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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Extracts posted last week on closed thread:   The other part of the equation is the seasonal transition within the stratosphere from its winter default vortex position to its summer state. T

Greetings to you all! ? A glistening new thread for the month of May and early Summer! As we head deeper into Spring and into Summer (though I guess for some, May could be classed as a Summer

There are no apologies for self quoting a significant extract of the post the other day because its central focus becomes more primary to how NWP evolves in the remainder of this month and into the st

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36 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

That's alright we're going to Tenby from Mon - Fri next week and apart from Mon & Tues morning it's looking wet & miserable ? was really hoping for some decent weather as we're doing lots of walking and going on boat trips! 

Not sure about the walking, but certainly good weather for boats ? hopefully you will get a few windows of fine weather thrown in... Good luck 

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Looking at the ukmo 12h by next wednesday it's unsettled but at least much milder compared to what's coming from the north very shortly!?

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8 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The Mighty GFS's take on next Thursday; I hope we can agree that it's unsettled?:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.8bc33ead64321184b4d6d83c7e7d7a8e.pngimage.thumb.png.0794c63c295da00a2c9a0bb368bb3d70.png 

Indeed Ed, although changeable is by definition unsettled, that is 100 percent unsettled..glad that's unsettled..I mean settled!!!??

Edited by Frosty.
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49 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The Mighty GFS's take on next Thursday; I hope we can agree that it's unsettled?:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.8bc33ead64321184b4d6d83c7e7d7a8e.pngimage.thumb.png.0794c63c295da00a2c9a0bb368bb3d70.png 

If it's any consolation the GEM looks a bit better though than the GFS :oldrofl:  Even though they do handle the low a bit differently even so it still looks a bit pants. 

 

gem-0-174.png

Edited by Summerstorm
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Just now, SizzlingHeat said:

This time last year it was flip flops and shorts. This year is a complete u turn. What an awful start to a typically summer month ?

Last year was pretty exceptional, though.  I still think it will turn much warmer or even hot at times during the second half of the month.

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Again there is a signal, this time from the Gfs 12z operational for high pressure to at least try to build in around mid may, other output, including the mean also suggests a switch to more settled from mid month....  As does Exeter!!?

12_384_mslp500.png

Edited by Frosty.
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3 minutes ago, Don said:

Last year was pretty exceptional, though.  I still think it will turn much warmer or even hot at times during the second half of the month.

I do hope so. We wait all winter for northern blocking then BANG.... Beginning of May, have as much northern blocking as you can ask for. I can see this pattern being locked in for a considerable time, going with the extended ensembles and others posting on here. Might have to concede and give in that the first half of may is looking most likely to be a write off. Hopefully the 2nd half of may will improve significantly, but im not holding my breath.

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3 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

I do hope so. We wait all winter for northern blocking then BANG.... Beginning of May, have as much northern blocking as you can ask for. I can see this pattern being locked in for a considerable time, going with the extended ensembles and others posting on here. Might have to concede and give in that the first half of may is looking most likely to be a write off. Hopefully the 2nd half of may will improve significantly, but im not holding my breath.

We will just have to wait and see, but of course we have the full summer to come yet anyway.

Edited by Don
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14 minutes ago, Don said:

We will just have to wait and see, but of course we have the full summer to come yet anyway.

Aye, May isn't summer, next 20 days a write off I'd say, but Whit Week who knows could be better, but even that's not summer

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GFS = Bland    ECM = Bland    GEM = Bland  

I can see where its all heading. Vile sypnotic patterns are always known to stick around like glue. Wasn't the last time we had a cool start to May back in 2012?  Only two weeks ago it was looking like 2018 repeat now its looking like a 2012 repeat.  Uk weather will do what it pleases so anything can change.  

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It's a plume, Jim, but not as we know it! image.thumb.png.ea715bfa47ac82ad889c58712a8a0402.png       ?                                                                                                 image.thumb.png.f67babb7b4e9ef06feada3e9fdabcac2.png

 

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The GEFS 12z mean also picking up on the switch to more settled around mid month, perhaps a little sooner!!..the second half of May could become a whole lot better for the majority of the uk!? 

GFSAVGEU12_276_1.png

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GFSAVGEU12_366_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
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14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

It's a plume, Jim, but not as we know it! image.thumb.png.ea715bfa47ac82ad889c58712a8a0402.png       ?                                                                                                 image.thumb.png.f67babb7b4e9ef06feada3e9fdabcac2.png

 

Hopefully we won't kling-on to the cool unsettled weather for too long Ed..?

giphy (2).gif

Edited by Frosty.
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40 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, May isn't summer, next 20 days a write off I'd say, but Whit Week who knows could be better, but even that's not summer

Exactly, that's my point.  We still have June, July and August to come!

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Beautiful comma-shaped PolarLow currently developing over Norwegian sea. H/t Mile Rantanen The formation of the low is probably triggered by a tropopause polar vortex (TPV) over the open ocean.

polar.thumb.png.905cf2aca1b57d810afe4342cbb926a7.png

Edited by knocker
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The Ecm 12z  is looking pretty cold, especially further north and unsettled for most of the time but it's not all doom and gloom as there will be some fine weather this weekend and early next week, especially away from eastern counties bordering the north sea but some frosty nights to come..then more generally unsettled as we go further into next week with wet and windy weather... it ends better though with pressure rising across the board!?

240_mslp500 (1).png

Edited by Frosty.
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1 hour ago, SizzlingHeat said:

This time last year it was flip flops and shorts. This year is a complete u turn. What an awful start to a typically summer month ?

Then we can’t expect a long hot summer?  Very different start but also late autumns haven’t helped winter outlooks either so all up in the air (pardon the pun).  One thing though no anticipated plume warmth by some arriving yet...very very tough to call what’s coming.... 

 

BFTP

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