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Paul Sherman

APR 30th Enhanced Risk - TX/OK/KS/MO/IL

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Biggest risk of the week coming up today. Surface analysis shows a cold front out west currently and an SW-NE Oriented stationery Boundary across Central Oklahoma with a Warm Front extending NE From the Front through C Missouri into Southern Illinois this is as at 9am (Uk Time)

Surface dewpoints south of the front are around 70f at the moment with warm south easterly winds, if the front reinforces and moves further North and West I can see an upgrade to Moderate Risk on the 13z or 16z Updates with an attendant 10% Hatched Risk for Tornadoes. If the cold front wins out and the front sags further east then the risk will transfer into the jungles of Eastern Oklahoma. The Warm Front also looks very nice and can see some Tornadoes in far NE Missouri and Southern Illinois today along the Warm Front.

There is also a seperate play in the Low Rolling Plains of discrete Dryline Supercells but these are far removed from Upper Support and should rapidly weaken with loss of Daylight.

HRRR paints a daunting picture for later with 2 bands of Discrete and Semi Discrete Supercells whereas NAM shows a more linear messy mode of embedded Supercells and more of a wind damage risk on broken S Bands and small bow echoes.

I know we are there from this weekend but if the tours were on Day 1 then we would be having a very early lunch in Ardmore around 12 Noon

Paul S

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This seems to be far from straight forward today. I know one thing, I'd probably end up in the wrong place for seeing a nado! 

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Yep the trees east of Tulsa look prime today but it’s dependent on the boundary retreat as if this gets a bit further North and east it could be the focus for a few strong tornadoes. 

Looks like a quieter spell coming up from Thursday for a few days until moisture starts returning early next week.

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Posted (edited)

Brad Arnold has a funnel cloud already, Beggs Oklahoma

Not in a good place, trying to get out of the path!

Just south of Broken Arrow

Edited by matty40s

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Thanks Paul - looking ripe there, as long as things don't line out too quickly! Who's following the live chasing ?

 

 

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4 minutes ago, samadamsuk said:

Do you have a link Matty ? Thanks

 

Cool - I've got him (livestormchasing.com)

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Posted (edited)

it didnt last long, he was lucky though, it ended up crossing the road in front of him and then the thing disappeared.

The skies look fantastic, currently on James Hilger

....who bottles it and changes his mind.....cant be more than 24 minutes from Tulsa...

Edited by matty40s

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Brad Arnold just showed a replay on his stream (luckily) - nice funnel, definite debree there! 

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pretty sure brad arnold is seeing another start forming.

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watching Brad Arnold currently - good clear stream, I think he's moving back into position. Srotm is at 40Kft, although doesn't look much at the surface on radar - 

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sensible, dont want to be in a rain wrapped nado situation!!

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3 minutes ago, matty40s said:

pretty sure brad arnold is seeing another start forming. 

Yep looks like it - 

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Strange that there's no severe TSTM warnings on this cell, but it's had atleast one confirmed tornado ...

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another one coming now, brad is doing quite well out of this!!

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4 minutes ago, matty40s said:

another one coming now, brad is doing quite well out of this!!

Wow he's pretty close to that if it drops one!

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I cant understand 81 people watching Brett Adair go for  pee

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5 minutes ago, matty40s said:

I cant understand 81 people watching Brett Adair go for  pee 

Nooo I missed it! Haha..

 

From what I can tell the front is stationary and will lift N, so game on! 

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Brad Arnold (apparently) has a TN, although cant see on his stream yet ..

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check out brandon copic out East!

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5 minutes ago, matty40s said:

check out brandon copic out East!

good call! - watching now 

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SPC have gone for a large Moderate area! - here's the amendment text ..

...Amendment Discussion... An upgrade to Moderate is being issued based on recent data from 20Z OUN sounding and a recent special NSSL sounding in southwest OK. These soundings show an uncapped environment with strong low-level hodographs (lengthened by 40 to 50 kt within the 850 mb layer). Resulting 0-1 km SRH values are around 300 m2/s2. This environment downstream of developing storms in SW OK and Far NW TX as well as the expected increase in the low-level jet later increases confidence in higher tornado probabilities. Numerous tornadic supercells across northwest OK, southwest MO, and northwest AR also warrant the upgrade.

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Currently watching Michael Craddock - he seems to be heading towards a good cell - 

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Amazing footage this

 

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8 minutes ago, Paul said:

Amazing footage this

 

Hate to ask, but is that not fake ?

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