c8.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.0f83fec2f044ad2efc2c2b4c765da8cb.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.5cbd7106c1c076afa09f7d61f3eb8cd9.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.a622a09eba4aa96b7fb49d223ac73ed5.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.fe3606483997687a7b0ee3e32dd16bb5.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.0f83fec2f044ad2efc2c2b4c765da8cb.jpg

Reds near the UK yes, but variable position.  Here's July:

image.thumb.jpg.7747fc603fe5e386ce4b7dad633395d6.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.35b7ded3481739dab080ff0ed43bb33d.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.27a7572064c86f493c7378aaf5ba2a6e.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.db34748498f0fae5481fc3c435f8e498.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.d7b94ba6016b048b4828ebb6f8953ba0.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.9a7c0c90b5425988cb1455d3c988b7be.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.af2e8ef407e018ae4e7ec42c672026fa.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.f306cf035ad9c85baf4391d1ea8c299d.jpg

My take from this, across both months, high pressure dominates in the vicinity of the UK but there is some considerable uncertainty over where - and probably variability with time given these are monthly mean charts.  Which suggests to me hot spells yes, but thundery breakdowns also.  In fact not so far from my earlier suggestions about summer made in this thread shortly after winter ended, I haven't really changed my views to be honest.  

Current thoughts re summer: hotter spell from mid-May, then cycle of warm spells with thundery breakdowns with the warm spells taking hold until mid July.   Then a slow slide to the cloudy slightly muggy August we know and don't love.   We'll see!

This last chart is rogue -it shouldn't be here!

image.jpg

Edited by Mike Poole
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I think in fairness to anyweather he did actually predict some record low temps in April, so perhaps he wasn't that far out regarding the set up, just the timing, I suppose there could be some really low minimums in places under clear skies, so I will give him a bit of credit for that... ?

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

so I will give him a bit of credit for that... ?

I won't give him any credit but I will give you a point?

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The ext EPS this evening continues to emphasis the pattern change that has been indicated for the last two or three days. That is a disappearance of TPV and a weakening of the European trough as it is relegated south to the eastern Mediterranean allowing the subtropical high to amplify north towards the UK. This results in the not too strong upper flow to back south westerly with temps trending above average. Any systems tracking east would probably only effect the north west  NOAA trending that way if not quite so bullish with the amplification of the high

9-14.thumb.png.4adc1f7a731f8fd59085a0ddcc337192.png814day_03.thumb.gif.ec8b8c9ab0b4bbb3e9bfc48d8309ea57.gif

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I won't give him any credit but I will give you a point?

He has stuck his neck on the line with some bold predictions, and I think that in itself takes guts, he has also teken some stick, not sure if that bothers him or not, but I hate to see anybody taking grief.. ?

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41 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

The cold spell is brought by a potent Artic blast, given any clear spells cold records will be challenged

Please clarify what records you're referring to.

The lowest May minimum in the UK is -9.4°C in Norfolk and the lowest May maximum is 1.6°C shared by Braemar and Knockanrock. They'll take some beating!

PS: I'm still waiting for those violent thunderstorms.

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25 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Please clarify what records you're referring to.

The lowest May minimum in the UK is -9.4°C in Norfolk and the lowest May maximum is 1.6°C shared by Braemar and Knockanrock. They'll take some beating!

PS: I'm still waiting for those violent thunderstorms.

Just wait and see the cold spell has not started yet:cold:

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26 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

He has stuck his neck on the line with some bold predictions, and I think that in itself takes guts, he has also teken some stick, not sure if that bothers him or not, but I hate to see anybody taking grief.. ?

I think he brings it on himself to be honest, he doesn't need your sympathy! One thing you will never see him do is make a prediction about warm or hot weather. Only outrageous predictions about cold or rain, with the primary aim of winding people up.

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A very cold and snowy night in parts of the Scottish Highlands...get the Christmas tree’s back up! ??

D7387F40-EE4C-44AB-8216-09E4DD0B9F50.thumb.png.f13b9f81e05fb982976c15b0e291b91c.png

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Spring really is the most wonderful time of the year! 

I am looking forward to a glorious Summer filled with heat and thunderstorms - hopefully the long range models and thoughts of respected members on here come true! 

Have a good weekend everyone! 

 

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41 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

He has stuck his neck on the line with some bold predictions, and I think that in itself takes guts, he has also teken some stick, not sure if that bothers him or not, but I hate to see anybody taking grief.. ?

Thankyou  for the kind comment.   Too many folks looking at computer models?

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