Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Snow?
Sign in to follow this  
DiagonalRedLine

Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

Recommended Posts

Posted (edited)

And the ensembles point toward some much warmer nights, once we reach the coming weekend; which, combined with a good signal for rain, ought to make for some good growing conditions::oldgrin:

 image.thumb.png.7ec98565ed63b1910a59ccc7877e3e65.png image.thumb.png.bf769aaef75f83e813c7ad4fb3f12b16.png

That said, I do hope that that enormous rain-spike isn't the start of the European monsoon!:shok:

Edited by Ed Stone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Well covered Karl, yes the ECM shows plenty of ridging going on towards the end, and like stated before, a complete lack of the Atlantic... So all in all, its looking pretty good... 👍

 

 

 

ECM1-72 (1).gif

ECM0-240.gif

ECM1-240.gif

Edited by Mattwolves

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As per the operational, tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean becomes more ridgy again later.👍

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

The ecm 5-10 anomaly this evening pretty much as expected which in reality boils down to the UK just about being under the umbrella,  and thus in the northern quadrant, of the low pressure to the south. Ego an easterly component to the wind and sunny intervals and showers with temps probably a tad above average

ecmwf_z500aMean_nhem_6.thumb.png.cac7604a03d706b5320326b4e5b01c2e.pngt192.thumb.png.8e263b21eb7ad0a1d6ce747dbc995a55.pngecmwf-europe_wide-t2m_c_anom_5day-8526400.thumb.png.03688edaf7d3090ea00c33b4b3f21ead.png

This evening's EPS mean anomaly for the period is not a million miles away from this with the high pressure migrating west to Greenland and the Canadian vortex/trough still playing an important role in the north west Atlantic Thus the strong upper flow diverging in mid Atlantic leaving the UK in a col

But in the ext period the pattern loses a lot of amplitude and although there are still positive anomalies over Greenland/Iceland with a ridge, the flow across the Atlantic is more zonal, albeit quite weak. This wouldn't portend anything drastic weather wise and temps still just above average.

5-10.thumb.png.a3f63c14dcecd712545aaa9fab1f768a.png9-14.thumb.png.ad4e0d5ef28d75d298c8ed0708fbfad6.pngindex.thumb.png.7f8134ef987cce80d972caa981c470d0.png

 

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nothing desperately bad with the output, the south more favoured for rain and there could a slice of the county which could unlucky with any bands of rain slowly moving north. Temperatures like rainfall will be okay except under the rain where it will feel chilly.

week 2 - tentative signs that the Azores high could ridge north east enough to cut off the southern arm of the jet which would allow the euro low to fill and sink towards Italy which would allow warmer and drier weather to develop.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

An improving end to the Gem 12z too with the azores high / ridge having something to say!!..but why am I even talking about day 10 when days 1,2,3 and potentially 4 are looking so damn good under high pressure with tons of sunshine to come!!👍🌞

gem-0-240.png

gem-1-240.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

An improving end to the Gem 12z too with the azores high / ridge having something to say!!..but why am I even talking about day 10 when days 1,2,3 and potentially 4 are looking so damn good under high pressure with tons of sunshine to come!!👍🌞

gem-0-240.png

gem-1-240.png

Indeed Karl: the outlook just keep getting better and better!:yahoo:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 hours ago, knocker said:

It might be an idea to hang fire until after the fax update later this evening, may get an idea where any fronts are, and then the midnight outputs. But still your best bet remains keeping an eye on the METO updates

Thanks. Still very confusing, GFS V3 has now postponed the front moving in from the west until Saturday, leaving Friday completely dry. Standard GFS still showing rain for most of the day. ICON completely dry even into the next weekend. Ukmo looks reasonably dry too with high pressure pressing down from the north... ecmwf 12 looking wet still...Who's going to win? And it's only 100h away too. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Outlook - As the week progresses the subtropical ridge comes under increasing pressure from the energy flows from the NW and E resulting in the surface high cell migrating north east and low pressure being established over France. This subsequently moves north and an unstable aitmass becomes established over the UK by the weekend.

energy.thumb.png.d7376262d666b79da84a907614945efe.png

The NH 500mb profile and North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight.

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7705600.thumb.png.aea87c0126060e952530582205ba2438.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.7f42402f52d38d0425f3ab28dce7e7ed.gif

After a chilly start a sunny and warm day for all in the light winds. Just a tad breezier in the south east and along the south coast so temps may be down a smidgen

PPVE89.thumb.gif.fdddae6648f3a66cbe5096b33ce63c4f.gif1830515213_streammon.thumb.png.b6966493a61c4adb34ebb4a275d33cef.png2144292338_maxmon.thumb.png.e44611acef3d1b3bcb7c80759ff5bd3b.png

A clear night to follow with the odd mist /fog patch by dawn

PPVG89.thumb.gif.d66dcf33f08181ee8ae5393d4652a6e1.gif

After a chilly start Tuesday will be another warm and sunny day in the light airs but still a fresh breeze in coastal areas in the SW/S so again the temps may be down a smidgen

PPVI89.thumb.gif.04204a3accfc813ef060ed9cdee07ec2.gif543269151_streamtuws.thumb.png.b380399b7852c4d045f3015781e1e6e7.png1760621435_maxtues.thumb.png.d8fc42131de2c5fbeddfbbe3fa779334.png

Over Tuesday night and through Wednesday the migration mentioned earlier is underway but still another sunny and warm day with a fresh breeze in the south

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-7921600.thumb.png.94e0347ca0ddd0231ac89e7310b469aa.pngPPVJ89.thumb.gif.c1782b3cbabe8e1704082c39698ee255.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.e2907b4c17a5194a760c3d5065363fac.gif

306648721_maxwed.thumb.png.1b283a85580369faa8628a6babe33e06.png

By midday Thursday the high cell is centred just west of Norway and the easterly wind has freshened somewhat south of the border so temps down a tad, particularly along eastern coastal regions. Still another sunny day but perhaps more cloud over England

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8018800.thumb.png.b6636c240421e75d22b35bf5bc3bb5ac.pngPPVM89.thumb.gif.5ce7d4ad49e9c029632a292918ee5d81.gif352368925_maxthu.thumb.png.7a3622597c2ce4fc44bf38c547f6eb7b.png

By Friday the low pressure to the south is more organized and has pushed north over the UK resulting in a strong easterly wind across the northern half of the country. There is also an upper warm front in the flow and a surface front tracking in from the North Sea  so showers and perhaps longer periods of rain in southern and eastern regions where it will also be much cooler

gfs-natl_wide-vort500_z500-8105200.thumb.png.f5ce820559271bb7f7c7878481844caa.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.d131617c4a6dd55ada9ae6d6fa45d5a0.gif1609781716_maxfr.thumb.png.20299f5716f79248fda6ef032598937a.png

 

Edited by knocker

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The NH 500mb profile at t144 is quite familiar and instability will remain the order of the day over the weekend with sunshine and showers

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8224000.thumb.png.98003b20f9a23251386bab30b1c34a8e.png297577891_indexi.thumb.png.c3fa0daa56c5e07600fe05aaa6d54542.png1712555589_index2.thumb.png.ed334bdea29102613c348559adea7eaf.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The ecm a tad slower pushing the low pressure north on Friday

t108.thumb.png.8987dedcbbbe8299ae80da11c2b37f4c.pngt132.thumb.png.cdcadddd0126f933d5e44186509d8d4d.pngt156.thumb.png.ce2553fc896d8b00a77d5fb60b5d2638.png

index.thumb.png.f59da47fec12b5dbc94371925bff38a7.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The GFS Op is clearly an outlier, for a few days anyway, according to the 00Z GEFS ensembles::search:

image.thumb.png.47ec5cb502dbacf9cae8026aa5df25dc.pngimage.thumb.png.5d839507f5ccf5768589e6900b7af29f.png 🤓

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

EC day 10 shows why i made the right call not to go to southern  spain next week!!

image.thumb.png.609606545debf18ecf683b05e9fe12c8.png

Edited by northwestsnow

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Decent end to the Ecm 00z op / mean with ridging and warmer temperatures returning following the slightly cooler unsettled blip towards the end of this week..in the meantime, glorious weather for most of this week!👍🌞

ECM1-240.gif

EDM1-240.GIF

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Looking at the mid / longer term GEFS 00z mean, nothing wrong with the temperatures, it could be rather warm, especially further south and humid at times. There's plenty of fine weather associated with ridging but also a chance of heavy showers or even thunderstorms from time to time!👍

GFSAVGEU00_186_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_234_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_258_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_282_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_282_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_306_1.png

GFSAVGEU00_330_2.png

GFSAVGEU00_378_2.png

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

A glorious few days ahead, could be seeing 24-25c in a few places come Wednesday, more especially NE areas! Some showery rain possible by end of the week, and perhaps some thundery potential towards the SE come the weekend with warmer uppers encroaching! Perhaps becoming more settled again next week, all in all not bad.. 👍

gfs-0-138.png

gfs-1-138.png

Edited by Mattwolves

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Would be interesting if we had an azores scandy high link up! Not out of the question. 

ECM1-216 (1).gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Looking at the ukmo 0h..short term..glorious high pressure and unbroken sunshine!..wednesday will be the warmest day this week and the ridge holding until later this week but it gradually turns more unsettled and a bit cooler from the east across southern uk for friday and the weekend but it starts to warm up again through the weekend, especially in any sunshine. 

UW24-21.gif

UW48-21.gif

UW48-7.gif

UW72-21.gif

UW96-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

GFS is looking good: warmer with some rain, for the weekend.:oldgood:

image.thumb.png.3014f1c764df75f8d1b0b090cc5eeabb.pngimage.thumb.png.8339edf34be3ea46dd60b32ea1897a3a.png Shades of 2019?🤪

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Studying the EC clusters this morning, we begin at D10 with that quite obvious positive anomaly to the NW and slightly negative anomaly over Europe, but then as we go through D11-D15 we tend to lose the negative anomalies over Europe except in minor clusters. This suggests not only a fairly quite Atlantic but an eventual resurgence in temperatures over European mainland, which, without deep Atlantic lows in the picture, may influence the UK too. Certainly I would favour an above average over a below average end to the month, without being particularly hot.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051300_240.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051300_300.  ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019051300_360.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Oh, darn it! Summer's officially over!:gathering:

image.thumb.png.4ea63c9c9fe6b64f595ab48ba53be405.pngimage.thumb.png.f18298604b21bf97192a1576993f6192.png 

Doesn't end too great, either...just as well it's still Spring, then?:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.30f052399231de650103ecaeb7920986.pngimage.thumb.png.e51257d3dc011014d458cd513c521cb1.png

Edited by Ed Stone

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
23 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh, darn it! Summer's officially over!:gathering:

image.thumb.png.4ea63c9c9fe6b64f595ab48ba53be405.pngimage.thumb.png.f18298604b21bf97192a1576993f6192.png 

Doesn't end too great, either...just as well it's still Spring, then?:oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.30f052399231de650103ecaeb7920986.pngimage.thumb.png.e51257d3dc011014d458cd513c521cb1.png

Just has well its the fantasy island FV3 Pete! 😂

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Just has well its the fantasy island FV3 Pete! 😂

Too much green snot for my liking on the longer term 6z operational / 6z FV3.😁💩

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Too much green snot for my liking on the longer term 6z operational / 6z FV3.😁💩

Thing is Karl this model shows literally the same outcome 12 months of the year. If the FV3 was to be believed, the UK would be considered an Arctic state... 😉👍

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...