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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards


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Caught some lovely structure last night. Just South of Hailsham, E Sussex, looking toward the coast.

This courtesy of one of my closest friend’s Dad in Eastbourne...crank the sound right up!! Amazing! 3EC4CEA2-31E0-4E40-B801-02CA5200BA65.MP4

In my storm watching spot for the night at Caterham view point on the southern edge of M25?

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a modicum on interest for my part of the world with a few cells that have popped up near the Channel Isles, intense rainfall with sporadic lightning.....I don't know if they're surface based or elevated in nature

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Drove down to Dover in the hope of seeing something but once there it was all heading northeast. Here for a couple of hours and hoping that as the sun sets there may be a chance to see the tops lighting up over the continent but hopes are low.

What a system though! Bodes well for summer if one or two of those could blow a little more westerly... we really were on a knife edge earlier with the track of these cells.

As a surprise bonus - found a fantastic pub near Deal - so here I will remain until the traffic clears on the M20 ?

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1 minute ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I see Belgium and the Netherlands gobbling up the whole lot of today’s storms. No change there then. This year isn’t turning out to be our year so far! 

Certainly the UK hasn't had big storms yet, hoping July will be the month for us the way June is shaping out but July tends to be where we get some good heat

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 05 Jun 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 06 Jun 2019

ISSUED 18:52 UTC Tue 04 Jun 2019

ISSUED BY: Chris

A broad upper trough will continue to persist to the west of the British Isles with a filling surface low over northern Scotland. 

An occluded front bringing cloud and outbreaks of showery rain across northwestern Britain and Ireland will breaks up allowing insolation in the afternoon and this will help to generate 200-300 J/kg of CAPE. This meagre instability combined with surface convergence and some orographic lift could generate a few heavy showers. Like the last few days, overall shear is weak (a little better in the northern Scotland area) and profiles remain very moist, so lightning seems only a very low risk at this stage. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-05

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Will head up to the cliffs to see what I can see shortly, but I think the cloud will make for tough viewing.

Was hoping the storms would track more slowly, or arrive later - distant storms during the day aren’t really much to write home about - but today it seems to just be one (of the many) times the UK gets cold-shouldered by the more exciting synoptic patterns that exist around the continent.

Let’s wait and see what chances come up over the next fortnight - seems like May didn’t deliver but June could bring us some humdingers yet!

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My concerns about yesterdays convective potential when looking at the satellite images were warranted. I thought it might be due to the warm nose at 650hPa being stronger than forecast but analysis from actual soundings suggest that upper level lapse rates were not as steep as forecast.Weather models are initialized with a mixture of sounding (actual) data and derived from satellite data (especially out to sea). It seems to me the satellite data analysis out over the Bay of Biscay estimated upper level temperatures to be lower than they actually were and underestimated moisture at certain levels.

Today's potential for convective activity is very limited. We have some potential in central Scotland, Southern Ireland and maybe the south west of England with an outflow dominant frontal band clipping the east coast later.

Thursday we have low pressure near northern Ireland with a potential trough swinging across from north wales across to Humberside. Here we need to bear in mind potential satellite imagery analysis bias , cloud cover again and low surface temperatures.It will need more assessment tomorrow especially since there is disagreement in the modelling.

Friday we have a developing low pressure system pushing up from the south in the Bay of Biscay bringing with it a lot of rain and potentially some embedded storms. It is also worth keeping an eye on any post cold front troughing, the wrapped occlusion and the triple point. The low pressure looks slightly tilted and modelling suggests a slight split at lower levels as it crosses the UK. We should bear in mind low level lapse rate steepness is poor and it is just the type of scenario models will struggle with so not worth looking into any detail yet.

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