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Summer 2019 - Moans, Ramps, Chat etc


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51 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

I don't think any super computer can ever predict the weather long term given the volatility of our climate in the UK. It's far easier to predict what will happen in Mediterranean climates like Spain, Portugal, Greece & California. Those places have hot sunny Summers virtually each year without fail. The UK climate is neither here nor there all year round. Been days last Winter when it was warmer than the June we're in right now. Who could have predicted that?

Buts that's the thing though, its not long term and all the signs models and background  signals failed to spot it  a couple of weeks  ago...

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The met office have said no overnight records were broken, but they did mention this interesting phenomenon, a "heat burst"  

Worth remembering: We broke the July record today by 1.4C. That's a big margin!! 

We were so close!

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1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

Not in Latvia. It was very much a case of minus 15 degree with heavy snow between December and February, and now they have the heat over here.

UK climate is very unpredictable and we will get another snowy winter period again.

Winters are absolutely getting warmer in Latvia too. It is no longer uncommon for there to be periods of bare ground in the winter in Riga, and Latvia in general is losing around 4 days of snow cover per decade. Older Latvians will tell you that winters are nowhere near as cold or snowy as they were in the past.

It’s doesn’t appear so obvious from our perspective because even a mild Latvian winter is cold by our standards but climate change is having a very big impact in northern and Eastern Europe. 

 

 

Edited by cheese
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31 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Buts that's the thing though, its not long term and all the signs models and background  signals failed to spot it  a couple of weeks  ago...

Have to say though that there was some fairly knowledgeable posters on here who were going for an unsettled start to Summer a while back but they got dismissed before it even happened - mostly because it wasn't what most in here want to see in Summer. I think last Summer skewed things a tad. I don't mind an unsettled Summer but I won't rain on anyone's parade *mind the pun*.

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Most if not all the winter months were a little above average, whats betting all of the summer months will be below average, the above average month will resume soon , October probably , the British weather, like our politics is a laughing stock  

Edited by IanR
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1 hour ago, cheese said:

Winters are absolutely getting warmer in Latvia too. It is no longer uncommon for there to be periods of bare ground in the winter in Riga, and Latvia in general is losing around 4 days of snow cover per decade. Older Latvians will tell you that winters are nowhere near as cold or snowy as they were in the past.

It’s doesn’t appear so obvious from our perspective because even a mild Latvian winter is cold by our standards but climate change is having a very big impact in northern and Eastern Europe. 

 

 

100% Cheese..

Very much like Poland, winters no where near as cold in recent years..

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

100% Cheese..

Very much like Poland, winters no where near as cold in recent years..

Sad times........

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It’s a pretty grim outlook once again, almost certain now this June will end closely associated with those in 2007/12, might not be quite as wet but probably will be colder than both. 

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10 hours ago, cheese said:

Winters are absolutely getting warmer in Latvia too. It is no longer uncommon for there to be periods of bare ground in the winter in Riga, and Latvia in general is losing around 4 days of snow cover per decade. Older Latvians will tell you that winters are nowhere near as cold or snowy as they were in the past.

It’s doesn’t appear so obvious from our perspective because even a mild Latvian winter is cold by our standards but climate change is having a very big impact in northern and Eastern Europe. 

 

 

I am aware of that lol. Latvian winters used to be minus 30-40, where as now it can be above 0 for a week or so at a time.

All I’m saying is, there’s still guaranteed snow every winter, despite the warmer climate.

Latvian winters have actually become milder since post 1981. I’m not sure if that’s a trend for the whole Eastern Europe region, but I didn’t think the warming was happening as far back at that. 

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9 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

100% Cheese..

Very much like Poland, winters no where near as cold in recent years..

Since what year do you reckon this started? It must have been the 1980s for Poland also.

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23 hours ago, damianslaw said:

The benchmark for a poor summer in recent times in 2012. That was a shocker, devoid of any heat, and just cloudy and thoroughly wet throughout, it came on the back of a very poor April and May as well.. The next benchmark is 2007 - another poor one. Summer 2019 has started on a note in the same vein to 2012, but I highly doubt it will end up anywhere near as bad as that year. There are signs things are about to take a turn for the better - nothing special in the immediate, plenty of time for summer proper come July. 

Summer 2013 started on a rather lacklustre note, but come July we endured the best conditions since summer 2006. June 1991 also a benchmark for probably the poorest summer month over the last 30 years, fortunes changed in July and the summer ended up being preety decent overall. 

Perhaps this summer will save its best weather for August.. something that hasn't happened for quite some time. Many summers of recent times have reserved the better conditions in the first half of the summer, last year was a case in point. Optimum time for heat and sunshine is probably mid July, still early enough to maximise sunshine levels, and with lots of summer still ahead it makes for a heady feeling.. come August that same feelings ebbs away I feel. A heatwave is June should be seen as a bonus, bit like a severe cold spell in December, generally warmest conditions occur in July and August, just as coldest weather usually happens in January and February.. we are always a bit impatient to bring seasonal goods as soon as the seasons change.. but there is always a lag effect from the season just gone - Dec, Mar, June and Sept can be very trying months in this respect for those wanting seasonal weather as the season they occur in:

March can often be cold and wintry, June, cool and unsettled, Sept warm and settled, Dec mild and very wet not snowy..

2012 was the summer of that nasty supercell storm system over the Ukraine. Similar to the 1981 storm, where day turned to night.

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4 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I am aware of that lol. Latvian winters used to be minus 30-40, where as now it can be above 0 for a week or so at a time.

All I’m saying is, there’s still guaranteed snow every winter, despite the warmer climate.

Latvian winters have actually become milder since post 1981. I’m not sure if that’s a trend for the whole Eastern Europe region, but I didn’t think the warming was happening as far back at that. 

I was in Riga for the Janis Night celebrations, back in 2009: what with the sun, the heat, the booze and the friendly people, it was one the best night's 'merryness' I've ever experienced. And the market produce was amazing!:oldgood:

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10 hours ago, cheese said:

Winters are absolutely getting warmer in Latvia too. It is no longer uncommon for there to be periods of bare ground in the winter in Riga, and Latvia in general is losing around 4 days of snow cover per decade. Older Latvians will tell you that winters are nowhere near as cold or snowy as they were in the past.

It’s doesn’t appear so obvious from our perspective because even a mild Latvian winter is cold by our standards but climate change is having a very big impact in northern and Eastern Europe. 

 

 

I think some Latvians will be glad of that, as the cold and grey conditions usually set in towards late September and never fully move on until late April. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I was in Riga for the Janis Night celebrations, back in 2009: what with the sun, the heat, the booze and the friendly people, it was one the best night's 'merryness' I've ever experienced. And the market produce was amazing!:oldgood:

Ahh 2009. The year when winter returned to the uk. At the time I was thinking the February snowfall was the best London and southern regions had since 1991.

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6 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I was in Riga for the Janis Night celebrations, back in 2009: what with the sun, the heat, the booze and the friendly people, it was one the best night's 'merryness' I've ever experienced. And the market produce was amazing!:oldgood:

We are in Latvia until Friday. This is the best time to be here with the longer evenings. Still light until almost midnight?

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21 hours ago, mb018538 said:

So after half of June, 2019 is currently the worst summer ever? Sounds about right!

No it’s “average” remember ? (according to all the summer haters anyways)

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Halfway through June and I've recorded an average max of 18.5C so far, skewed by the 1st and 2nd which were 25C and 27.1C.

Looking back at past Junes (my data goes to 2014), the number of days not reaching 20C ranges from 6 (2018) to 15 (2014 & 2015).

So far this June, 12 days haven't made it. I suspect it'll end up beating 15.

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This last week has been an absolute misery here in N Worcs. The last day which didn't have at least some bucketing rain was Monday, and since then it's been ranged from a total washout (Tuesday) to heavy showers (Saturday). As I type it's throwing it down again. The flood barriers are up here in Bewdley, and they're needed, with the River Severn lapping over the banks. It's actually a good job it was so low in the spring, otherwise we could be looking at more serious flooding. We've now had twice the average June rainfall in a fortnight.

I know it's only a week, but it seems much longer already. Every time we get a forecast that seems to predict a breathing space, it doesn't happen. Two days ago, Tuesday was forecast to be dry, bright and warm throughout. Now it isn't. I suppose the massive contrast with June 2018 makes the current weather seem worse than it actually is, and comparisons with 2007 or 2012 are over the top (for now!) -- but we've flipped here completely now. After earlier worries about drought, the gardens (and the local tourist trade) now need less rain for a bit! And so do I. ? 

Edited by Arctic Hare
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Well saw a few silly media outlets saying "heatwave" this coming week, but in reality the south gets 2 days of slightly above average conditions but a great fat stationary front will sit over central England meaning more low temps and cloud, before the jetstream moves south once again to its favorite spot just below the UK. YAY!

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1 hour ago, Weather-history said:


The Summer index is 10 x [(mean max of summer) +(total sunshine)/67 - (rain days/8)] 

 

Thanks. Where did that calculation come from? Is it something you created?

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Mother nature is a delicate animal, it seems like when one season is out of kilter, the others often struggle. Last years decent summer followed a proper winter so it shouldn't be a surprise we are struggling now after such a terrible(as in no cold or snow) winter just gone. Be interesting to know if this has happened a lot historically or just a coincidence.

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