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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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50 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

6z not to bad, some showers around the weekend and early next week, it looks like things becoming more settled again through the week with temps around 20c,perhaps low 20s in a few locations. Low pressure to the NW may bring some more unsettled conditions to more NW parts come the end of next week.... Could we be entering a rinses and repeat situation!! All in all not to bad up until this point, but subject to change as always. 

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But, in the end, Mr GFS could try a wee bitty harder?:gathering:

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FV3 (wonderful model!) hits the spot!

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Edited by Ed Stone

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ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051600_240.

Let's hope cluster one is closer to the mark...a bit more ridging from the SW rather than cluster 2 which is yet another northerly. 


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Even out at day 15 heights are still strong to the north. Any warm and settled weather not on the cards for the rest of this month it would seem. Slightly above average next week, but nothing to really write home about, and certainly not wall to wall sunshine.
 

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The Ecm 00z ensemble mean indicates surface conditions becoming really pleasant, at least for a time next week..following this cooler and soon to be more changeable blip with sunshine and showers it looks like warming up again from sunday and becoming more settled / less unsettled at the same time!👍

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Edited by Frosty.

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Looking at the GEFS 6z mean we can clearly see an improvement next week, especially from midweek with increasing ridging and temperatures are looking on the warm side into the high teens to low 20's celsius for many..further ahead there are indications the azores high / ridge will stay close to the uk with a chance of high pressure becoming established during the last third of may, by no means guaranteed but I'm just being positive!!👍

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Thick Ci and Ac down here for most of the day

2019051612.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.7ec1446d6f06b3af0cca8d14c66f83de.gifgfs_midRH_eu_2.thumb.png.90a1b92e037a0c54212dcf913626f2fb.pngmodis.thumb.JPG.f4f7af1428b3681621134174b94511f6.JPG

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Rainfall accumulation up to Wednesday, Looking dryer thereafter..

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I get the impression from the ukmo 12h that the weather wouldn't  become settled out to day 6 but at least winds become lighter and it would be turning warmer again from sunday, there would also be some dry and sunny weather but an ongoing chance of showers, perhaps less showers than the next few days but still some heavy with thunder.

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Edited by Frosty.

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GFS still doesn't show a signal of anything all that decisive happening...As long as the cold cack stays oop norf, things should be okay?

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Och well, back to watching zombies!:crazy:

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I'm liking the 12z going out beyond a week, I see some strong ridging and some warmer temps in the making.... That's more like it.. 

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The FV3 12z shows plenty of ridging / high pressure eventually next week and beyond, especially further south..maybe one of those typical north / south splits where the north gets the crud and the south has the best of the warmth and sunshine.

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Edited by Frosty.

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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The FV3 12z shows plenty of ridging / high pressure eventually next week and beyond, especially further south..maybe one of those typical north / south splits where the north gets the crud and the south has the best of the warmth and sunshine.

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But, as the FV3 is such a crud model, it's still trying to send northerly cack in our direction. On the other hand, the area of hot air, to our south, is getting slowly bigger? Must be a Brexit Party conference or something!:crazy:

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06Z ensembles: image.thumb.png.e00c9d908a178ffa49aabc9a51911e41.png image.thumb.png.3f4c8a716dd2bcb4bc2140aca9964602.png

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Those are the 6z ensembles Pete, all that talk of hot air is going to your head... 😉😂

Ps.... On the other hand you may already know this 👍

Edited by Mattwolves

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The Gem 12z is pretty encouraging with the azores high eventually ridging in and becoming warmer, best further south. The general theme of the models is for temperatures to bounce back to above average following the cooler blip in the next few days and after a showery spell, next week could gradually become drier...at least there wouldn't be any north sea haar to fret about!!😜

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Edited by Frosty.

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There's good news from the GEFS 12z mean, it becomes warmer and pressure gradually rises next week which reduces or eliminates the showers risk, longer term i'm sensing a north / south split with the best weather further south.

Edited by Frosty.

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18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There's good news from the GEFS 12z mean, it becomes warmer and pressure gradually rises next week which reduces or eliminates the showers risk, longer term i'm sensing a north / south split with the best weather further south.

Aye, very unusual that, would usually expect it the other way round! until mid July that is, then south normally better than north

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12Z GEFS ensembles are approaching stonkerdom. Not quite yet. But getting there!:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.f766b2ea92805c5437c76db1b8950a30.pngimage.thumb.png.83fc10f607268a26348263c913ba44f9.png 

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The Ecm 12z is not a settled run by any means but it does contain some fine and warm weather at times but also showery spells, typical late spring really.

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ECM run pretty unsettled. Few warm days and a few unsettled days a real mixed bag really . 

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14 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

ECM run pretty unsettled. Few warm days and a few unsettled days a real mixed bag really . 

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The models keep building extremely unwelcome Greeny highs.

Invisible Nov -Feb one after the other in May..

Edited by northwestsnow

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

The models keep building extremely unwelcome Greeny highs.

Invisible Nov -Feb one after the other in May..

Yes mate very frustrating model watching lately seeing all these charts go to waste . We’ve surly gotta have a decent winter around the corner with charts coming off like the ones above , let’s hope it’s winter 19/20 . 

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20 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

let’s hope it’s winter 19/20 . 

Just had a look at the cfs in FI and it's a euro slug dominated winter but there could be a 6 hour northerly toppler in january:help:💩😁

Edited by Frosty.

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Glancing at the models this evening - mmm not a clear picture, UK in something of a no-mans land with low heights to the SE not going anywhere fast, heights trying to regain control but with weak effort, and the azores high in no rush to surge NE..

Perhaps things may become clearer tomorrow as to how the latter part of the month may play out, for the immediate its a mixed outlook, average temps at best cooler than average maxes cancelled out by some milder minima.

May 2019 has potential to end up a very mixed month with a bit of everything.

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean suggests some pleasant surface conditions returning next week with a Col..an area of slack pressure, there are signs of ridging but not enough to stop the risk of showers, however, with light winds, some sunshine and warmer temperatures it's not a bad end to spring however you slice it.

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Gfs 18Z is out and you couldn't really find a worser looking chart to introduce the first day of meteorological summer!!!  A disgusting looking LP whacked right over the UK, its not even green snot just a cold blue blob with June 2012 written on it  ...Its FI so.hopefully a one run wonder.

 

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Edited by 38.5*C

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Ugly chart for the start of the meteorological summer

 

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Edited by Weather-history

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