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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Just looking at the ukmo 12h, this long bank holiday weekend really doesn't look bad, sure it's chilly but for many it's dry with sunny spells and a few showers in the east and  widespread frosts but it's only when we get past Mon / Tues when it turns very unsettled.

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Edited by Frosty.
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Extracts posted last week on closed thread:   The other part of the equation is the seasonal transition within the stratosphere from its winter default vortex position to its summer state. T

Greetings to you all! ? A glistening new thread for the month of May and early Summer! As we head deeper into Spring and into Summer (though I guess for some, May could be classed as a Summer

There are no apologies for self quoting a significant extract of the post the other day because its central focus becomes more primary to how NWP evolves in the remainder of this month and into the st

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I find it hilarious how that low pressure system after the northerly just moves over the UK and then sits there going round and round in circles! I always used to think places like Scandinavia would get more low pressure than the UK in summer being further North but they actually get much sunnier warmer and drier weather than we do May-Sept. What makes the low pressure sit over the UK so much? 

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4 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

What makes the low pressure sit over the UK so much? 

Blocking to the east and northwest perhaps?

Edited by Frosty.
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Utter garbage out till next weekend, UKMO looks dire, and icon not much better. Only Consolation is the cold uppers tend to lift a tad!! Until then folks it's hibernation time! 

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Edited by Mattwolves
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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Blocking to the east and northwest perhaps?

Well bear in mind I'm new to looking into this sort of thing, so what is obvious to many here, is not to me, but I'm happy to learn. 

Edited by Thundershine
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6 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

I find it hilarious how that low pressure system after the northerly just moves over the UK and then sits there going round and round in circles! I always used to think places like Scandinavia would get more low pressure than the UK in summer being further North but they actually get much sunnier warmer and drier weather than we do May-Sept. What makes the low pressure sit over the UK so much? 

I think they must have heard you!:oldgood:image.thumb.png.29dfd36c184a0c0366ba8e8f54921705.png

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1 minute ago, Thundershine said:

Well bear in mind I'm new to looking into this sort of thing, so what is obvious to many here, is not to me, but I'm happy to learn. 

I've been at it for years mate, and still clueless. ?

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Well folks, this it: record-breaking heat as moist tropical maritime sweeps across the whole of the UK. You saw it here, first!?

image.thumb.png.53c3328a1423be781d59e655c9eb1285.pngimage.thumb.png.4d2c87820a108d36ed4c0970dbcf814d.png  :oldgood:

so - tepid rain...

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Gfs 12z continues to be one vile muck fest from start to finish you couldnt actually get a worser run than the 12z. I think I shall refrain for the time being from counting on a warmer and dryer second half to May with the current sypnotic pattern setting up. Not putting any belief in what longer range models are saying.

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18 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Gfs 12z continues to be one vile muck fest from start to finish you couldnt actually get a worser run than the 12z. I think I shall refrain for the time being from counting on a warmer and dryer second half to May with the current sypnotic pattern setting up. Not putting any belief in what longer range models are saying.

Perhaps you should change your name to  8.5*c, then perhaps you won't get so disappointed when it goes backside up. ?

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51 minutes ago, Thundershine said:

I find it hilarious how that low pressure system after the northerly just moves over the UK and then sits there going round and round in circles! I always used to think places like Scandinavia would get more low pressure than the UK in summer being further North but they actually get much sunnier warmer and drier weather than we do May-Sept. What makes the low pressure sit over the UK so much? 

Well on this occasion you will see that there is a massive blocking high pressure over eastern Europe and also the subtropical high pressure is attempting to ridge just to the east of the UK which halts any westerly momentum. Ergo the trough remains over us and we get unsettled weather within the circulation of the stationary  surface low. But fear not...........

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Edited by knocker
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Looking at the GEFS 12z mean later next week is the perfect recipe for sunshine and heavy thundery showers with a big trough slap bang over the uk.

Edited by Frosty.
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The 12z FV3 becomes increasingly settled and warmer during the second half of the run and the mean also portends an improvement around the same time which also ties in with what exeter are saying..though far from certain at this stage..encouraging all the same!  ?

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Edited by Frosty.
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And for those of us getting sick of the gunk, here comes the first signs of a much better set up... Strong ridging from the azores and high pressure we'll in control over Europe!!! Stay tuned it could be a good un!! 

Ps... I think Karl beat me to it. ?

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1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

Utter garbage out till next weekend, UKMO looks dire, and icon not much better. Only Consolation is the cold uppers tend to lift a tad!! Until then folks it's hibernation time! 

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I cant hibernate, im off to bognor regis on monday for a week.. Nice looking charts coming into play the week after my holiday  though. 

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Where there was despair, let there be hope!:oops:

image.thumb.png.e793f24db896acd162d58d66ce7d8ec9.pngimage.thumb.png.f84804b5172abec9e968a77f4e3d17b8.png :oldgrin:

Where there is discord may we bring harmony?

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