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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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Posted (edited)

The ecm interpretation for the weekend is not as bad as the gfs and after a sunshine and showers day Saturday with a west/east temp variation, with above average over the latter the frontal rain will track east overnight and through Sunday,

r174.thumb.png.11aa9d49a6058316f9fee2d12fd5b2f3.pngr186.thumb.png.a73dce94ead5319b518236d1002cd6ce.pngindex.thumb.png.725081b7cda456616754584a37352535.png

And the 5-10 anomaly  which pretty much fits with last night's. Not a brilliant outlook

ecmwf-nhemi-z500_anom_5day-9088000.thumb.png.52422c7623f81ee9252e5fee94599779.png

Edited by knocker

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The GFS 00Z ends on a very positive note, this morning, with a strengthening signal for a Continental build of high pressure:

image.thumb.png.966ac0fc0dc475fb5c5218dbf7f75fe5.pngimage.thumb.png.5d695a367053c1720d45825261feae2d.png  :oldgood:

The Para has nothing simmler:

image.thumb.png.9b2fb29ca11e96c7f3d984fe2c0374bc.pngimage.thumb.png.1199530013a1efede9487ce85cc8833f.png :shok:

And the ensembles make no sense at all!

image.thumb.png.b4bf9045dffeb22fa352b4bb809ae82c.pngimage.thumb.png.fcbf952a633eeadbe93dab14990208a0.png :help:

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I notice the Ecm 00z ensemble mean still shows the azores ridge / high lurking with intent further ahead,  and following today and tomorrows warm sunshine and scattered heavy showers with thunder, tuesday and wednesday indicate a window of drier weather for most areas. 

 

EDM1-168.GIF

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

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Posted (edited)

Even the Gem 00z shows it's not a completely unsettled outlook and the azores high is lurking close to the southwest @ T+240 hours..it's really not a terrible outlook, mostly it looks like warm strong sunshine and scattered heavy, thundery showers with generally light winds,  a few drier days and a few wetter days..and it's still spring..that's enough poo polishing from me until my next post!!👍💩😁

gem-0-204.png

gem-0-240.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Nice to see a 'potential' belt of HP developing to our south. Just need the whole lot to migrate northward a bit. It may be a tad early for that, just now, though -- as it's still only Spring!:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.34cc0615872e82bd9add7046187cdeae.pngimage.thumb.png.519e9640fadbf60fb841baaa96364062.png 

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A quite nice end to the 06Z -- keeping in mind the JHC (John Holmes Caveat) the fact that there's little in the way of any strong Continental HP, on this run, may mean little or nothing, anyway? More importantly (IMO) is the seeming lack of anything too detrimental in terms of Northern Blocking...?:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.cbc96905f66eec595417f6e2a49645b7.pngimage.thumb.png.1b0a28b279a3ee0044437d8399f829db.png 

As an aside, I'm think that the Summer pattern (whatever that is) won't be evident until mid-June?:cc_confused:

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The FV3, after having thrown an annoying wodge of snot in or direction, does end on a slightly more positive note:

Snot: image.thumb.png.a5955c4c8bb0fa36a820275d0f4fbffb.png image.thumb.png.24f5e652a29699daa7aa6a376abe7c60.png 🤮

Positive: image.thumb.png.931dc0c8586ffed8f67e24f399b6b940.png image.thumb.png.0015fa77bdc39e795ab962794e810648.png 👍 

Build it, and they will come!

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Posted (edited)

I battled my way through the GEFS 6z cack / crud..it was a smelly dangerous journey but I think it was worth the effort..it might be a great start to summer..but then again..it might not!!👍💩😜🔥

GFSP03EU06_372_1.png

GFSP04EU06_372_2.png

GFSP09EU06_372_1.png

GFSP09EU06_372_2.png

GFSP10EU06_372_2.png

GFSP18EU06_372_1.png

GFSP18EU06_372_2.png

Edited by Frosty.

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06Z ensembles: image.thumb.png.2588da4eabb7cf7e0dc462cf6f6a52da.png image.thumb.png.7694427e02662bdb6f0fc3161695f81c.png

A slight, but discernible, over all rise in SLP?:oldgrin:

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Posted (edited)

The dominant forces are the arctic high, and remains of the PV lobe north scandinavia - these are putting pressure and forcing on any azores high ridge development, and thanks to a rather ineffectual jetstream it allows for slow moving patterns, with pressure neither very low or high in the vicinity of the UK, at this time of year it makes for very showery conditions, some places will escape any precipitation others may be caught out on a number of occasions.

Temperatures varying close to the average maximum wise, a bit above in any lengthy settled sunny weather, minimums will be held up which will enable CET values to go a bit above average, but not especially so.

A westerly flow may develop just in time for bank holiday weekend, with a frontal feature moving through, not particularly wet.. thereafter, a messy end to May.. showery most probably, near average temperatures. Good growing weather - all very normal.

Edited by damianslaw

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Posted (edited)

Looking at the output today folks, I still think they do not have a firm grip on things!! ECM for instance seems to have the Azores high as a key player to our SW, while the GFS seems a little less inclined to build it in!! One thing I will say is the last few days were meant to be very showery, and to this point I have witnessed 1 light shower with it being actually fine and warm, and again today... So this is not bad weather at all considering we are meant to be under low pressure! I'm noticing from long range forecasts and exeter talk of a slumberous Atlantic going forward... So this would imply that settled Conditions moving forward could be more prolonged!! Certainly no signs of a 2012 repeat.... On the other hand, no signs of a 2018 repeat! But all in all, I think quite a favourable pattern moving forward, and to finish ECM not looking to bad for more southern parts of the UK for the bank holiday.. 

ECM1-120 (1).gif

ECM1-144 (1).gif

ECM1-168 (1).gif

ECM1-192 (1).gif

Edited by Mattwolves

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Absolutely, Matt: everything's looking set, for a classic 2019-like pattern to develop!:oldgrin:

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Sat image 1322 UTC

sat.thumb.JPG.492053d9b429a6d9c05ba4a58fa9f2ee.JPG13.thumb.gif.10245c19fd76b5971e4c3c526028d1e0.gif

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27 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Absolutely, Matt: everything's looking set, for a classic 2019-like pattern to develop!:oldgrin:

Absolutely Pete.... This one's got 2019 all over it... 😉

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Posted (edited)

I like the look of this from the cfs 0z..and it's only 1044 hours away..roll on juillet!!👍😜🔥🌞

cfs-2-1044.png

cfs-0-1050.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I like the look of this from the cfs 0z..and it's only 1044 hours away!!👍😜🔥🌞

cfs-2-1044.png

cfs-0-1050.png

It May as well be 1044 days away Karl 😉 still on a positive note the CFS is consistently showing some cracking summer weather going forward... 👍

Edited by Mattwolves

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Looking further into FI on the cfs ...hope this downgrades!!:help:💩

cfs-1-5442.png

cfs-0-5466.png

cfs-0-5448.png

cfs-2-5448.png

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Boom there it is Karl... I told you we would get our Spanish plume, sooner or later.... 😉😜

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Posted (edited)

ICON 12z with a big shift towards a ridge that encompasses the UK at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.7b8a758e11b8b7b99bf8891563a99847.jpg

Compare with 0z at same time:

image.thumb.jpg.d7173608de60cd7fd7fcabb55d038fac.jpg

Will be interesting to see if this is replicated on the UKMO and the other models later.

ICON T180 end of the run:

image.thumb.jpg.080b1a36dc9fb0e66ebc1e8e7a5005b6.jpg

Summer watch begins....😎

 

Edited by Mike Poole

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Posted (edited)

And support from the UKMO at T144, the bank holiday weekend now looking anything but a washout for many, quite the opposite, here:

image.thumb.jpg.295fc3c5caead335a541776cfdf42582.jpg

0z T144 for comparison but note 12 hrs earlier:

image.thumb.jpg.27cd90f63a3a3fe6991f3ea2b22164bc.jpg

Spot the difference over Southern Greenland as well?

Edited by Mike Poole

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12Z not looking too bad, either::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.6240c78320f656bb0f45ff689440b711.pngimage.thumb.png.e45563dfe3979fef908354553deba646.png 

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To complete the round up as at T144 here is GEM:

image.thumb.jpg.8f6904e5d64074f3bd72df700acd060b.jpg

and GFS, and jet stream:

image.thumb.jpg.9ad099c992bf8f4e88aa60c1f9041c42.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.4b64d270ddff69d079014cefbf3d4b1b.jpg

We seem to have gone from uncertainty about everything to a cross model consensus since I was posting last night.  Roll on summer...🍺

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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

I like the look of this from the cfs 0z..and it's only 1044 hours away..roll on juillet!!👍😜🔥🌞

cfs-2-1044.png

cfs-0-1050.png

bloody 'eck Frosty! very hot chart for Novak Djokovic, first up on centre at 1pm

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Posted (edited)

Possibly, depending on cloud-cover, somewhere might even better the mid-20s, on Sunday?:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.2fe56a45fe89733b98f10dec749ae7ca.pngimage.thumb.png.1482a72dd3f7f0e63b08f4632ad41c30.png 

Roll on Julie!!!!!!!!!!!:yahoo:

 

Edited by Ed Stone

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For a while the Gem 12z improves with pleasant surface conditions thanks to the azores ridge!👍

Mike beat me to it..not that it's a race or anything!!😜

gem-0-72.png

gem-0-96.png

gem-0-144.png

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