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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean really cheers up towards the end of the run, if anything, even more than the 00z..hopefully portends better times to come beyond the cool generally unsettled spell.!?

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Edited by Frosty.
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Extracts posted last week on closed thread:   The other part of the equation is the seasonal transition within the stratosphere from its winter default vortex position to its summer state. T

Greetings to you all! ? A glistening new thread for the month of May and early Summer! As we head deeper into Spring and into Summer (though I guess for some, May could be classed as a Summer

There are no apologies for self quoting a significant extract of the post the other day because its central focus becomes more primary to how NWP evolves in the remainder of this month and into the st

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Evening All! The British weather keeps us on our toes, , This May bank holiday may well see record lows .and a Horrible start to May... cold wet and windy..

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2 hours ago, 38.5*C said:

GFS = Bland    ECM = Bland    GEM = Bland  

I can see where its all heading. Vile sypnotic patterns are always known to stick around like glue. Wasn't the last time we had a cool start to May back in 2012?  Only two weeks ago it was looking like 2018 repeat now its looking like a 2012 repeat.  Uk weather will do what it pleases so anything can change.  

Hello ,we can otter expect  a repeat of last year ,not really! Different synoptics  , 1975,1976 was a classic year for heat and drought,  this summer expect lots of thunderstorms...:gathering:

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A very encouraging trend over the last two days from the EPS mean anomaly. the quite intense vortex/trough effecting western Europe is forecast to weaken and slip south into the eastern Mediterranean  This allows the subtropical high to ridge in the vicinity of the UK which results in the upper flow backing and diverging to the north . Portending a more settle spell with temps around average

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This evening's NOAA in the same ball park

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Edited by knocker
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11 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Hello ,we can otter expect  a repeat of last year ,not really! Different synoptics  , 1975,1976 was a classic year for heat and drought,  this summer expect lots of thunderstorms...:gathering:

May 1975 was cold, wet and windy -- the following summer was hot and thundery. And, not even you know what the synoptics will be, in six-weeks' time!

Edited by Ed Stone
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So we are now well into next phase and for the rest of the week, including next weekend unsettled weather with showers, longer periods of rain, perhaps sometimes windy, but interspersed with a fair bit of sunshine. In essence dominated by the upper trough Temps still a tad below normal but trending up

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The ecm has rain coming in from the south west through Tuesday and overnight into Wednesday when at midday it has a low  980mb south of the Lizard. so a wet and windy day for most,  Twenty four hours later the low is filling in the North Sea so sunshine and showers. By midday Friday the country under the umbrella of a trough so again sunshine and showers. Temps still below average, particularly in Scotland Tues/Weds

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The portends are still encouraging from the GEFS 00z longer term with an indication of less troughs and more ridging / high pressure in the vicinity of the uk.

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Edited by Frosty.
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ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif diagram_40days_forecast_GEFS_member.gif

Bit of a switch around from the models regarding enthusiasm for the CCKW making it right across the Pacific to drive a good Euro-Scandi height rise response (as detailed in Tamara's excellent update a few days ago). EPS much more so than GEFS.

So not surprising to see ECM looking more promising than GFS as of D10 for a build of much warmer, drier weather after the very unsettled interlude next week.

Hopefully GEFS is having one of its 'moments'; it seems to have a thing for wandering convection in the Pacific. Generally, having EPS showing the desirable outcome is more encouraging than when it's GEFS.

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So it's a coldish bank holiday period to come, especially up North. Plenty of dry conditions around, especially Western areas, not so dandy further N/E. Things looking very unsettled next week, but ECM does show signs of improvement beyond a week, and GFS still showing a major change back to settled conditions come mid month! A summer of plumes beckons... Hopefully! 

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Edited by Mapantz
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11 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

CFS really showing high pressure taking a foothold by the 13th of May! And it's looking much better towards mid month.. ?

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See! knew you guys could find better charts for my holiday  ? 

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The 6z operational portends slightly warmer rain at the end of next week / start of following week.?

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Edited by Frosty.
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We are certainly paying for that 4 or 5 day mini heatwave at Easter!

Could be forgiven for thinking its mid November round here lately!

EC looks OK by day 10, GFS6Z is just disgusting.

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

We are certainly paying for that 4 or 5 day mini heatwave at Easter!

Could be forgiven for thinking its mid November round here lately!

EC looks OK by day 10, GFS6Z is just disgusting.

Yes nws, good point, this month perhaps a tale of two halves! I've come across a few quotes saying the chances of a repeat of last summer or persistent heat are a little lower due to the atmosphere looking a little more chaotic, but perhaps good for very warm spells followed by thundery rinse and repeat episodes.... And that will sure to please many. 

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