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So, the GFS at T+384 (the overall pattern is what matters, not the details?) has the last(?) of the PV remnants pinned near the Arctic, allowing warmer continental air to exert a greater influence:

image.thumb.png.26c6c7be4985f765b4a695133ea1ff8e.pngimage.thumb.png.725e133826a70fc84ff6284f87aeeff7.png 

The FV3 appears to reach a similar (if less convincing) position; so, once this week's cack has finally become an unwanted memory, things ought to start looking up, more generally...?


image.thumb.png.ac7e0fa7855c34f30fc08178a473ba59.pngimage.thumb.png.46377ecf462a3d8b4aa2f767ed0e0c59.png

The ensembles paint their usual confused picture, with little indication of any major warm-up and a wee drop of rain:

image.thumb.png.8beb49a6cb8305b3957524307d079b22.pngimage.thumb.png.958bf8f0453d17d125f7dde1ef42c199.png :cc_confused:

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Much better ECM by the coming weekend and beyond, and much better temps. 

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-192.gif

ECM1-216.gif

ECM0-192.gif

ECM0-216.gif

tenor-1.gif

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Whoa the Ecm 00z ensemble mean sure is looking peachy from T+168 hours!👍

EDM1-168.GIF

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM0-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Whoa the Ecm 00z ensemble mean sure is looking peachy from T+168 hours!👍

EDM1-168.GIF

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM0-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

Indeed Frosty; the GFS also looks good for next Monday -- my only caveat being that it look eerily similar for how this last weekend was supposed to evolve...?:shok:

image.thumb.png.19d422122bb498206d29b4cfa4515f3c.pngimage.thumb.png.04a6c5a0c482f6bdc256ed48535e79b7.png 

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Karl just nailed it with the above post.... ECM ensembles show the marked temperature increase... Much better 👍

graphe_ens3.png

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Posted (edited)

Good to see that the 'cold air containment bulkhead' has sprung a leak down the western Atlantic - rather there than here!👍

image.thumb.png.c9873e6bcd5230805ad8f1e62da7e520.pngimage.thumb.png.78a01b3703749cb594bdb119a6860845.png 

 

image.thumb.png.72e383025d7491fefe186f6beb92b6cf.pngimage.thumb.png.026bb8dbda174a723450c86f5392570f.png

                                image.thumb.png.39b6d2e0691058d51e9de2e4f08b7d5b.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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Collective *sigh of relief* can be heard all around this morning.   Much better GFS 06z

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24 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Collective *sigh of relief* can be heard all around this morning.   Much better GFS 06z

Tentative steps in the right direction compared to a few days ago. The ECM mean is indicating temperatures should be back up to average,maybe above by day 9 and 10 once we cut off the northerly flow.

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Well, the FV3 does take a more circuitous route, in getting there...But we could find ourselves on the 'cusp of something special'. Again!🤞

image.thumb.png.73cbebe72dd03c458763fdef5d6223f4.png image.thumb.png.b7ed5223f7867af2806638f785043c1e.png                                                                                image.thumb.png.4ec329318aeabab0480a3c74663e7432.png 

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06Z GEFS ensembles:image.thumb.png.ec6c02a5469bcf76e3b0865e5a953f8f.pngimage.thumb.png.a2fbfaf4c1f09dcf9fdf9f3b21de5706.png

Operational is now very much on the warm side of the pack; mean seems to have hardly changed?

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Posted (edited)

6z much better come the end of the weekend, and things improve next week. Beyond that, perhaps an extensive scandy high with winds coming from a warm SE continent! Things currently looking much more rosey folks! There ain't no limit to how good things could become... 

gfs-0-168.png

gfs-0-192.png

gfs-1-360.png

gfs-0-360.png

All_these_people_saying_how_communism_doesnt_work_and_im__6148ad0560c062e1d1eb3b51e30477cb.gif

Edited by Mattwolves

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2 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Whoa the Ecm 00z ensemble mean sure is looking peachy from T+168 hours!👍

EDM1-168.GIF

EDM1-192.GIF

EDM1-216.GIF

EDM0-216.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

At this time scale it needs to be very similar to the 12z Yesterday to give any grounds for it being close to what we may have.

My old hobby horse of compare like with like down to about 144h.

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The GEFS 6z mean really has lift off 🚀🚀🚀from around Sunday onwards, becoming warmer and anticyclonic nationwide  for quite a while!!👍

GFSAVGEU06_156_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_180_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_204_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_204_2.png

GFSAVGEU06_228_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_252_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_372_1.png

GFSAVGEU06_372_2.png

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Posted (edited)

This is the pattern from the closer North Atlantic viewpoint which is a bit elusive when it comes to a possible  surface analysis on lthis morning's and last nights Anomaly. Perhaps some elucidation this evening

index.thumb.png.8d8db5d026b40b170f1afd0522c9f5e8.png

Edited by knocker

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UKMO also has a very clear signal for high pressure and a warm up at T144:

image.thumb.jpg.446b868c540c344683a0b0df06bae7c4.jpg

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It's coming. Summer is coming!:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.bba65f87e587e77ea09435ee05abc670.pngimage.thumb.png.fd8ab45291a3a7ee599d0ca81bf32e9d.png images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTZSbyEV0LMlsV-apnvQCD

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Posted (edited)

GFSOPEU12_195_2.png

Yes please!

Edited by TomW

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GEM 12z at same time, not quite the heat hit of GFS but all singing from the same hymn sheet tonight...

image.thumb.jpg.77d7c833bc701096815c555def9fa5cb.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.548fb48e31bea5c19c19f824e5c2dfde.jpg

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Posted (edited)

How hot can it get...in May?image.thumb.png.174c55df6b1fa0955fcdd4574970fb89.pngimage.thumb.png.cccbacef85d8afed6e33800a81f7c37d.png

Drivers take care...tacky tarmac alert: image.thumb.png.9fa6248be9f1381fc477365d6038ed05.png

Edited by Ed Stone

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Wow the place is buzzing all of a sudden... Amazing what some high pressure can do... 12z looking fine.... Me love it long time 

gfs-0-192 (1).png

gfs-1-204.png

tenor.gif

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If this is to be the eventual outcome then it is some turnaround. Quite remarkable how we've gone from chilly northeasterlies to a plume in the space of 24-48 hours.

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