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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

BlueHedgehog074
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Badgers01 Seasoned

Badgers01

Posted
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: Cobham Surrey
Posted
6 minutes ago, Alderc said:

The heavy rain event shown in the GFS 06z in the south east around the 8th June is remarkably similar to events that unfolded in the middle of June 2007 that lead to major flooding, let’s hope it disappears quickly.

Yep that meandering dumbbell low pressure would give unpleasant weather ... one to keep an eye on but plenty of time still to change - remarkable consistency of high pressure to the North West evident through whole run though

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Whatever the recovery is based on, there's a recovery!!

And here is that potential recovery on the GEFS 6z!!!

PS..Great post again Tamara

GFSC00EU06_300_2.png

GFSP01EU06_324_2.png

GFSP01EU06_348_2.png

GFSP01EU06_348_1.png

GFSP02EU06_348_2.png

GFSP11EU06_372_2.png

GFSP12EU06_372_2.png

GFSP14EU06_372_2.png

GFSP16EU06_372_1.png

GFSP18EU06_372_1.png

GFSP18EU06_372_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Author
Posted

Come on guys, can’t we all just get along? ?‍♂️

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
3 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Come on guys, can’t we all just get along? ?‍♂️

I think it's time for a group hug..

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

I’m hoping the met are seeing something that myself and quite a few others can’t with regards to lasting settled weather towards mid June. 

One thing we can say is that this summer definitely won’t be anything like 2018. Patterns are totally different. 

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BlueHedgehog074 Veteran

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Author
Posted
13 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think it's time for a group hug..

B481FCDB-CB38-492D-8C12-204F8FF5FBF4.thumb.jpeg.6026b0b9300bf741875e8cd971dca1d3.jpeg

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
2 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

I’m hoping the met are seeing something that myself and quite a few others can’t with regards to lasting settled weather towards mid June. 

One thing we can say is that this summer definitely won’t be anything like 2018. Patterns are totally different. 

Can still be a very good summer in spite of patterns and background signals. And patterns can flip overnight.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Why hasn't anyone mentioned the Gem 0z?!!!!..actually I wish I hadn't!!:shok:

gem-0-228.png

Edited by Frosty.
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StormChaseUK Community Regular

StormChaseUK

Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
Posted
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

And here is that potential recovery on the GEFS 6z!!!

PS..Great post again Tamara

GFSP18EU06_372_1.png

GFSP18EU06_372_2.png

I don't think I have seen a better chart than that for summer. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
11 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

I don't think I have seen a better chart than that for summer. 

The cfs 0z looks great for most of June too..high pressure and very warm.

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Mr Frost Maestro

Mr Frost

Posted
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms, Severe Gales, Hot & Sunny or Cold & Sunny!
  • Location: Gourock, Scotland
Posted

There is more straw clutching going on in here than a masterbating scarecrow but there always is no matter what the season!

I have been reading about heat/plumes since the beginning of April and most of us have only had a handful of warm sunny days!

A pretty rotten outlook here in the West of Scotland for the foreseeable which is a bit pants for the start of June! (We had a glorious week of weather recently - should have known it would the last for a good while! )

Even on the latest GFS this is the only chart worth posting for here! 

EBB88F82-5A2F-4CA8-88F5-8B092A09EBBE.thumb.png.811106a3dbdd483e9a51231b5b0ad7b4.png

73B83B3F-9078-44A2-8397-05B1F79F97DC.thumb.png.74ccd370948e8fe04a4446554120a1ce.png

I would sell my gran to be down in the South East of England this weekend! Roll on Summer heat for all the UK and Ireland. (The people who enjoy hot and sunny weather that is!)

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Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The cfs 0z looks great for most of June too..high pressure and very warm.

CFS nearly always looks great weather it’s heat in the summer or for cold in winter! It’s like it’s default is a model watchers delight!

Edited by Alderc
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Here's those cfs charts i was gushing about!!

cfs-0-348.png

cfs-2-348.png

cfs-0-372.png

cfs-2-372.png

cfs-0-396.png

cfs-2-396.png

cfs-0-420.png

cfs-2-420.png

cfs-2-444.png

cfs-0-444.png

cfs-0-468.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 hour ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Come on guys, can’t we all just get along? ?‍♂️

Well put again DRL, things do turn a bit nasty at times on here. I was just like to say here that I respect everyone's opinions on anything weather related on here, and that includes knocker. The only time I tend to pounce on someone is when they try to write off half a season or indeed the whole season based on a few dodgy GFS runs and perhaps ECM to. I notice how it was mentioned what are exeter seeing regarding the longer term outlook what we are missing... Come on guys they have a hell of alot more data and information at there disposal than we the public do.. But at the end of the day, this is the weather, and it's not the be all and end all of civilisation!! Things change and move on, and that includes the weather. I'm glad you make your contributions DRL to this thread, I for one would like to see the Netweather forecasting team perhaps drop in to the forum more frequently, to give there version of events on what they think, and I'm sure it would calm a few frayed nerves, they are experts after all. If the next week or so is unsettled, so be it!!! We have to my knowledge at least another 3 months for conditions to vastly improve. So hopefully we can at least get along, even though some of us have massive differences of opinion...

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Alderc said:

CFS nearly always looks great whether it’s heat in the summer or for cold in winter! It’s like it’s default is a model watchers delight!

Does it?..I'm just discussing what the models are showing, not the merits or otherwise of models!!!

Incidentally, I've seen some pretty crap cfs runs recently so you're wrong!

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I’m hoping the met are seeing something that myself and quite a few others can’t with regards to lasting settled weather towards mid June. 

One thing we can say is that this summer definitely won’t be anything like 2018. Patterns are totally different. 

Whether it be a teleconnective forecast or a NWP forecast, it's still a forecast, so is prone to error; so, if the weather doesn't 'play ball', don't shoot the messengers...?

In the meantime, I'm 100% certain that the coming summer will be just like 2019. As Mattwolves said, a few pages back: it's got 2019 written all over it!:oldgood:

An intense thundery downpour would be more than welcome, down here: better now, than when the harvest is ready...?:oldgrin:

Edited by Ed Stone
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Saturday and Sunday I feel are looking good with widespread warmth, the SE still on for high 20s in any periods of long sunny spells. Yes it shows signs of changing soon after.... But baby steps and all that. 

gfs-1-108.png

gfs-1-120 (1).png

gfs-1-138.png

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Guest

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, mb018538 said:

I’m hoping the met are seeing something that myself and quite a few others can’t with regards to lasting settled weather towards mid June. 

One thing we can say is that this summer definitely won’t be anything like 2018. Patterns are totally different. 

Maybe they aren’t, being the world famous institution they are they can’t just take a punt on every model output like we can and then publicly issue them. I’d expect their medium range forecasts to deteriorate over the next few days. 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 minute ago, Alderc said:

Maybe they aren’t, being the world famous institution they are they can’t just take a punt on every model output like we can and then publicly issue them. I’d expect their medium range forecasts to deteriorate over the next few days. 

Thanks again for your positive feedback!! Making assumptions of what the met office are going to issue in a few days is ridiculous and most likely above our pay grade... I feel like I'm starting to sound like a stuck record. 

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Guest

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Saturday and Sunday I feel are looking good with widespread warmth, the SE still on for high 20s in any periods of long sunny spells. Yes it shows signs of changing soon after.... But baby steps and all that. 

gfs-1-108.png

gfs-1-120 (1).png

gfs-1-138.png

The 850’s really fall away very quickly through the day, starting at 13/14c here in Bournemouth at 06z and some 10c lower by 18z with temps stuck in the mid teens to the west of the IOW, London, east anglia might see 25/26c

Another problem with the 12z is that it sweeps through so quickly bar maybe a few showers Saturday afternoon in the NE the is no thundery breakdown what’s so ever, looks like destabilisation will occur explosively of the near continent with a large squall line moving through Germany on Monday

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Guest

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Thanks again for your positive feedback!! Making assumptions of what the met office are going to issue in a few days is ridiculous and most likely above our pay grade... I feel like I'm starting to sound like a stuck record. 

No I was just saying they rightly need to be cautious and any trending they have won’t be realised until they are way more certain. 

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

On a more positive note the icon is trying hard to build heights in from the SW by day 7. I think there is more to this model larky than just GFS... God I hate that model....

Icon is gonna be the first to pick up on this signal, an improvement I feel by mid to end of next week!!

icon-0-168.png

icon-0-180.png

Edited by Mattwolves
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The ukmo 12h shows a very warm weekend for the s / se and probably humid on sunday too with a thunderstorm risk, saturday the drier day with plenty of sunshine across southern uk but as today has been the coolest day of this week, temps on the up during the days..and nights ahead!

UW72-21.gif

UW72-7.gif

UW96-21.gif

UW96-7.gif

UW120-21.gif

UW120-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

The one thing I hate most is boring weather, and this would hardly be boring!:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.81ebb195b4d85bac7c2db00d92229a5d.pngimage.thumb.png.1bb770a3f26d45ee581e889ec74e2c95.png 

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