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DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Ok, been watching this forum/model watching since winter but slightly scratching my head. In the search for cold where FI charts are slated/never happen, we are looking at FI charts showing dross weather....

I would have thought that we all know FI charts just never come to fruition so why are they being brought up? Yes you can look for trends but worrying about them is odd to me.

Actually stu this is a credible and very good post, I've said on here many of times that the model runs are over analized to death!! And tbh I am not seeing any trust worthy pattern or signal devolop! Just the other day ECM looked great, now all of a sudden its showing HLB, which if you ask me leaves alot to be desired.. Has for GFS, can we trust it, for Instance the 0z will show that things are looking up, beore the 6z plays it all down!! And it's like this daily!! I said the other day the models have not got a handle on things at all, and that's always the case when HLB is in the mix. What I think personally is within the next couple of days things will again be looking more rosey!! But your correct talking about what the models are showing in 10+ days is pretty pointless, and tbh.... Very tiring... 👍

Edited by Mattwolves

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11 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Ok, been watching this forum/model watching since winter but slightly scratching my head. In the search for cold where FI charts are slated/never happen, we are looking at FI charts showing dross weather....

I would have thought that we all know FI charts just never come to fruition so why are they being brought up? Yes you can look for trends but worrying about them is odd to me.

An interesting question.

On average, for the NH the models actually verify better in winter than summer.

But two things, first relating to summer: The patterns that deliver warm weather for the UK are generally slow moving anticyclones, so FI is further out for this than for Atlantic dross.  High pressure systems are in the mix in the current set up, for better for worse, so maybe we can trust the models for a day or two longer than normal.

The second point relates to winter.  The setups that might bring snow to the UK in winter tend to be beset by the most uncertainty in the model output, high Shannon entropy etc. a potential easterly in winter has FI often at day 4.   

And posters on here are maybe a bit more chilled in the summer months, that helps! 🍺

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I'm not surprised at the comments tonight, a grim outlook is what one should be expecting. The NAO / AO is in a prolonged negative phase accompanied by an Azores High that has no energy to throw half a decent ridge. Throw in an overly enthusiastic Iceland Low and you have perfect ingredients for crap UK weather.

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6 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

I'm not surprised at the comments tonight, a grim outlook is what one should be expecting. The NAO / AO is in a prolonged negative phase accompanied by an Azores High that has no energy to throw half a decent ridge. Throw in an overly enthusiastic Iceland Low and you have perfect ingredients for crap UK weather.

I dont think we should be expecting it on a bad day at the office! Things could be much better come this time tomorrow. Anyway including the next couple of days, that will be 5 straight warm sunny days here, hardly what I would call crap tbh. 

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13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

An interesting question.

On average, for the NH the models actually verify better in winter than summer.

But two things, first relating to summer: The patterns that deliver warm weather for the UK are generally slow moving anticyclones, so FI is further out for this than for Atlantic dross.  High pressure systems are in the mix in the current set up, for better for worse, so maybe we can trust the models for a day or two longer than normal.

The second point relates to winter.  The setups that might bring snow to the UK in winter tend to be beset by the most uncertainty in the model output, high Shannon entropy etc. a potential easterly in winter has FI often at day 4.   

And posters on here are maybe a bit more chilled in the summer months, that helps! 🍺

Thing is Mike I don't think folk are more chilled in summer, all it takes is for a bad day of model output and the doom merchants are out in force, even on the back of a week of lovely conditions. Some will only be satisfied if they see near perfect conditions daily. Like the end of your post suggests, I really do think folk need to take a beer and chill. 

giphy.gif

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The EPS mean anomaly this evening again has the intense amplification upstream associated with the deep upper low in the NW Atlantic which promotes the amplification of the Atlantic subtropical high. But the position of this is by no means certain (and is quite important) and subsequently this pattern changes quite a lot anyway leading to a relative benign scenario with temps above average,

t174.thumb.png.2dc41144a1b3a62c20cf9cf9898924ea.pngt216.thumb.png.f89ffdcd96980175adbe3935c2da8344.png7-12.thumb.png.8c733802eb4ccddd8dd8537328f47f58.png

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Posted (edited)

There's some good news regarding tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, gradually settles down and warms up next week..👍🌞

EDM1-168.GIF

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM0-192.GIF

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM0-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.

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A bunch of off-topic posts removed.

If you're likely to post one-liners with no merit or you're moaning about what the model output is showing with no illustrations, then head over to the thread below.

 

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3 hours ago, 38.5*C said:

I'm not surprised at the comments tonight, a grim outlook is what one should be expecting. The NAO / AO is in a prolonged negative phase accompanied by an Azores High that has no energy to throw half a decent ridge. Throw in an overly enthusiastic Iceland Low and you have perfect ingredients for crap UK weather.

Are you Alderc in disguise? Yes some of the distant charts may be on the chilly side but it's not in the reliable yet and as I have mentioned a negative phase of the NAO/AO is in no way a guarantee of below average temperatures at this time of year.

On 09/05/2019 at 12:10, 38.5*C said:

Very often May is a 'teaser' for the summer months weather. May 2012, 2015, 2018 were all teasers..  I really can't see 20C being achieved this month under current GFS output and this prolonged N wind. Really disappointing for this time of year. Could be a record breaker if May doesn't hit 20 this year, and if this month is a 'teaser' then a cool summer should be considered.

You kept harping on about how this week would be poor because of chilly easterlies but that really isn't how it has turned out. Do you just like to troll in the summer months? How can you have an Icelandic low and a negative NAO anyway?

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Outlook - The transition from high pressure to low as the former migrates north, then west, as low pressure becomes established over Europe. With the UK in the transition zone, so to speak, detail may be a little difficult to pin down

5-10.thumb.png.6c03e5b394a6fe6d47cbeb1cdd1278cc.png

The NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis and the 0300 WV sat image

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7878400.thumb.png.49327a44178002f1e242efdbb9fe04d4.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.f43eef16a0a24981b074de50c23d2809.gifwv.thumb.JPG.23840dc8724cdeb80c63d3f4436d55b8.JPG

A clear and chilly start to most areas this morning but once any early morning mist clears it will be another warm and sunny day, particularly in the NW of Scotland. Some small Cu might pop up in the north and south east and south west coastal areas will again be a tad cooler with the onshore breeze.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.1b03f940a8ae3ac13dea33e3445e6743.gif602808387_maxwed.thumb.png.5bc51c7230621ec4ee9694d6647a489a.png33626611_streamwed.thumb.png.42852b37404d18242ddfd970c0572133.png

A clear and quite chilly night to follow with mist in some areas and Stratus and fog may well effect northern Scotland.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.5fbf83a24bbc699c490780d31e8fc109.gif

Thursday will be predominately sunny but there is much more cloud around and it will be cooler than today as the aforementioned transition is gathering steam. Particularly in the north east and eastern coastal regions where Stratus could ingress from the North Sea.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8008000.thumb.png.6b9edbee2f8dc9e62e5ca27c277c228a.pngPPVI89.thumb.gif.72560e29fbb8781a71338b388374ad4c.gif

1616707499_maxthurs.thumb.png.43b095e3ca08f6bbae43f1c838ddfba0.png1767021991_streamth.thumb.png.c4f6cdde07c364f217db75e329e99daa.png

By Friday low pressure is staring to make inroads and in the now fresh easterly wind a small warm front tracks across England and Wales accompanied by showery rain. It also results in much lower temps in England and Wales although they hold up quite well north of the border.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.90a6dc04241de755325a88c214faede3.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.4da8bb2ec724e2854201c7833c5d0d05.gif1386372693_rainfr.thumb.png.691a4a146923af6a84f4e791147203ab.png

1695300770_maxfr.thumb.png.43e1efbeee1aa0df21e66c05e17e3a06.png

Over the weekend the UK stays under the umbrella of the negatively tilted upper trough that stretches from southern Greenland to south east Europe, There are a myriad of surface fronts/troughs associated with this and thus a wide range of weather in this essentially unstable air, including frequent showers. heavy at times with hail and thunder in the mix, and also some  longer periods of rain. But there will be plenty of sunshine as well so temps will vary a fair bit but generally around average.

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8180800.thumb.png.a6a59c1e0f78e5bd7d8bbde4b0775cdd.pnggfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8267200.thumb.png.373b7d3055b11b248d6511419f3acdfc.png

PPVM89.thumb.gif.c442a18cb29003cd913ec0652c424e11.gifPPVO89.thumb.gif.52daf01553f2e6ac383a514b37df3b85.gif

622091641_maxsat.thumb.png.170be0ec837565632fc15aa986ede6a9.png1976137741_maxsu.thumb.png.273dec89cd01be9189196948864d878b.png

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According to the gfs during next week the trough influencing the UK weather slips south west as high pressure builds from the south west as the result of developments upstream

As can be seen there is a lot going on in the eastern Pacific and North America resulting in another trough entering the NW Atlantic and promoting amplification of the subtropical high to the west of the UK The amplification develops through the week and by Thursday the trough dominates the western Atlantic and the ridge the east. Thus the UK will slide into a more settled period with temps around average. Well that's the theory

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8396800.thumb.png.396b39f3e5a6fb7be6ae77e3248e0e87.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8612800.thumb.png.31c577fc0ce8fad4425541edc375fe70.png

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Posted (edited)

EC det looks lovely at 144-192 and brings forth the azores high!!😍

image.thumb.png.2e411a58e16261477d1ec1764fd67709.png

That said, and as i alluded to yesterday, next week looks very complicated so with that in mind, i will sit on the fence whether we see a Greeny high/Northerly ala EC 12Z yesterday or this mornings alternative..

Edited by northwestsnow

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14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC det looks lovely at 144-192 and brings forth the azores high!!😍

image.thumb.png.2e411a58e16261477d1ec1764fd67709.png

That said, and as i alluded to yesterday, next week looks very complicated so with that in mind, i will sit on the fence whether we see a Greeny high/Northerly ala EC 12Z yesterday or this mornings alternative..

Yes a much better run this morning - the Atlantic trough preventing the high building in towards Greenland and the polar regions....as such much better in our neck of the woods. Clearly chalk and cheese from last night, so better take a back seat and see how it plays out. Yesterdays 12z was as bad as it gets, the 00z the opposite.

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Posted (edited)

The ecm also drops the trough into the northwest Atlantic at the beginning of next week but the Atlantic is not so amplified as the gfs and the ridge in the east comes under pressure relatively quickly. So after a couple of showery days Monday/Tues, mere settled and drier Wed and Thurs but fronts are effecting western areas by then.

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_7.thumb.png.f17ed46dd82bd6c6c6c1b78f0029484f.png

t144.thumb.png.4905d4f7dca788cdc254c0e1ad0b8e7c.pngt168.thumb.png.d1534c034ef54d92be9267fc5ec76aa0.pngt192.thumb.png.7fefe29e3a7e6331cfc6c4bad2d5ef67.png

But warming up by midweek

index.thumb.png.081e2dc760f36d0ba22645d63f7b4301.png

This is not a million miles away from last evening's mean anomaly

Edited by knocker

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A lot of potential showing at the end of the 00Z::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.d707950c5559b1f486d0c57862419cd2.pngimage.thumb.png.4a7d0b115e1abb4df4768c205e406f80.png 

And the FV3 paints a similar picture, so no sign of record-breaking cold; not a good run, from the Friends' perspective::gathering:

image.thumb.png.f5b6ddbde84464e60498c011b0442951.pngimage.thumb.png.193623feb677f1e3b8ecd7fa9b4a2a03.png

Ensembles are none-too-bad either:

image.thumb.png.1a3c320dc20924fc42b947c5e9abcb54.pngimage.thumb.png.8b8da1977d9ffdd3bcccffa0806f8a5b.png 

 

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The ext EPS certainly not too shabby this morning with the upper flow a point or two north of west as the subtropical high nudges north. This would portend no nasty surprises lurking in the woodshed with temps around average, perhaps a tad above

9-14.thumb.png.44284a7b91679199c74484adfc20202d.png

 

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For the foreseeable it looks like temps around average and little rainfall. zzzzzzz wake me up when it gets a bit more interesting 😴

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Decent Ecm 00z ensemble mean next week with the azores high / ridge coming to say hello and respectable temperatures too..actually following a brief dip, temps are on the rise from sunday!👍

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM0-192.GIF

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM0-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

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3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Decent Ecm 00z ensemble mean next week with the azores high / ridge coming to say hello and respectable temperatures too..actually following a brief dip, temps are on the rise from sunday!👍

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM0-192.GIF

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM0-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

I wouldn't disagree with that, Karl; though, down here, where we've had 14-16C plus a fresh wind, the upcoming 'cool-down' won't really be all that noticeable: 14-16C with some added humidity'll not feel all that bad...It'll also give my mild sunburn time to heal!:oldgood:

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The ukmo 0h @ T+144 hours is just coming into range of next week's improvement with the trough filling and pressure rising.

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

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Warmer uppers edging in by Sunday should make for warmer nights, at least?

image.thumb.png.cc463f07cac11e8acf21d1d53d192e85.pngimage.thumb.png.ace01b5b5945889c087c0512795319b3.png 

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The Gfs 6z operational shows plenty of strong ridging next week so a good deal of fine weather returning!👍

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Nowt to untoward at the end of the 06Z. And the PV remnants are disappearing fast::oldgood:

image.thumb.png.61c5882ee6b73ebe0e3c079db773c18c.pngimage.thumb.png.56bec7e180f6e6a96adace7db0407b14.png 

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Posted (edited)

There's an unsettled end to the 6z operational but at least next week could fine up again and the end of May timeframe is dodgy and subject to much chopping and changing!👍

Ed beat me to it..not that it's a race or anything!😁

Edited by Frosty.

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No, no, no, no noooo! The FV3 has found the woodshed's spare key!:shok:

image.thumb.png.543a83792433378cd9f4a1f5f4e335f3.pngimage.thumb.png.d6216715542ac973f807405cfce56055.png 

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