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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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1 hour ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Good heavens. At least up to 22*C above average in some places! 😲

Those anomolies are in Fahrenheit.

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And now for something completely different: the FV3::shok:

image.thumb.png.85e19d92fcd5dbfaa886efdb8a40eb48.pngimage.thumb.png.dc365bf6cd060eeec4ae907de64d7918.png 

Glasgow, you require: 🎯

Edited by Ed Stone

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12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I mentioned this yesterday Matt 👍😉

I no it had been mentioned Karl, but wasn't sure of the source... Cheers mate 👍

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The GEFS 6z mean looks ok next week, some warm fine weather and showers, it turns cooler and more unsettled from the north during the following week before a recovery towards the end.

Edited by Frosty.

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Gav thinks June will be hot.   Short term and Long term models differing

 

 

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There's some really vile stuff showing on the GEFS 6z beyond next week, trust me there is BUT on the other hand, there's a possibility of a cracking start to this meteorological summer!!👍 🔥🌞

GFSP01EU06_384_1.png

GFSP03EU06_384_2.png

GFSP12EU06_384_2.png

GFSP12EU06_384_1.png

GFSP13EU06_384_2.png

GFSP13EU06_384_1.png

GFSP15EU06_384_1.png

GFSP17EU06_372_2.png

GFSP17EU06_372_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Just to take a cheeky look at the CFS operational for the bank holiday... Plenty of ridging on the scene, especially to the SW, so all in all, not to bad! And by the latter part of the month, the Azores high really is sticking it's beak in. Temps by now on the improve, especially away from the North.. 

cfs-0-192.png

cfs-0-216.png

cfs-0-240.png

cfs-2-240.png

cfs-0-288.png

cfs-0-312.png

cfs-0-336.png

cfs-2-324.png

cfs-2-348.png

Edited by Mattwolves

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The ukmo 12h indicates showery trough influence but with some sunshine it would feel warm with the warmest parts of the s / se nudging into the low 20's celsius.

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Not looking exactly gripping, is it? The long wait, for hot swedes continues!:shok:

image.thumb.png.f0d59d1caf67d2957da92bee86663972.pngimage.thumb.png.3e3336a0fae404438c33a98f31343641.pngimage.thumb.png.88661de3f51f3d4ab2da3455d0ba9003.png

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According to the cfs FI shows a marked improvement on previous runs, I don't think we would need to fret about North sea Haar!!👍😉

cfs-2-4746.png

cfs-0-4746.png

Edited by Frosty.

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image.thumb.png.62a17e0f1484fda4bb989e5c03980ef7.pngimage.thumb.png.a92bc1f1f019c7ef364355f750194662.png

Impressive Greenland high in both strength and scope but the cold air is gathering to our east rather then over the UK as seen earlier in the month.

A warm, weak cyclonic pattern prevails next week but the cool air could still make it to our shores just in time for the bank holiday weekend if the 12z is to be believed.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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4 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Much better by Day 16. What could possibly go wrong!😄

image.thumb.png.ebe469e7d9836fc505ad23416c440455.pngimage.thumb.png.1021bca04f0810979142063f816882ec.png 

I was thinking the same about Day 198 in my post above!:gathering:

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43 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

According to the cfs FI shows a marked improvement on previous runs, I don't think we would need to fret about North sea Haar!!👍😉

cfs-2-4746.png

cfs-0-4746.png

Is this the BFTE that we were expecting last Dec? which was delayed to Jan then Feb then March.......these patterns are like Brexit...keep getting delayed and may never happen 🤣

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From what I can see the GEFS 12z mean indicates a mixture of showery trough disturbances and weak ridges next week with reasonable temperatures, at least further south where it could feel quite warm, especially in any sunshine and then further ahead we start to see a more typical north / south split with atlantic weather further north whereas further south has more ridging influence from the azores but is not immune from some atlantic weather too.

Edited by Frosty.

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Guys can we put a petition together to just bag the FV3, it did nothing but Lead us up the garden path all winter, now it seems inclined to lead us up the garden path all summer! CFS is most definitely the king of models, namely due to the fact its the only one showing decent weather.. 😉

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4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Guys can we put a petition together to just bag the FV3, it did nothing but Lead us up the garden path all winter, now it seems inclined to lead us up the garden path all summer! CFS is most definitely the king of models, namely due to the fact its the only one showing decent weather.. 😉

Why not give each model a unique signature tune? For the FV3:

 

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Put this date in your diaries folks... June 2nd!! Officially the start of summer 2019...this is when the warmth begins.... How do i no? Well the GFS says so... 👍

gfs-1-372.png

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Just a small sample of what the start of the meteorological summer might have in store for us from the GEFS 12z!👍🌞🔥

GFSAVGEU12_384_1.png

GFSP03EU12_384_1.png

GFSP07EU12_384_1.png

GFSP08EU12_384_1.png

GFSP12EU12_384_1.png

GFSP18EU12_384_1.png

GFSP18EU12_384_2.png

GFSP20EU12_384_1.png

GFSP20EU12_384_2.png

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The 12Z ensembles are here!:yahoo::yahoo:

image.thumb.png.938c29c8c4b4a05fd599dd8487f3c56e.pngimage.thumb.png.531824a2cbeb5585a994c41cbd953780.png                                                                                  image.thumb.png.ad02fe517613489940b8ccc9df1dc11a.png  

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Looking at the Ecm 12z it's a mixture of sunshine and showers next week, some heavy and thundery so it's similar to this weekend and temperatures should be into the high teens to low 20's celsius, warmest further s / e / se.

Edited by Frosty.

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ECM desperately trying to nose high pressure in towards us by next weekend... I've noticed some very cold uppers to our North as well.... No need to panic folks... Keep calm, we are getting there.. 

ECM1-192.gif

ECM1-216.gif

ECM0-216.gif

3xjI6q.gif

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The Ecm 12z is a mess but at least it's a warm mess!👍☔🌞

Edited by Frosty.

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Just now, Frosty. said:

The Ecm 12is turns into a mess but at least it's a warm mess!👍☔🌞

just hope not coldest Whit week on record, not the first model run suggesting vile around 240, but yes, next week looking good

ECM1-240.GIF?17-0

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