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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    So, the GFS at T+384 (the overall pattern is what matters, not the details?) has the last(?) of the PV remnants pinned near the Arctic, allowing warmer continental air to exert a greater influence:

    image.thumb.png.26c6c7be4985f765b4a695133ea1ff8e.pngimage.thumb.png.725e133826a70fc84ff6284f87aeeff7.png 

    The FV3 appears to reach a similar (if less convincing) position; so, once this week's cack has finally become an unwanted memory, things ought to start looking up, more generally...?


    image.thumb.png.ac7e0fa7855c34f30fc08178a473ba59.pngimage.thumb.png.46377ecf462a3d8b4aa2f767ed0e0c59.png

    The ensembles paint their usual confused picture, with little indication of any major warm-up and a wee drop of rain:

    image.thumb.png.8beb49a6cb8305b3957524307d079b22.pngimage.thumb.png.958bf8f0453d17d125f7dde1ef42c199.png :cc_confused:

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Much better ECM by the coming weekend and beyond, and much better temps. 

    ECM1-168.gif

    ECM1-192.gif

    ECM1-216.gif

    ECM0-192.gif

    ECM0-216.gif

    tenor-1.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Whoa the Ecm 00z ensemble mean sure is looking peachy from T+168 hours!?

    EDM1-168.GIF

    EDM1-192.GIF

    EDM1-216.GIF

    EDM0-216.GIF

    EDM1-240.GIF

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Whoa the Ecm 00z ensemble mean sure is looking peachy from T+168 hours!?

    EDM1-168.GIF

    EDM1-192.GIF

    EDM1-216.GIF

    EDM0-216.GIF

    EDM1-240.GIF

    Indeed Frosty; the GFS also looks good for next Monday -- my only caveat being that it look eerily similar for how this last weekend was supposed to evolve...?:shok:

    image.thumb.png.19d422122bb498206d29b4cfa4515f3c.pngimage.thumb.png.04a6c5a0c482f6bdc256ed48535e79b7.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Karl just nailed it with the above post.... ECM ensembles show the marked temperature increase... Much better ?

    graphe_ens3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Good to see that the 'cold air containment bulkhead' has sprung a leak down the western Atlantic - rather there than here!?

    image.thumb.png.c9873e6bcd5230805ad8f1e62da7e520.pngimage.thumb.png.78a01b3703749cb594bdb119a6860845.png 

     

    image.thumb.png.72e383025d7491fefe186f6beb92b6cf.pngimage.thumb.png.026bb8dbda174a723450c86f5392570f.png

                                    image.thumb.png.39b6d2e0691058d51e9de2e4f08b7d5b.png

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: thunder
  • Location: Ludlow, Shropshire

    Collective *sigh of relief* can be heard all around this morning.   Much better GFS 06z

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    Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
    24 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

    Collective *sigh of relief* can be heard all around this morning.   Much better GFS 06z

    Tentative steps in the right direction compared to a few days ago. The ECM mean is indicating temperatures should be back up to average,maybe above by day 9 and 10 once we cut off the northerly flow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, the FV3 does take a more circuitous route, in getting there...But we could find ourselves on the 'cusp of something special'. Again!?

    image.thumb.png.73cbebe72dd03c458763fdef5d6223f4.png image.thumb.png.b7ed5223f7867af2806638f785043c1e.png                                                                                image.thumb.png.4ec329318aeabab0480a3c74663e7432.png 

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    06Z GEFS ensembles:image.thumb.png.ec6c02a5469bcf76e3b0865e5a953f8f.pngimage.thumb.png.a2fbfaf4c1f09dcf9fdf9f3b21de5706.png

    Operational is now very much on the warm side of the pack; mean seems to have hardly changed?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    6z much better come the end of the weekend, and things improve next week. Beyond that, perhaps an extensive scandy high with winds coming from a warm SE continent! Things currently looking much more rosey folks! There ain't no limit to how good things could become... 

    gfs-0-168.png

    gfs-0-192.png

    gfs-1-360.png

    gfs-0-360.png

    All_these_people_saying_how_communism_doesnt_work_and_im__6148ad0560c062e1d1eb3b51e30477cb.gif

    Edited by Mattwolves
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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

    Whoa the Ecm 00z ensemble mean sure is looking peachy from T+168 hours!?

    EDM1-168.GIF

    EDM1-192.GIF

    EDM1-216.GIF

    EDM0-216.GIF

    EDM1-240.GIF

    At this time scale it needs to be very similar to the 12z Yesterday to give any grounds for it being close to what we may have.

    My old hobby horse of compare like with like down to about 144h.

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    The GEFS 6z mean really has lift off ???from around Sunday onwards, becoming warmer and anticyclonic nationwide  for quite a while!!?

    GFSAVGEU06_156_1.png

    GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png

    GFSAVGEU06_204_1.png

    GFSAVGEU06_204_2.png

    GFSAVGEU06_228_1.png

    GFSAVGEU06_252_1.png

    GFSAVGEU06_372_1.png

    GFSAVGEU06_372_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne

    This is the pattern from the closer North Atlantic viewpoint which is a bit elusive when it comes to a possible  surface analysis on lthis morning's and last nights Anomaly. Perhaps some elucidation this evening

    index.thumb.png.8d8db5d026b40b170f1afd0522c9f5e8.png

    Edited by knocker
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    UKMO also has a very clear signal for high pressure and a warm up at T144:

    image.thumb.jpg.446b868c540c344683a0b0df06bae7c4.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    It's coming. Summer is coming!:yahoo:

    image.thumb.png.bba65f87e587e77ea09435ee05abc670.pngimage.thumb.png.fd8ab45291a3a7ee599d0ca81bf32e9d.png images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTZSbyEV0LMlsV-apnvQCD

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL

    GFSOPEU12_195_2.png

    Yes please!

    Edited by TomW
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GEM 12z at same time, not quite the heat hit of GFS but all singing from the same hymn sheet tonight...

    image.thumb.jpg.77d7c833bc701096815c555def9fa5cb.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.548fb48e31bea5c19c19f824e5c2dfde.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    How hot can it get...in May?image.thumb.png.174c55df6b1fa0955fcdd4574970fb89.pngimage.thumb.png.cccbacef85d8afed6e33800a81f7c37d.png

    Drivers take care...tacky tarmac alert: image.thumb.png.9fa6248be9f1381fc477365d6038ed05.png

    Edited by Ed Stone
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Wow the place is buzzing all of a sudden... Amazing what some high pressure can do... 12z looking fine.... Me love it long time 

    gfs-0-192 (1).png

    gfs-1-204.png

    tenor.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish plumes, hot and sunny with thunderstorms
  • Location: Keyingham, East Yorkshire

    If this is to be the eventual outcome then it is some turnaround. Quite remarkable how we've gone from chilly northeasterlies to a plume in the space of 24-48 hours.

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