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3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

This is the problem when you get a 25c mini heatwave in April, the bar has suddenly been raised to high, and to early!! 

Agree patience is a virtue, something good too soon, tests patience thereafter. April 2007 and April 2011 brought very warm weather, followed by not especially inspiring May's, whereas 2013 for example brought a consistently chilly April-June period, the warmth arriving in July. 1995 was a very similiar type of event, the warmth arrived late June after lots of chilly weather, 1996 another good example a very cold May, followed by significant warmth into June.

The summer base state tends to bed in around summer solstice, right now we are firmly in high spring northern hemispheric state.

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Posted (edited)

Just a week to go folks, then at last some signs of an emerging improvement.. 

Still on the cool side but at least we have lost the deep low pressure over us.. Small changes and all that.... 

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Edited by Mattwolves

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The ecm has the UK under the umbrella of the upper trough Thursday > Saturday before the the trough dropping into the western Atlantic promotes amplification of the subtropical high on Sunday. Thus showery conditions initially, with some longer periods of rain as systems circulate with the circulation of the trough, before the ridge nudges in to settle things down. But the position of this is paramount as at the moment the Uk is on the cold side of it. Just But of course the detail is subject to change

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Ok Mr or Mrs Ecm..where are you hiding that heatwave you were showing a few days ago????!!!!!!!:diablo::girl_devil:

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17 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Ok Mr or Mrs Ecm..where are you hiding that heatwave you were showing a few days ago????!!!!!!!:diablo::girl_devil:

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I do hope that these current conditions and charts don’t herald a pattern for the next few months, however if the winter charts and final outcome are to go by they could be a good sign 🤔 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Ok Mr or Mrs Ecm..where are you hiding that heatwave you were showing a few days ago????!!!!!!!:diablo::girl_devil:

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Someone hid it in the plume cupboard!:shok:

Edited by Ed Stone

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Posted (edited)

Not a great ECM or GFS today, could be worse though, a little patience is gonna be required here.... Cfs operational is a blinder for settled conditions in June..... Don't worry folks... I've seen the future..... The future is bright... The future is orange.... Well mainly yellow... But it's heading in the right direction... 😉

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Edited by Mattwolves

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Trying to get a handle on the evolution in the ext period is tricky to say the least. In the the 5-1o period the mean EPS has the expected amplification over Europe with the trough dropping south but upstream the upper low that has dropped into the west Atlantic is a tad further north which appears to result in the ridging of the subtropical high becoming disconnected. Thus some ridging into Eastern Greenland and a very slack gradient over the UK Not a million miles away from the det run this evening. And the UK still in the cold air.

In the ext period the positive anomalies over Iceland/Greenland are retained as the Atlantic trough slowly fills and moves east replacing any ridging over the UK as Europe becomes less amplified  Still a very slack gradient over the UK with temps returning to near normal but the whole pattern is pretty inert with little energy swanning around.

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NOAA this evening is not quite on the same page in the ext period (agreeing on the slack gradient) but this could well be down to the time period

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On the face of it tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks very decent beyond the week ahead with high pressure and pleasant surface conditions although nights would probably still be chilly where skies clear...So, in a nutshell the next few days look reasonable but cool with cold nights, then midweek brings an atlantic low across southern uk with rain and stronger winds which is followed by a mixture of sunshine and showers some of which would be heavy and thundery and then the trough influence is replaced by high pressure.

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Thanks for the summary Karl... I will drink to that 👍

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Good Evening All! Pembrey Sands in SouthWest Wales recorded a low of minus 3c , quite remarkable as this location does not often get that cold in Winter🤣 The synoptics at present and forwarding to the next ten days ,Cold lovers would have loved these synoptics but far too late! I just wonder if the Sudden Stratopheric warming months ago has anything to do with this? Anyway Northern Blocking in situ , for at least 10 days, well below temps for May , some place getting well above average rain in the convective type weather .other areas virtually nothing...Summer 2019 has got Echoes of Summer 2012....😥🙄

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57 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Someone hid it in the plume cupboard!:shok:

I blame the ICON 12Z! It knew where the key was kept for the plume cupboard, but it decided to keep it a secret from the other models. However, I have kindly told the ICON to stop playing games and let the pub run know where that key is kept! 🔑

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25 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good Evening All! Pembrey Sands in SouthWest Wales recorded a low of minus 3c , quite remarkable as this location does not often get that cold in Winter🤣 The synoptics at present and forwarding to the next ten days ,Cold lovers would have loved these synoptics but far too late! I just wonder if the Sudden Stratopheric warming months ago has anything to do with this? Anyway Northern Blocking in situ , for at least 10 days, well below temps for May , some place getting well above average rain in the convective type weather .other areas virtually nothing...Summer 2019 has got Echoes of Summer 2012....😥🙄

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How you can make any kind of comparison to the wettest summer in 100 years beggars belief! 366.8mm of rain fell across the uk during the period upon til August 29. The April to June period was also the wettest recorded in the uk. I think its way premature to say there is a chance of a repeat of that summer! In fact I think we have more chance of a repeat of summer 95 than 2012!! One of these days I hope you will decide to bring us some good news! 😉👍

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Where did he state that.  He is saying what is been currently modelled.  Just because he not telling you what you want to hear there is no need to throw the toys out of your Oran is there I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad

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46 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Good Evening All! Pembrey Sands in SouthWest Wales recorded a low of minus 3c , quite remarkable as this location does not often get that cold in Winter🤣 The synoptics at present and forwarding to the next ten days ,Cold lovers would have loved these synoptics but far too late! I just wonder if the Sudden Stratopheric warming months ago has anything to do with this? Anyway Northern Blocking in situ , for at least 10 days, well below temps for May , some place getting well above average rain in the convective type weather .other areas virtually nothing...Summer 2019 has got Echoes of Summer 2012....😥🙄

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Agree outlook looking really not good at all,. As for summer 2019, The solar minimum summers are always known to bring poor summers.  1998 , 2008, 2019???

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, pacifist99 said:

Where did he state that.  He is saying what is been currently modelled.  Just because he not telling you what you want to hear there is no need to throw the toys out of your Oran is there I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad

No toys being thrown out of a pram here mate. It doesn't really matter what he says tbh, you can't make a long term conclusion over a couple of operational runs, and in fairness I'm paying attention to what the senior forecasters are saying for further down the line, not to mention some of the excellent and knowledgeable posters on here. If people want to write off a summer in May... Then good luck to them.. 

Some are saying the outlook is looking not good at all!!! We can only go out to day 10 with any kind of certainty, beyond that becomes very difficult, so it's May 5th today, or am I mistaken!!! So how does the current 10 day outlook change anything!!!! I'm sick of having to repeat myself now, this is getting like jive bunny.... What will be, will be.... 

Edited by Mattwolves

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29 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Agree outlook looking really not good at all,. As for summer 2019, The solar minimum summers are always known to bring poor summers.  1998 , 2008, 2019???

Even in so called poor summers there are still very warm / hot spells..just not as many as in so called good summer's!!😉

Anyway, signs of better weather beyond the week ahead and the next few days don't look bad either apart from being a bit chilly.

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

No toys being thrown out of a pram here mate. It doesn't really matter what he says tbh, you can't make a long term conclusion over a couple of operational runs, and in fairness I'm paying attention to what the senior forecasters are saying for further down the line, not to mention some of the excellent and knowledgeable posters on here. If people want to write off a summer in May... Then good luck to them.. 

Some are saying the outlook is looking not good at all!!! We can only go out to day 10 with any kind of certainty, beyond that becomes very difficult, so it's May 5th today, or am I mistaken!!! So how does the current 10 day outlook change anything!!!! I'm sick of having to repeat myself now, this is getting like jive bunny.... What will be, will be.... 

Writing off summer in May is just as silly as assuming its wall to wall sunshine from 1st June to 31st August. People seem to forget our summers are supposed to be 'poor' by default, Nobody knows how the summer 2019 will go so lets just chill out and pay attention to whats going on within 10 days and not the 4 months of what you dream/fear.

Edited by 38.5*C

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Has to be said but ECM and GFS don't really look good pattern wise, HP gets too far north opening the door to cold Northerlies then more action from trough and LP becoming stuck over the Uk for probably another 10 days.

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Posted (edited)

The NH 500mb profile and the Atlantic surface analysis for midnight

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The occlusion associated with the low over southern Norway will continue it's very slow progress south during the day and the band of cloud and showers will do likewise to be north west England > East Anglia by 1800, Dry and sunny south of this, perhaps the odd shower bubbling up, Further north over Scotland more frequent wintry showers, with some snow on the mountains. A generally cold day with temps a tad under average but not feeling unpleasant in the sunshine and light airs.

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The front more or less comes t a halt through the evening and overnight so many areas remaining cloudy, with perhaps just a few showers around, and any frost most likely in the clear periods in the north

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A not dissimilar story on Tuesday but there are far more showers around. Initially in the north  but then over wales and great swathes of England, with only the far south escaping which is where the better temps will be. But developments are afoot in the Atlantic with a quite intense low at 20W and a preliminary cold front bringing cloud and patchy rain into Cornwall by 1800

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Over Tuesday night and through Weds the complex area pf low pressure tracks east and the the associated fronts north east up the country bringing heavy rain and quite strong winds to most areas, And for a time some warmer air into the south which is a tad incidental.

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Over Thursday and Friday the upper low resides over the UK and on the surface there are myriad of features running around within the circulation of the large area of low pressure. This results in a very unsettled couple of days with some sunny intervals but plenty of Showers, with thunder and hail in the mix, and longer periods of rain. Temps still a little below average.But note the trough that has been discussed recently is just adjacent to Newfoundland.

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Edited by knocker

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Over the weekend the aforementioned trough tracks into the central Atlantic which promote amplification of the subtropical high just to the west of the UK  So on the surface the showery stuff will have died out by Sunday as the trough recedes east.

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But it takes a day or so for the warmer air to supplant the cold

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Looking a bit further ahead - for the U.K at 168 hours, both the 00Z ICON and GFS are composing a tune...

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The High Pressure symphony! 🎶

I think it does look quite possible High Pressure will build around, or near, the U.K area during that period. However, with this over a week away, it’s still possible the models may compose a different tune for the U.K, although High Pressure looks the favourite option generally.

While their could be a risk of the High drifting a little bit too far North and add extra power to the existing High Latitude Blocking, a transient (perhaps longer) spell of warmer weather could be possible as the High tries to build in from the South-West/South, especially for Western areas of the U.K. The warmer weather (which could be ’plumey’ 🔥) depending whether the High can sufficiently get far enough East to draw up warmer air on its Western flank through the U.K. 

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By midday Sunday the ecm has the ridge quite close to the UK with the surface high cell over the country. And by Tuesday it's still hanging in there despite pressure from the west. So quite a dry three days and getting progressively warmer with temps sneaking above average. But by the end of the run the pressure has told and fronts and rain arrive but this is of course subject to change

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