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Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!


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Extracts posted last week on closed thread:   The other part of the equation is the seasonal transition within the stratosphere from its winter default vortex position to its summer state. T

Greetings to you all! ? A glistening new thread for the month of May and early Summer! As we head deeper into Spring and into Summer (though I guess for some, May could be classed as a Summer

There are no apologies for self quoting a significant extract of the post the other day because its central focus becomes more primary to how NWP evolves in the remainder of this month and into the st

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I just took my TARDIS for a wee jaunt (two weeks' time out to be sufficient) and took some snaps of members' houses...One of them belongs to A252. Guess which one it is: Good luck!:oldgood:

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Much better than the Ecm 00z and actually that wasn't bad..this is going a similar way to last evening's stonking 12z and today's Gfs 12z with a stronger high pressure building from the south and then the main centre drifting slightly to the east enabling us to import warmer continental air.. I wanna see days 11 and 12!???

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Edited by Frosty.
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The ecm next Weds runs the low 987mb est across northern France so a showery and windy day but in particular south of the border, But another cold day with temps well below normal, particularly in Scotland. By Thursday the trough is well to the east with the UK in a light northerly and with sunny intervals and showers and another very cold day in the north. The next Atlantic low arrives west of Ireland on Friday with the associated front across the south west. Temps still below average

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ECM ensemble mean backs operational output strongly, the dry and sunny warm up around mid month looks to me to be more than the form horse....

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Ignoring the details, for a mean chart it clearly places the ridge and trough.  Would portend (!) a period of warm settled weather, I would suggest.  

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30 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking forward to the mean

 

Pretty good, better than the 00z..hopefully a return of summery weather following the unsettled period from next midweek to the weekend!!?

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Edited by Frosty.
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I'm taking a cautionary approach to things at present. The current colder spell upgraded within the reliable timeframe, compared to what was looking plausible a few days ago, the ridge has held further west and hence allowed a longer colder synoptic pattern this though does seem a result a result of the final warming of the strat and shift in position of PV, and is atypical for this time of year albeit rather later than usual..

The models are flip flopping alot at the moment beyond the 144hr timeframe, but hopefully will begin to settle in the days ahead - where the UK lies in terms of the downstream ridge set to arrive through mid-month remains to be seen.. it could sit directly overhead, to out south, to our east, to our north, or to our west - no clarity at present..

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A continuation of the showery mix on Friday and another day of temps below average, particularly in Scotland  A not dissimilar day on Saturday but the aforementioned Newfoundland trough has intensified  and dropped into the western Atlantic promoting amplification of the subtropical high just to the west of the UK. Thus by Sunday the trough is relegated to the east as a ridge moves into the UK, Temps still below average.

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Edited by knocker
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A tad disappointing outlook this morning. The ECM and Gfs ops showing the high once again ridging in too early maintaining a cool northerly flow. The one plus point is it would be a drier northerly than currently and in sheltered southern and western parts it may still feel warmish. Towards the end of the ECM winds veer more easterly as we import slightly warmer air. Wonder if some tweaks over the coming days could push things back in favour of a more UK centred high.

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45 minutes ago, Milhouse said:

A tad disappointing outlook this morning. The ECM and Gfs ops showing the high once again ridging in too early maintaining a cool northerly flow. The one plus point is it would be a drier northerly than currently and in sheltered southern and western parts it may still feel warmish. Towards the end of the ECM winds veer more easterly as we import slightly warmer air. Wonder if some tweaks over the coming days could push things back in favour of a more UK centred high.

just  looking at the fantasy world  models  cant see any big hot weather  coming looking rather cool and wet for late  may at the  moment

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

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While the change next week is to be welcomed im a bit concerned the models seem keen on promoting HP becoming established to our north again longer term, this will leave us again at the mercy of a southerly tracking jet.

 

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Back-end of the GFS still shows an overall improvement, as the Continent is warming all the while:

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The FV3 shows a similar evolution: 


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IMO, given that it's Spring, the warmer air is always going to be favoured, even if the day-to-day details are moot?

Ensembles:image.thumb.png.75036a6881af928cd7f445df63bda0a2.pngimage.thumb.png.c1d823d2ea355e4b99604db7235cf453.png

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Mid week looks like a shocker at present heavy rain, strong winds for some and maybe even some snow in Scotland

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Things can only get better ?

Some much needed rain there thankfully.

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All I'm currently seeing from ECM and GFS is a constantly changing forecast every day, a bit like the winter months really.... One day cold charts, the next..... Played down!! So I reckon CFS has nailed the pattern change by mid month...  Followed by some plumes in the final 3rd...

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Hardly bad, is it? image.thumb.png.bbb3aff2fe8ddca9ba77aea82c488894.png                                                                              image.thumb.png.84bc10d5af89d032599caa6b2e09d0d9.png

                            image.png.61f38f894ea056f0e34146ccde25076c.png:aggressive::oldgood:

And, here's how it ends:image.thumb.png.cbdd1f8b2911533b611a1815de5781b9.png

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                                      image.thumb.png.0575948d610a48338e15b400d5df7480.png

 

 

Edited by Ed Stone
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A little bit of patience required has grasshopper stated!!! ? But I feel things slowly moving in the right direction from the 6z,and some potentially really warm conditions beyond mid month... Its all good... 

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