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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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Cracking ECM....by 240 we are nearly in June and still having 850s of 0 to -2c across the UK. Depressing.

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1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Cracking ECM....by 240 we are nearly in June and still having 850s of 0 to -2c across the UK. Depressing.

Fear not, I found some summery charts from the GEFS 12z into early June!👍😜🔥🌞

GFSP11EU12_366_1.png

GFSP11EU12_366_2.png

GFSP13EU12_366_1.png

GFSP19EU12_366_2.png

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This weekend sees the energy flows from the west and north combining to flatten the subtropical high and resulting in the upper trough becoming the dominant feature which leads to this surface analysis next Tuesday. But of course the detail will change

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-8785600.thumb.png.f0fa9c1cd5f62041dd0024c054f5d71f.pngecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-8872000.thumb.png.ad4b65004e28b63a04ef25be0170eae6.pngecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-8958400.thumb.png.d054a236e8582e7ed88b95315bddde63.pngt186.thumb.png.9eaf7852507d4ea886ca30b8356bb518.png

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

ECM looking good for the next week, plenty of settled spring like conditions... Then it goes manic Street preachers with a big cold blast.... Oh well... Should be brief... 

ECM1-96.gif

ECM1-120.gif

ECM1-144.gif

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-192.gif

tenor.gif

3843583F-AFF3-4E24-8600-46B08F7A510C.thumb.gif.874639288d74cc852342ae838631a243.gif

Coming soon, to a 4000ft munro near you: Widespread record-breaking cold with snow! :yahoo:

Edit: I only went and spelled munro wrongly, dind't I?. Daft old Farquhar!:oops:

Edited by Ed Stone

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Here's the ECM, GEM, GFS and FV3 at T240:

image.thumb.jpg.e23a266752a6e24ace573afdfe8f4d1c.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.895fd885994ae68ddeaf4725e932be55.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.95de96499caf90e43b40b1024874e462.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.ca094dfa9bc8ee8f18979dd9737e05cf.jpg

Forget the UK for a mo, ECM alone maintaining heights over Greenland, I hope this is a signal that is on the way out, but not quite extinguished yet it seems.   

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Posted (edited)

I feel the Ecm 12z @ T+240 screams potential..bare with me😉..  once the trough swings southeast across the uk the azores high which is waiting patiently in the azores for its opportunity will then build strongly NE across the uk.. nae problem!! :shok::crazy:

ECM1-240.gif

F1E4CD7A-ED68-496F-9C37-A166975CEDAA.gif.b4e6f22aad13edd1c74905175d85f0e3.gif

Edited by Frosty.

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The dreaded summer green blobs are a complete lottery. Sometimes they produce days of endless rain but this time it hasnt been too bad. Sunny spells and warm today and that looks set to continue until Friday. One of those where the weather is nowhere near as bad as the charts look.

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You may laugh, you may not but bare with me😉..  The Gem 12z follows a similar route to the Ecm run but a bit faster and you can see what I meant by my earlier comments regarding the azores high waiting for the trough to clear east for it to then build in behind it!👍:oldgood:

gem-0-240.png

ECM1-240 (1).gif

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Posted (edited)

Comparing the Ecm 12z ensemble mean to the operational @ T+240 hours, the mean gets my vote!!!!👍😜

EDM1-240.GIF

ECM1-240.gif

Edited by Frosty.

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The ext EPS has been reasonable consistent over the last three days with the pattern and has in fact 'sharpened' it up a tad which is not totally surprising. The main players upstream are the trough/ridge in the SW/SE united States and the vortex lobe in the Hudson Bay area. This combination results in a strong westerly upper flow exiting the north east seaboard under the continuing Greenland ridge to the now established trough over the UK. This would portend unsettled weather, perhaps trending towards a N/S split, and temps a tad below average.

10-15.thumb.png.dddd480230305bb4384dadd8db2a4737.png7-12.thumb.png.c46efc2073eea15b0d366b03b51af0a4.png

NOAA is in the same ball park

610day_03.thumb.gif.a677c928f5c1952c7ba2fa055ee4ecdf.gif814day_03.thumb.gif.67b9b86964bd135627e955d6d1346d1a.gif

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33 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

You may laugh, you may not but bare with me😉..  The Gem 12z follows a similar route to the Ecm run but a bit faster and you can see what I meant by my earlier comments regarding the azores high waiting for the trough to clear east for it to then build in behind it!👍:oldgood:

gem-0-240.png

ECM1-240 (1).gif

If the GEM says it's going to rain, it's going rain! image.png.44fea1227b1e50d2447d85a74707b9a2.png

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1 hour ago, mb018538 said:

Cracking ECM....by 240 we are nearly in June and still having 850s of 0 to -2c across the UK. Depressing.

Northern Blocking....the theme of this coming summer, Plenty of cold flooding south thanks to some record cold in the Artic..interesting times and some interesting weat her this coming Summer to say the least for the Uk......Thunderstorm  potential at  its best👍 Well except the odd Spanish Plume

🤣

 

 

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38 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Northern Blocking....the theme of this coming summer, Plenty of cold flooding south thanks to some record cold in the Artic..interesting times and some interesting weat her this coming Summer to say the least for the Uk......Thunderstorm  potential at  its best👍 Well except the odd Spanish Plume

🤣

 

 

I get that you like HLB and record cold snaps, perhaps one of these days we will get one, but hopefully at the appropriate time of year! And I think we are highly honoured you have at least promised us a Spanish plume or 2...thankyou kind sir 😉 not sure about the really cold Arctic though, below is a map of temperatures there last month, and tbh, things haven't changed much since... 👍

Figure2b.png

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Northern Blocking....the theme of this coming summer, Plenty of cold flooding south thanks to some record cold in the Artic..interesting times and some interesting weat her this coming Summer to say the least for the Uk......Thunderstorm  potential at  its best👍 Well except the odd Spanish Plume

🤣

 

 

More hyperbole yet again, the arctic has actually been much warmer average. Where is the record cold coming from? and before you say the below anomaly chart is fake, why is arctic sea ice extent so depleted?

image.thumb.png.3eda2eaf3e4261bb0c11d5432877152c.pngimage.thumb.png.2de76f4e936ef43f6a598690dcab4a74.png 

Besides... a northerly hardly represents thunderstorm potential at its best! A variable outlook ahead and a cool end to May is a possibility but that depends on whether we get a northerly or the low pressure next week gets stuck out west. A cool NW/N wind looks the more likely for now. 

 

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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Back on topic please.

Report posts that you think are disruptive, rather than replying to them. Or, use the multiquote feature and reply to them (in a polite manner) here

Thanks.

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Posted (edited)

The NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8396800.thumb.png.b78ff3a276408d4b2be726a2b93a99d8.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.ba27704f5df6efec2019b06f6a277925.gif

Once early morning stratus/mist has cleared the east coast it should be a sunny and warm day in the light airs for N.Ireland, Wales and England with just a slight risk of an isolated shower. A tad cooler along the coasts as sea breezes kick in.  Not so Scotland where currently there is some persistent rain across the north east, courtesy of the occlusion, but this should cease as the front drifts away. But only to be replaced by the development of heavy, and perhaps thundery, showers through the day which will spread down through central and southern areas, They could well coalesce along the trough. The temp variation reflects all of this

PPVE89.thumb.gif.b494aba37b6a6bc951ac59c982d9574c.gif809479335_maxtu.thumb.png.028bae3224057a85e8156e4842775120.pngps_reflec_d02_15.thumb.png.c2a771223de6ac53b5ce295c263dc515.pngps_reflec_d02_18.thumb.png.e0f02823beaf0f5ef48c3993f2e988e2.pngps_reflec_d02_21.thumb.png.30ff5578e480c7c9848ab12f273a09ad.pngps_reflec_d02_24.thumb.png.74c048cf31c659496cdebd2fa07158b4.png

The showers will eventually die out this evening leaving a clear night for all with the odd fog patch by morning. But some rain will sneak into the north of Scotland again by morning as the occlusion moves a tad south.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.0fa50d887f97f952dfb5df1cf1a32209.gif1655099951_r21.thumb.png.fe339366edb422fd05f55f981e468834.png1583263346_r06.thumb.png.a0e8dd7517e64d497651b305707be1f3.png

Apart from some brief showery rain across N. Ireland and northern England for a time in the morning it will be another warm and sunny day in most places on Wednesday with the usual caveats. But the front will continue to bring persistent rain to northern Scotland throughout the day

PPVI89.thumb.gif.18eaa5a9260d35bd86ca857ffd76d646.gif1023863260_maxwed.thumb.png.987806085b4515f18857d28dcd7b8b92.pngp09.thumb.png.bdf65355c090d0cab85dcf434b88a236.pngp12.thumb.png.c305d2917e45dd085caa17f440d9d00e.pngp15.thumb.png.0023fce819404df92ae11478402446c4.pngp18.thumb.png.3cbfa65e2c686cdac58c298e8720832a.png

Over Wednesday night and into Thursday the slow change is underway that has been mentioned in previous posts and the troughs to the NE and in the Atlantic are taking closer order. At the moment this just results in an occlusion edging in to Ireland and the south west which  will bring patchy rain to western regions through Thursday, Elsewhere still dry and quite warm

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8612800.thumb.png.c8954d6b435878638b618f72546d6df5.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.493198aa7515a90fb83e8f358656afd1.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.dfb80191322f48556dff74cac025249a.gif

133862143_rainth.thumb.png.59a74f12a9d8f79640ee8d317d3cdef2.png1245834125_maxth.thumb.png.fb84997dd7b3135c24e6fe28b92935f4.png

The waving, and weakening, occlusion tracks slowly across the country on Friday thus a sunshine and showers day. But another frontal system is approaching west of Ireland

PPVM89.thumb.gif.4af6e6b7908c7fd17affde9d1d075ded.gif959132396_rainfr.thumb.png.55826c77e464ac4bb5999c511705ec13.png1770281640_maxfr.thumb.png.4573c679275479ac9eb08cd2203fd85b.png

Much of the country will be dry with the odd shower as the occlusion is still hanging about, but during the day more cloud and patchy rain will arrive in the west and south,courtesy of the warm front which is part of the elongated trough across the Atlantic.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.d72c85d1b88daacddf53725b3b2c7517.gif1045522626_maxsat.thumb.png.4a28df75bae3f4d61b91f8a63faaa96a.png385816283_rainsat.thumb.png.ad25953208046ff9d86abcb0a18d3694.png

 

Edited by knocker

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The  detail over Sunday and Monday is still tricky as frontal systems slide east so as a general overview we are looking at sunshine and showers with some longer periods of rain and also quite breezy at first.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8915200.thumb.png.fa6f9438d4906494ceee7399c9625829.pnggfs-uk-precip_6hr_inch-8893600.thumb.png.532c2b22f527ea1bbdc63ecbf4f5333d.pnggfs-uk-precip_6hr_inch-8980000.thumb.png.7286142aa286b85a03dc389d3ea944e9.png

After that we are looking at trough domination and unsettled but best left I feel. Obviously all of this is according to the gfs

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-9131200.thumb.png.f389321621b1e8c1f4d49cac8f33788e.png

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Posted (edited)

Could this (courtesy of the 00Z) be the first of many such wafts-of-warmth?:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.97c8600a5b06e390071d9e5baa3b57c4.pngimage.thumb.png.ff280a0d4d44deed89b15f91725a02bc.png 

The FV3's not the same, but still ends alright::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.63b6cd5ec7ba08909fc436d74679dd7b.pngimage.thumb.png.6727ab967e7eff4a0bf6b05327c55c79.png

Ensembles are not too bad either, and still suggest a pressure-rise, come June:

image.thumb.png.68b0f1742ec550fcd157fb27787329ed.pngimage.thumb.png.9de8b9680c9cd86132d0416d4e7a1800.png 

Edited by Ed Stone

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The ecm has the wave tracking across northern Scotland on Sunday with the associated front moving south east. So quite wet in the north. and another front associated with the main trough bringing rain the north west on Monday. As mentioned earlier a fair mix of weather,

847310802_rainsun.thumb.png.b04aa307ea91b39b1c231c812302349f.png644193331_rainsund.thumb.png.1610df124236a13c2493769b49fc67ae.png

From this point the trough taking charge and the detail best left a while

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom-9001600.thumb.png.cab690d1358977d01ab29cde2f4a4a0e.png

 

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GFS also shows it gradually turning more unsettled as we end May and move into June with some rain for all parts northern Scotland could see close to 100mm in some parts

144-777UK.thumb.gif.2682defb13fc742b951a43ecc4643631.gif192-777UK.thumb.gif.02f644a07f756b2e5b851b861a22b1ea.gif240-777UK.thumb.gif.d23242783a0d7bd5801200b487bef3f6.gif

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16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

GFS also shows it gradually turning more unsettled as we end May and move into June with some rain for all parts northern Scotland could see close to 100mm in some parts

144-777UK.thumb.gif.2682defb13fc742b951a43ecc4643631.gif192-777UK.thumb.gif.02f644a07f756b2e5b851b861a22b1ea.gif240-777UK.thumb.gif.d23242783a0d7bd5801200b487bef3f6.gif

but we have decent weather before then, easy to just bypass weather you don't like

image.thumb.png.985521f9b552925bb61eb2cad6d7bf9f.pngECM1-96.GIF?21-12ECM1-120.GIF?21-12

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35 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

image.thumb.png.4c64957c2b651be8299992c5785e7df0.pngimage.thumb.png.a3726cb52dcd48c21dfaaec76b68d6f4.png

No words needed.

It's beautiful!!..sunshine and heavy thundery showers..what's not to like?😜

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