Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

20 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Blimey Karl did you draw them last 2 charts yourself! The 2nd one looks like it came from a cartoon

[Methuselah]

The 12Z doesn't end on a particularly inspiring note, I must say...

 

Worse, I have seen. 

[Singularity]

Based on the tropical events I’ve recently discussed, I think there’s a good chance the output for next weekend into the following week will be corrected in the same direction as this one into next week has been; the Atlantic trough not disrupting and sliding into Europe, with the blocking high held more E than W of the UK.

The 12z GFS seems as close as I’ve ever seen to an actually impossible run...!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Not overly impressed with the 12z output I must say, yes it starts OK, but also goes on to build heights over Greenland again making the U.k cold and unsettled.... I hope this is not going to be a recurrent theme!!! 

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The 12Z doesn't end on a particularly inspiring note, I must say...

 

Worse, I have seen. 

Yoda is a legend,, R.I.P Chewbacca and that last Gfs chart is sunshine and heavy, thundery showers.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

With the hot of the press 12z rolled out looks very spring like and pleasant next week under a strong ridge incoming.. Scotland looking like they could get the best warmth with temps into the low to mid 20s but looks less cooler the further South with temps in the high teens.. Very strange set up. 

 

Further ahead, NB taking hold once more leaving UK wet and once more under N'lies If next weeks warmth downgrades and we stick in these cold N'lies for longer then this could be the first May not to not reach 20C.

Edited May 8, 2019 by 38.5*C

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, 38.5*C said:

With the hot of the press 12z rolled out looks very spring like and pleasant next week under a strong ridge incoming.. Scotland looking like they could get the best warmth with temps into the low to mid 20s but looks less cooler the further South with temps in the high teens.. Very strange set up. 

Its actually pretty common for parts of scotland to get there warmest most settled conditions in May.. 

[Frosty.]

4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Its actually pretty common for parts of scotland to get there warmest most settled conditions in May.. 

Indeed Matt, Western / Northwestern Scotland

Edited May 8, 2019 by Frosty.

[Polar Maritime]

It looks like the N/E & could have the warmest temp by Tuesday.

[Frosty.]

On the face of it, these GEFS 12z mean charts for most of next week are painting a gorgeous picture for all parts of the uk.. I think we should really focus on the intensifying anticyclone centred over the uk early next week!!!

 

 

 

 

Edited May 8, 2019 by Frosty.

[Singularity]

GEFS mean Atlantic trough angle next Thu looks a lot more realistic than the GFS solution.

Sadly we can’t at all rule out a cool feed from the ENE even with the blocking high staying more east than west, but it does lower the odds of seeing slow-moving lows right over the UK.

[Frosty.]

Looking deeper into the GEFS 12z crystal ball, late May on the face of doesn't look bad at all, no sign of atlantic dross anyway!!

[Methuselah]

So much for the 0C isotherm staying up near Iceland...Truly lamentable performance from the FV3!

 

12Z operational has gone looloo: 

                                                       

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So much for the 0C isotherm staying up near Iceland...Truly lamentable performance from the FV3!

 

12Z operational has gone looloo: 

                                                       

I will retract what I said about it being a truly great model...until the 18z if I can stay awake that long!!

[knocker]

Just to reiterate a point made this morning

[Frosty.]

Looking at the Ecm 12z operational..sofa so good!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Nice ECM up to day 7...

[SizzlingHeat]

Well at least the ECM bring some widespread sunshine from Sunday onwards. Not looking likely that it will be particularly warm, perhaps below average across the south and east in a chilly breeze. Temps 14-17c in South and East with 17-20 across North and West.

Again looking like northern blocking will take hold again after mid month, so an unsettled and cool spell again next weekend after a relatively sunny if not chilly spell for a few days next week.

[Frosty.]

Still pretty good, a darn sight better than today anyway..in fact, a great run and a happy ending!!

Edited May 8, 2019 by Frosty.

[SizzlingHeat]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the Ecm 12z operational..sofa so good!

Those reds from Sunday through to Tuesday look fantastic at face value. Look at 850s and they are very disappointing. Recovering in the north and west then nationwide for Wednesday and Thursday. Looks to be relatively breezy in the south and east so probably quite chilly away from the west and north which would benefit from higher 850s and temps pushing 20c.

14-17 or 18c elsewhere. Chilly on southern and eastern coasts. 

Looks sunny and dry though which is better than rain! But no heatwave ! 

[northwestsnow]

Excellent ECM!

Better the further north and west you head for a change!

And ends nicely !

[MATTWOLVES 3]

13 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Well at least the ECM bring some widespread sunshine from Sunday onwards. Not looking likely that it will be particularly warm, perhaps below average across the south and east in a chilly breeze. Temps 14-17c in South and East with 17-20 across North and West.

Again looking like northern blocking will take hold again after mid month, so an unsettled and cool spell again next weekend after a relatively sunny if not chilly spell for a few days next week.

After next weekend! That's over 10 days away so it would be foolish to assume what is going to take over, especially if it is GFS showing that scenario. 

[SizzlingHeat]

1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

After next weekend! That's over 10 days away so it would be foolish to assume what is going to take over, especially if it is GFS showing that scenario. 

Absolutely! So hopefully time for the northern blocking signal to be replaced with low pressure!

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

Absolutely! So hopefully time for the northern blocking signal to be replaced with low pressure!

The blocking to the north is still a player longer term,we will need a good dose of luck for the meandering troughs not to find their way towards our shores IMO, clearly Exeter favor this scenario.That said, hopefully there will plenty of warm sunshine in the reliable timeframe to enjoy.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Like all have said, a much better outlook... The U.k gonna be sunny for a change, long may it continue. It looks like my recent send the rain away dance has finally payed off..