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Posted (edited)

Looking at the Ecm 00z ensemble mean the unsettled and cooler easterly towards the end of the week doesn't last long, signs it will become less unsettled and warmer from a warming continent..perhaps the azores high / ridge will have something to say too, as well as the heights to the north!!!.👍

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Edited by Frosty.

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So another spiffing 06Z run comes to an end: the antithesis of 2007?

image.thumb.png.550210316ed1ee752714bea9d55c2cb3.pngimage.thumb.png.116aff4b17f1fe64f9177476dcb73531.png :oldgood:

And, now it's off to buy some liquid refreshment, in time for our inevitably glorious footy-season finale!:yahoo:

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48 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

perhaps the azores high / ridge will have something to say!!!.👍

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

Well looking at the det run the azores high has plenty to say at the end!!!👍

ECM1-240.gif

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Yes it's FI but this looks interesting from the Cfs!!👍😁

cfs-0-6072.png

cfs-2-6072.png

cfs-2-6114.png

cfs-0-6114.png

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Blimey! The FV3 even has something for The Friends!

image.thumb.png.02416ae2f9b1ca4c7ffaa38d62b7f8c3.pngimage.thumb.png.3e050a53ab1db9da51c0e58b9b5739ab.png :shok:

The GFS operational agrees...I hope those aren't snow spikes!🤪

image.thumb.png.9828c2c950f001d6700f3be6c559360a.pngimage.thumb.png.8a327d3c407ec1981976563ce776939d.png 

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The longer term GEFS 6z mean is nae bad at all!👍

GFSAVGEU06_228_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_252_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_324_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_324_2.png

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Excuse me folks if my post is a little out of sorts, has I'm typing in the glorious sunshine while I tan 😂 the 6z to me looks not bad, we have heights just in the right place for some warming to occur by next weekend, early the following week... Yet again I see no signs of an onslaught from the Atlantic, I think bit by bit we are heading in the right direction, on the other hand I could be sun blind! Enjoy the rest of your day folks if you have the glorious condition! And remember stay sun smart, and no I'm not on commission from nivea!!! It's all good... 

gfs-1-168.png

gfs-1-192.png

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-192.png

giphy-1.gif

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Apropos nothing at all really but quite interesting that the temperature at midday at Koynas, Arkhangelsk Oblast at 64.8 °N, just south of the Arctic circle in NW Russia, was 31C !!

gfs-nhemi-t2m_c_anom_1day-7727200.thumb.png.b49cc2a2597829eaab7a39287683dc8e.pnggfs-nhemi-z500_anom-7651600.thumb.png.21b3737cc1b8229d2c5f9f792c23c26e.png

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ICON 12z ends  with a no-mans land solution, here T180:

image.thumb.jpg.1a83001fa16e3211bd37ee7586cde4d9.jpg

But if the trend here is for the high to the NE to link with the Azores high, rather than retrogression to Greenland, then a steady transition to summer would unfold, which most would welcome...

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Not for the first time this spring the models are mocking coldies with charts like these, diamond, golden or platinum charts in winter but in mid may..cack!!💩😁

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

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This disnae look too bad: warmer, humider, rainier?🤪

image.thumb.png.d6f93f5a25776359692571f48fa354f7.pngimage.thumb.png.381af206b87c1e8b98d9b84fcae522cc.png 

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12 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Not for the first time this spring the models are mocking coldies with charts like these, diamond, golden or platinum charts in winter but in mid may..cack!!💩😁

UW120-21.gif

UW144-21.gif

I dont think they are crap Karl, we could easy see an azores, scandy high link up here, we could also see a shift in the high to bring a more SEtly feed. The plus point for me is just where on earth did the Atlantic go! This is only going to serve us well further down the line. 👍

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Posted (edited)

I've already used diamond, golden and platinum in my last post but there is actually a silver lining to the ukmo 12h when you look at the increasing warmth in mainland western and eastern europe..if we continue getting these easterly winds they will gradually become warmer and warmer!!👍

UW144-7.gif

Edited by Frosty.

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Look at all this warm air to our NE/E.. not gonna take much adjustment to get it in... Come to poppa... Reel it in.. 

gfs-0-192 (1).png

gfs-1-192 (1).png

giphy-2.gif

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Well, one would imagine that the long wait for decent rain ought to come to and end, were this pattern to materialise:

image.thumb.png.aa1a7c7ed8a352ca4a5fc74b60430419.pngimage.thumb.png.374eaa4786e99da09857d63b295f2607.png 

In the mean time, grin and bear it: image.thumb.png.7f7feafcaf26f29f93c883368b33ee13.png

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I think towards the later frames of the 12z there is alot of heat building to our South! Sooner or later we are going to be tapping into it. Long way off but I've seen worse sypnotics. 

gfs-1-348.png

gfs-0-348.png

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Nowt much for The Friends on this run: slowly getting warmer, and warmer?

image.thumb.png.4f4a7252a78983a732e1b9fd0984daba.pngimage.thumb.png.4e63052be4203b074f1f025cc6a39905.png 

Time for reinforcements? image.thumb.png.a8311a33f1a7036b392d2ea9307e5533.png

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The expected general scenario for next weekend

gfs-nhemi-z500_anom-8224000.thumb.png.4fe80599e9eb4c8aaa5444c8048ae5e0.pnggfs-eur-t2m_c_anom_5day-8353600.thumb.png.89a85f34f5bbb197f122e8633dd14264.png

1935769911_index1.thumb.png.22be688f0a596c97d991c1b89c5f42a3.png927348477_index2.thumb.png.0c0709cbe20e952e36be2d12ffcf7dfb.png6412929_index3.thumb.png.80c9710025cb0fa41472a433f3075b3d.png

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In the short term there's a lot to like about the GEFS 12z mean with a strong anticyclone  over the uk bringing unbroken sunshine for many and warming up as a result.🌞👍

GFSAVGEU12_24_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_54_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_78_1.png

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Is it too early to cancel outdoor activities I had planned for Friday in Edinburgh? Most model outputs look really wet and have been all day. Just until yesterday it was supposed to stay dry

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Posted (edited)

Looking further ahead at the GEFS 12z mean, not easy to pin down detail but to me indicates a blocked / sluggish pattern with a largely benign atlantic and temperatures rising into the rather warm category and probably feeling humid at times with a mix of ridges bringing fine conditions and some unstable showery spells with thunder.

GFSAVGEU12_222_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_270_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_270_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_294_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_318_1.png

GFSAVGEU12_342_2.png

GFSAVGEU12_366_1.png

Edited by Frosty.

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Oh no...not that! Run along to Mummy?:gathering:

image.thumb.png.c563c0bb26c310115137773953b26bc9.pngimage.thumb.png.00c7d45c2d3728ab632c700d32452b33.png 

 

image.png.8c1bb44e0b347d675c400e2c7584c855.pngimage.png.1db239c1887bcc9e2a91d58c0c779e27.png 

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

Is it too early to cancel outdoor activities I had planned for Friday in Edinburgh? Most model outputs look really wet and have been all day. Just until yesterday it was supposed to stay dry

It might be an idea to hang fire until after the fax update later this evening, may get an idea where any fronts are, and then the midnight outputs. But still your best bet remains keeping an eye on the METO updates

Edited by knocker

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Haven't got much time to post today, but today's GFS 12z T240 looks like to me the wave pattern that will eventually deliver summer, here:

image.thumb.jpg.3df9d3b9caeaf093e2f576cece4f4eb8.jpg

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