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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Extracts posted last week on closed thread:   The other part of the equation is the seasonal transition within the stratosphere from its winter default vortex position to its summer state. T

Greetings to you all! ? A glistening new thread for the month of May and early Summer! As we head deeper into Spring and into Summer (though I guess for some, May could be classed as a Summer

There are no apologies for self quoting a significant extract of the post the other day because its central focus becomes more primary to how NWP evolves in the remainder of this month and into the st

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3 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

That depends how you look at it NWS. it states very low confidence, yes it states periods of unsettled conditions, but it also states very warm spells in the settled conditions. And not to forget at this range, perhaps we should take it with a huge dose of salt, especially after the failed winter attempts!! 

Mmmm? Very warm with rain in the South? Sounds rather spiffing, to me. Especially given the fact that we only had ONE measly thunder-day last year...What's more, EA has a notable groundwater deficit...:oldgrin:

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I think it's looking pretty rosey folks, plenty of settled Conditions, temps nudging or exceeding 20c..and by day 8, perhaps a reload from the SW... looks pretty high pressure orientated at this stage... So far so good.. No excitement from me tonight though.. Gerrin a bit to old for it... 

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Well, if the 12Z is anything to go bay, once this week is done with, we'll quite likely have a good two-weeks' dry and warm weather...So, another month-of-two-halves might happen!

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The 06Z ensembles do have a wee wobble though - the op shows string of sub-10C maxes, but very little rain!:shok: Stick with the control run??

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Looking at the GEFS 12z mean..  STONKER ALERT!!!..  From Sunday and most of next week looks beautiful under high pressure and beyond that there are signs we will pick up a warm and increasingly humid continental flow with sunshine and an increasing chance of heavy showers / thunderstorms breaking out and also being imported from france!!?

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Edited by Frosty.
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An early update on the Ecm 12z..so far so good with high pressure building northwards during the weekend and intensifying over the uk..the cooler uppers being mixed out and warming through by early next week.

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Edited by Frosty.
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8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

An early update on the Ecm 12z..so far so good with high pressure building northwards during the weekend and intensifying over the uk..the cooler uppers being mixed out and warming through by early next week.

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About time too Frosty, after a miserable 7 months

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T+240..errr..peachy for most!!..much better longer term than the 00z with the warmth holding on for the majority!?

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Edited by Frosty.
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Excellent ECM...

PLENTY of May warmth to enjoy for many .. ?

HP dominating day 5 onwards, im still a tad concerned about the destination of troughing later on but looking forward to the sunshine .

Edited by northwestsnow
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ECM looks good at face value, but 850s are a bit rubbish until at least Tuesday when they finally get into positive territory so I feel that Sunday to Tuesday temps would be in the mid teens, possibly up to high teens to 21-22c towards midweek but then the warmest conditions being in the north west with south and east being back to mid perhaps upper teens. 

What I don't like is the high is shown to build northwest again for the second run in a row, bring lower heights towards the south. Would rather pressure showing lower across Greenland at day 10. Could lead to a more unsettled spell post day 10. Let's see what Ens show this evening.

Edited by SizzlingHeat
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11 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

ECM looks good at face value, but 850s are a bit rubbish until at least Tuesday when they finally get into positive territory so I feel that Sunday to Tuesday temps would be in the mid teens, possibly up to high teens to 21-22c towards midweek but then the warmest conditions being in the north west with south and east being back to mid perhaps upper teens. 

What I don't like is the high is shown to build northwest again for the second run in a row, bring lower heights towards the south. Would rather pressure showing lower across Greenland at day 10. Could lead to a more unsettled spell post day 10. Let's see what Ens show this evening.

BBC RAW has 17-20 degrees from sunday onwards in manchester. with very light winds, should be lovely..

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10 minutes ago, SizzlingHeat said:

ECM looks good at face value, but 850s are a bit rubbish until at least Tuesday when they finally get into positive territory so I feel that Sunday to Tuesday temps would be in the mid teens, possibly up to high teens to 21-22c towards midweek but then the warmest conditions being in the north west with south and east being back to mid perhaps upper teens. 

What I don't like is the high is shown to build northwest again for the second run in a row, bring lower heights towards the south. Would rather pressure showing lower across Greenland at day 10. Could lead to a more unsettled spell post day 10. Let's see what Ens show this evening.

If you didn't like the operational you won't like how the mean ends up but to me it looks like a very pleasant late spring spell from sunday onwards.?

 

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A look at the ens show the operational to be on the warmer side of things with a slight decline to cooler conditions later, either way this ain't to bad... Baring in mind with long sunny spell, temps will respond nicely given the time of year.... 

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Just now, Mattwolves said:

A look at the ens show the operational to be on the warmer side of things with a slight decline to cooler conditions later, either way this ain't to bad... Baring in mind with long sunny spell, temps will respond nicely given the time of year.... 

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Yes an important point- sun in mid late May is strong, longest day is in June i think.

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

If you didn't like the operational you won't like how the mean ends up but to me it looks like a very pleasant late spring spell from sunday onwards.?

We've been so spoiled so far this year, it's incredible...Back 'when arrhh were a lud', the occasional 20C day, in May, was something of a bonus. These days, we've almost come to expect it!:oldgood:

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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

If you didn't like the operational you won't like how the mean ends up but to me it looks like a very pleasant late spring spell from sunday onwards.?

 

It will be nice to see the sun again, however it's concerning to show northern blocking trying to re-establish itself again later on. Would much prefer it if low pressure would replace the HLB as that could become very dodgy later on towards the end of May.

But 15-20c nationwide for 3 or 4 days would be pleasant enough for the time being.

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