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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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Posted (edited)

Thanks for that summer sun... Not all bad then, let's hope it has more success than it did in winter though.. 👍

Edited by Mattwolves

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Thanks for that summer sun... Not all bad then, let's hope it has more success than it did in winter though.. 👍

Indeed, just a bit of patience required from the impatient grasshoppers!!..we are not eating into summer yet and as I've said, most of this week looks good for the majority, and you're right, reading miserable comments does have a deflating effect but we just need to look for the positives.!👍

Edited by Frosty.

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Just interested in the uncertainty that is prevalent at the moment, here is the situation at T180 on ICON, GEM, GFS and FV3:

image.thumb.jpg.0326f5ba857e0bd5da76dd2d3b87b346.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.28b273f746299844436a1383e3695a34.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.8f1fd503f522184e5878c0f3646fd81f.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.12ecf5d0268248889b3038498528a26a.jpg

I don't think this evolution is nailed down at all,  yes higher pressure towards the south, but other than that the models aren't telling us much.  

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Posted (edited)

This evening's gfs 5-10 anomaly The NH profile no big surprise as the pattern has more or less been covered in previous posts

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9304000.thumb.png.a01a47c8600075d6b82cf3fdd5d11f15.pnggfs-europe_wide-t2m_f_anom_5day-9304000.thumb.png.f0fec2eb23d045ea10e40c89a9f3d7c5.png

Edited by knocker

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Not a great finish to the 12Z, it must be said...but, it's like I always say: get the sheet in first...:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.0364f45859d16ca52d30570b98f31d8f.pngimage.thumb.png.e9396b36827ddfcd7799f58a4e09c474.png 

 

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Posted (edited)

The 12z FV3 is incredible for early June..what a great model!!👍😍

GFSPARAEU12_336_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_372_1.png

GFSPARAEU12_384_17.png

Edited by Frosty.

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And the FV3 gets there in the end...Great model!:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.b1caa86fb0c04627ac4fe7925aeeef3c.pngimage.thumb.png.ca23e6abd4f733958a6bcab8a2b90f94.png :oldgrin:

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And the FV3 gets there in the end...Great model!:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.b1caa86fb0c04627ac4fe7925aeeef3c.pngimage.thumb.png.ca23e6abd4f733958a6bcab8a2b90f94.png :oldgrin:

That's spooky Ed, we almost said the same thing..feels like I'm in the twilight zone!:shok:

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Posted (edited)

Following this week's fine and warm weather (apart from the far north!) there looks like being a more unsettled blip, at least for the north but then from around day 10 there's a signal for a return of fine and warmer weather thanks to the azores high according to the GEFS 12z mean..and indeed the 6z mean before it!!..it's really not as bad as some on here are painting it!!👍

GFSAVGEU12_246_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_276_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_300_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_336_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_348_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_360_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_384_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_384_2.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Defo some stonkers starting to creep into the 12Z ensembles:

image.thumb.png.bff4005655e8c36c9fd071d0b0105fe7.pngimage.thumb.png.d493045623d022533b78f01923e287c9.png  

But quite a lot of scatter too, though!

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Posted (edited)

Looking at the Ecm 12z so far there's plenty of fine and warm weather to come for the rest of this week with the exception of northern scotland..a change on sunday but look at the 850's!!!👍😜

96_mslp500.png

120_mslp850.png

120_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)

Then it turns more unsettled / cyclonic and cooler..don't shoot the messenger..blame the Ecm!!😜

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

192_thickuk.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Karl beat me to it but he's just about right.... As usual... 😜 Plenty of settled Conditions especially S/SW areas, things going downhill into the new week with cooler temps and a fair bit of rain in places, especially Northern parts, folk up North are probably sick of hearing this by now.... Sorry chaps... 

ECM1-72.gif

ECM1-96.gif

ECM1-120 (1).gif

ECM1-144.gif

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-192.gif

ECM0-192.gif

giphy (2).gif

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A quick look at the holiday weekend with the ecm

Saturday sees a wave forming on the front with rain staring to effect N. Ireland and western Scotland that will progress east to effect the north of the country through the rest of the day. Dry elsewhere with sunny intervals and apart from the north temps a tad above average.

By midday Sunday the wave has developed and is 999mb west of the Hebrides and the cold front is tracking south east down the country. So quite a wet day with showers behind the front and quite windy.Temps trending below average behind the front.

The wave is well clear by Monday but leaves a legacy of showers with further rain from another front effecting the north through the afternoon. Temps are now below average.

t102.thumb.png.51c6ceb26deb32dd79400213b2c0573a.pngt120.thumb.png.0277d8aa4667e04e22ff5d5e33bbe7e1.pngt150.thumb.png.12d6318dfa8c78b94e1431584eb7cc14.png

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Posted (edited)

No words necessary!!..actually there are, according to the Ecm 12z following this week's warm settled weather, next week looks cooler and unsettled, especially further north!💩😉

192_mslp500.png

192_thickuk.png

216_mslp500.png

240_mslp500 (1).png

Edited by Frosty.

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Out to day 10 with ECM and still a bit meh. But I think if it ran a few more frames we would see high pressure building in from the SW.. that's the hope anyway. 

ECM1-240.gif

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Out to day 10 with ECM and still a bit meh. But I think if it ran a few more frames we would see high pressure building in from the SW.. that's the hope anyway. 

ECM1-240.gif

Yeah keep smiling, the azores high looks poised next week😜

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Yeah keep smiling, the azores high looks poised next week😜

We be sugar coating it Karl.... The Azores high is coming home soon... Could be a second class delivery service though and not the 1st class recorded delivery service some may want. 👍😉

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And the ecm 5-10 anomaly Certainly some differences from the gfs, particularly upstream, albeit the upper trough is firmly adjacent to the UK

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9304000.thumb.png.7945b948391aa70e96114834105eb939.png

 

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Posted (edited)

Just comparing the day 10 Ecm 12z op / mean...the mean wins because the azores high / ridge looks better placed / aligned!!👍😉

EDM1-240.GIF

ECM1-240.gif

Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

We be sugar coating it Karl.... The Azores high is coming home soon... Could be a second class delivery service though and not the 1st class recorded delivery service some may want. 👍😉

Surprise surprise - its a DPD delivery service, one you wait patiently for then never arrives 😂

 

Edited by 38.5*C

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14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just comparing the day 10 Ecm 12z op / mean...the mean wins because the azores high / ridge looks better placed / aligned!!👍😉

EDM1-240.GIF

ECM1-240.gif

But GFS 12Z ensembles isn't looking very nice though particularly Scotland where its wet, cold and miserable for about a week post the 27th of May. Better in the SE, warmer and dryer.  

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1 minute ago, 38.5*C said:

But GFS 12Z ensembles isn't looking very nice though particularly Scotland 

My post is about the Ecm, not the Gfs, incidentally the GEFS 12z mean looks increasingly settled and warmer the further ahead it goes into the start of summer...I'm looking for the positives!!

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cfs-0-1908.png?00

I'm seeing a pattern change emerging not long to wait! 

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18 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

But GFS 12Z ensembles isn't looking very nice though particularly Scotland where its wet, cold and miserable for about a week post the 27th of May. Better in the SE, warmer and dryer.  

more of a late July and August setup, will say very unusual for May

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