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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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55 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Well at least the ECM bring some widespread sunshine from Sunday onwards. Not looking likely that it will be particularly warm, perhaps below average across the south and east in a chilly breeze. Temps 14-17c in South and East with 17-20 across North and West.

Again looking like northern blocking will take hold again after mid month, so an unsettled and cool spell again next weekend after a relatively sunny if not chilly spell for a few days next week.

Favoured areas will do rather better than that I think after Monday. Yes it will be cooler in the south but north of the Midlands I think we will see widespread temps above 20C from Tuesday to Thursday.

I wouldn't be surprised if some places make 25C on Wednesday.

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Extracts posted last week on closed thread:   The other part of the equation is the seasonal transition within the stratosphere from its winter default vortex position to its summer state. T

Greetings to you all! ? A glistening new thread for the month of May and early Summer! As we head deeper into Spring and into Summer (though I guess for some, May could be classed as a Summer

There are no apologies for self quoting a significant extract of the post the other day because its central focus becomes more primary to how NWP evolves in the remainder of this month and into the st

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks mostly very pleasant indeed beyond the current unsettled spell which is set to expire on saturday as high pressure builds northwards through the uk and intensifies centred over the uk..lots to look forward to, especially if you have a few days off next week!??

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The EPS anomalies are certainly not without interest this evening. By t198 the pattern is progressing along the lines hinted at by the det run and that is building up the trough to the east from Scandinavia all the way down to North Africa whilst to the west the subtropical high amplifies north east to phase with the UK ridge that is now a high cell north of the UK. This results in the Atlantic trough deconstructing and forming a cut off upper low to the south west of the UK

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So where is all of this going? According to the ext 9-14 anomaly, upstream a ridge into Greenland with the upper flow exiting the NE seaboard south of the trough to the south west of this, across the Atlantic to the trough now stretching away south to the south west of the UK. Thus the UK in a gentle south westerly upper flow towards the trough over northern Scandinavia. I'm not even going to attempt a surface analysis but very unlikely to be anything nasty in the woodshed with temps around average.

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A gradual change to something much more akin to late Spring with high pressure ridging through the UK over the weekend and building in situ, with the cold pool cut off by Sunday. However, there are no especially warm uppers to tap into, and the warmth will be of the 'homegrown' variety, indeed by mid May high pressure directly overhead usually delivers blue skies and rapid solar warming - temps can easily make the mid 20's - this often happens in sheltered western parts when there is a light easterly drift.

Next week in the main therefore set to be very different to this week, most notably in Scotland from mid-winter to mid-summer in feel. 

Southern and eastern parts may be plagued with cloud and temps here will be more suppressed, certainly no heatwave, just very pleasant late spring weather that we should expect in May in an average year.

Longer term - mmm signs heights will pull northwards quite quickly and with the threat of trough activity to the SW engaging with the trough to the east, meaning further cool unsettled weather again - indeed back to square one! - but also every chance heights might not retreat northwards so quickly and instead we maintain more settled warm weather overhead if we see a slower moving pattern develop.

 

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According to the gfs over the rest of the week the ridge migrates north west and a strong anticyclonic cell develops in the region of the Denmark Strait Whilst troughs develop Scandinavia south through central Europe and an upper low over France.

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Not to spend too much time on the detail of this without seeing the ecn and the ens but generally this puts the UK in a light easterly with temps a little below average

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Edited by knocker
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That GFS 00Z run must be some kind of joke- that is some flip from what was being shown last night. Very deflating waking up to that this morning. Basically the UK is like a magnet for the green snot throughout the run (850 hPa temps)- we still can't get rid of the stuff even towards the back end of next week as the high pressure gets squeezed northwards. 

Worst of all, another northerly sets up towards the end of the run (hopefully won't happen). A hugely disappointing run though and if it comes off we could be looking at a very cool May.

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6 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

That GFS 00Z run must be some kind of joke- that is some flip from what was being shown last night. Very deflating waking up to that this morning. Basically the UK is like a magnet for the green snot throughout the run (850 hPa temps)- we still can't get rid of the stuff even towards the back end of next week as the high pressure gets squeezed northwards. 

Worst of all, another northerly sets up towards the end of the run (hopefully won't happen). A hugely disappointing run though and if it comes off we could be looking at a very cool May.

it's horrid, cold winds 12-13 degrees most of next week, probably very little sun too, away from the NW

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ECM doesn't look great for the east again - we just can't seem to shake that nagging feed from the east. 850s at 6-8c in n/western areas, a disappointing 0-4c in the south and east. Probably pleasant enough inland, but coastal areas likely to suffer again.

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Next week the ecm is much along the same lines as last evening which essentially means that the emery flows from the NW and NE weaken the ridge and establish a high cell the north west of the UK  This initiates an easterly regime over the UK which, although dry and sunny in many regions, and quite warm in some, quite chilly in others with the possibility once again of low Stratus in eastern coastal regions.

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Edited by knocker
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1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

That GFS 00Z run must be some kind of joke- that is some flip from what was being shown last night. Very deflating waking up to that this morning. Basically the UK is like a magnet for the green snot throughout the run (850 hPa temps)- we still can't get rid of the stuff even towards the back end of next week as the high pressure gets squeezed northwards. 

Worst of all, another northerly sets up towards the end of the run (hopefully won't happen). A hugely disappointing run though and if it comes off we could be looking at a very cool May.

Morning, so what do you mean by a joke? Is it because it's not what you want to see? I mentioned a few days ago Northern Blocking with an undulating jet stream is the overall trend now and into the coming weeks and months. What we are seeing from the computer models is exactly how you would expect the outputs to be, computer models don't like blocking patterns ie, Default patterns they handle much better as the case of Atlantic driven weather. Looks like next week's weather will be fair at first for all then becoming unsettled from the south and temperatures much lower than forecast just a few days ago........

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20 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Morning, so what do you mean by a joke? Is it because it's not what you want to see? I mentioned a few days ago Northern Blocking with an undulating jet stream is the overall trend now and into the coming weeks and months. What we are seeing from the computer models is exactly how you would expect the outputs to be, computer models don't like blocking patterns ie, Default patterns they handle much better as the case of Atlantic driven weather. Looks like next week's weather will be fair at first for all then becoming unsettled from the south and temperatures much lower than forecast just a few days ago........

I think temperatures out West might be decent. The longer days and under clear skies may allow for decent temperatures, not scorching but very pleasant. 

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Popping here after a while. First the negative: It has been a very windy spring so far in central Europe with persisting northerly to north easterly winds around 8 m/s and also abnormally wet last few weeks. A far cry from last year. The positive: it looks like we are going to achieve first proper -NAO month after a long time,which I hope can make a return in winter months :) 

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I'm quite surprised to see a call being made for the entirety of summer based on some poorer overnight runs! It's not really professional is it! There is no heatwave in store just yet, but surely doesn't spell the end of summer before it's started. To me next week looks disappointing in NE/E areas due to a chilling wind from the NE, areas of cloud pegging temps back to low teens even. But for central and western areas I would imagine it would be quite respectable! Lengthy sunny spells at this time of year would push temps towards 20c no problems! But a word of caution, I wouldn't think for a minute that the current set up in May is any major indicator of the summer to come! Come June we could be in a completely different weather type.... Who knows.... ?

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Yes it's not all bad news for next week, certainly looks to be an improvement on this week, which is not hard of course. The latest GFS 06Z run is not as cool as the 00Z which was shocking and I imagine was a cold outlier.

Away from the east coast it shouldn't be too bad but it will continue cool overnight where the skies clear. Probably not a lot better than the mid to high teens though by day, which will nonetheless feel decent in the strong May sunshine.

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22 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I'm quite surprised to see a call being made for the entirety of summer based on some poorer overnight runs! It's not really professional is it! There is no heatwave in store just yet, but surely doesn't spell the end of summer before it's started. To me next week looks disappointing in NE/E areas due to a chilling wind from the NE, areas of cloud pegging temps back to low teens even. But for central and western areas I would imagine it would be quite respectable! Lengthy sunny spells at this time of year would push temps towards 20c no problems! But a word of caution, I wouldn't think for a minute that the current set up in May is any major indicator of the summer to come! Come June we could be in a completely different weather type.... Who knows.... ?

Indeed Matt: it wouldn't take too much cold-air dissipation for us to be open to warmth coming from the west, the south or the east?

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Tbh Pete the 6z is reluctant to move heights from Greenland, but this far from spells major doom, yes temps won't be great, but neither are we seeing an active Atlantic throwing weather system after weather system at us! Tbh there looks to be a fair amount of dry conditions around for some. But this is one month, yes it may end up cooler than normal, but I wouldnt say it was an indicator for the upcoming summer! Patterns change overnight as you will be aware. For me it would actually be worse if we was stuck in mobile Wstly, bringing persistent bands of rain and showers! I'm confident of a pattern change soon.... But I won't guarantee it, as I'm not that brave or foolish... ?

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2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Morning, so what do you mean by a joke? Is it because it's not what you want to see? I mentioned a few days ago Northern Blocking with an undulating jet stream is the overall trend now and into the coming weeks and months. What we are seeing from the computer models is exactly how you would expect the outputs to be, computer models don't like blocking patterns ie, Default patterns they handle much better as the case of Atlantic driven weather. Looks like next week's weather will be fair at first for all then becoming unsettled from the south and temperatures much lower than forecast just a few days ago.

Yes indeed. Its looking increasingly likely that next weeks drier spell will be shortlived. Met Eireann are saying it will be 'brief'. I'm expecting a major downgrade from Exeter in the next day or two. As expected. 

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