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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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Couple of rumbles of thunder here in Durham. Not going out for a drive as it looks like it'll probably fall apart quickly! 

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Anyone else feeling particularly storm starved? The season looked to be off to a good start at the beginning of spring with some cb spotting days and a couple of rumbles but since then absolutely nothing for the past two months here. For the past four days theres been a potential threat of heavy showers/storms for my area and although I generally take storm threats with a pinch of salt we haven't had even so much as a drop, nada. Even when there has been partially active cb's floating around they've all passed either side of me (I've literally sat there and watched them split apart on radar). Initially I thought after a so so year last year the early signs were pointing towards a better 2019, but we're almost in june now and at the moment things round here are 2016 levels of bad. 😢

 

Sorry, don't mean to depress anyone, I'm just venting a bit out loud I guess. I just hope things pick up soon. This area used to be amazing for storms ten or twenty years ago. Now I'm pretty sure it's the most storm starved place in the country. I'm not sure what's happened? 😮

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Dry as a bone down in Portsmouth. Very muggy tonight. Was hoping something would kick off, but calm as anything

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6 hours ago, matt111 said:

Signs of convection to the east of here. First time in quite a while I’ve seen skies like this here. 

129FB1CA-28C9-416F-AF00-CE57BAC20595.jpeg

Having looked back at the radar it looks like this didn't even produce any rain at all let alone any lightning. Probably sums up our luck. 

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Isolated cell over Lincolnshire, looked great from here with the sun shining on the top in the distance 

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3 hours ago, Windblade said:

Anyone else feeling particularly storm starved? The season looked to be off to a good start at the beginning of spring with some cb spotting days and a couple of rumbles but since then absolutely nothing for the past two months here. For the past four days theres been a potential threat of heavy showers/storms for my area and although I generally take storm threats with a pinch of salt we haven't had even so much as a drop, nada. Even when there has been partially active cb's floating around they've all passed either side of me (I've literally sat there and watched them split apart on radar). Initially I thought after a so so year last year the early signs were pointing towards a better 2019, but we're almost in june now and at the moment things round here are 2016 levels of bad. 😢

 

Sorry, don't mean to depress anyone, I'm just venting a bit out loud I guess. I just hope things pick up soon. This area used to be amazing for storms ten or twenty years ago. Now I'm pretty sure it's the most storm starved place in the country. I'm not sure what's happened? 😮

I suppose I am, too; I've only had one, very distant rumble...

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 21 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Wed 22 May 2019

ISSUED 20:37 UTC Mon 20 May 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Upper low to the west of Scotland will gradually drift southeastwards across Scotland during Tuesday. The resultant cool air aloft will steepen mid-level lapse rates, which combined with diurnal heating should yield 300-500 J/kg CAPE.

A cloudy start with outbreaks of rain over the area should break up as convective-overturning takes place, with scattered showers developing by the afternoon, persisting well into the evening / overnight as the upper low moves slowly across the area. Flow is a little weak, but there is some speed and directional shear. As such, a few sporadic lightning strikes will be possible - particularly over Sterlingshire, Perthshire and Fife, and environs. Confidence is not high enough to warrant a SLGT at this stage.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-05-21

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20 hours ago, LightningLover said:

I suppose I am, too; I've only had one, very distant rumble...

I feel your pain friend.😢 I think the thing with storms (particularly in this country) is that they're so difficult to predict, although there has definitely been a steady decline in both storms and rain around here these past 10 years.

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Is anybody else just absolutely praying for a hot and humid summer? 

I enjoyed last summer, but id much prefer a "three fine days and a thunderstorm" sort of summer, with plumes' a plenty! 

 

 

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1 hour ago, ChezWeather said:

Is anybody else just absolutely praying for a hot and humid summer? 

I enjoyed last summer, but id much prefer a "three fine days and a thunderstorm" sort of summer, with plumes' a plenty! 

 

 

Absolutely dying for some proper storms yes. 

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The one decent storm I did see last year on 21st April. The first time I used my new lightning detector which I've hardly used since. 

Did get another light show almost a year ago on 26th May too but haven't seen anything since.

 

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Posted (edited)
On 20/05/2019 at 20:25, Windblade said:

Anyone else feeling particularly storm starved? The season looked to be off to a good start at the beginning of spring with some cb spotting days and a couple of rumbles but since then absolutely nothing for the past two months here. For the past four days theres been a potential threat of heavy showers/storms for my area and although I generally take storm threats with a pinch of salt we haven't had even so much as a drop, nada. Even when there has been partially active cb's floating around they've all passed either side of me (I've literally sat there and watched them split apart on radar). Initially I thought after a so so year last year the early signs were pointing towards a better 2019, but we're almost in june now and at the moment things round here are 2016 levels of bad. 😢

 

Sorry, don't mean to depress anyone, I'm just venting a bit out loud I guess. I just hope things pick up soon. This area used to be amazing for storms ten or twenty years ago. Now I'm pretty sure it's the most storm starved place in the country. I'm not sure what's happened? 😮

You are absolutely spot on - it’s been really bad so far this year. Whatever the possibility of storms something knocks ‘em dead before they’ve even begun.

I wouldn’t mind if every day we weren’t being told the weather is going to get more wild as years go by. If this is the kind of wild they were talking about - wildly dry and lacking in any interesting characteristics - then I’ll just stop following the weather at all.

I’m already worried we won’t get even one decent event this year in this area. Is there a reason for the decline in storms...? who knows, but it’s hard to deny that the ‘supposedly’ warm south of England (right next to the continental landmass of Europe) is one of the last places in our hemisphere that one can expect to see even the most distant of storms (except for perhaps maybe Greenland?).

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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Being on the South Coast I I believe we have one good silent light slow last year, however I wasn’t at home for photos. So watched from a distance.

This was the last photo I took from the last decent storm we had back in 2017 possibly 2018.. I storm starved 🙄

E4F6C0CA-4586-4342-9DC2-8ABDE0A24298.jpeg

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Retreat into your basements, are you ready for this?... 

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 22 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 23 May 2019

ISSUED 07:28 UTC Wed 22 May 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

One or two isolated lightning strikes may occur over eastern Scotland on Wednesday afternoon as areas of showery rain move offshore in an environment of a few hundred J/kg CAPE and reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates.

 

IMG_20190522_092325.png

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13 minutes ago, Another Kent clipper said:

Retreat into your basements, are you ready for this?... 

Day 1 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Wed 22 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Thu 23 May 2019

ISSUED 07:28 UTC Wed 22 May 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

One or two isolated lightning strikes may occur over eastern Scotland on Wednesday afternoon as areas of showery rain move offshore in an environment of a few hundred J/kg CAPE and reasonably steep mid-level lapse rates.

 

IMG_20190522_092325.png

This is like that question.....

If a tree falls in a forest does anybody hear it.....?

 

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1 hour ago, matty40s said:

This is like that question.....

If a tree falls in a forest does anybody hear it.....?

 

Nope.  Because it landed on the clever answer

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Really is starting to get tedious now. I’ve not even properly seen any lightning at all this year. I’ve only heard a few distant rumbles, and June is only two weeks away! 

Every year seems to get worse, I swear. 

At least back in the day with a cyclonic northwesterly setup, you would’ve at least seen a decent daytime storm around these parts at this time of year. Not anymore it seems! 

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It has been a very poor May for storms so far, and no real promise in the near future either. I saw a storm back on April 25th but that was not at home. As a storm chaser I normally find May to be a good month, not this year. One hope is that the poor spring for storms can be balanced by a good summer.

I have also made a promise to myself that should Estofex give out a level 3 for anywhere in Europe this summer then I will book last minute flights to be there.

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I said in a thread once that where I live is getting pretty storm starved - although I said that too early. My location has seen 3 thunderstorms this year and I think I've been quite lucky. Some places have seen more storms and some have seen fewer - and some have not seen any at all.

I remember on this week last year we got some pretty torrential thunderstorms. For the first five months this year none of us have really seen a severe/torrential thunderstorm, except the one that Hull got around a month ago. I'm not certain about what this year will bring. It kinda looks like the storm season will start to take off at around late June/early July, although I can't be too sure, because the weather is full of surprises.

It looks like next week we could see some thunderstorms, although I said that last week and over a space of three days only 2 thunderstorms were recorded over the UK. I really hope we get a Spanish plume soon.

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 24 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 25 May 2019

ISSUED 20:25 UTC Thu 23 May 2019

ISSUED BY: Chris

A relatively slack pressure pattern over the British Isles will generally bring dry conditions, however surface insolation combined with a few convergence boundaries and a little CAPE (100-300 J/kg) could lead to the risk of some isolated heavy showers developed across southern and southeastern England and SE Wales during the mid to late afternoon and early evening. Lightning is consider a low risk, not much greater than the minimum 5% required. As temperatures drop towards sunset, showers will quickly decay. 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-05-24

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Good luck to anyone who lives on the south coast of Kent. Those heavy showers will turn into thunderstorms very soon I suppose.

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I consider myself lucky to have had thunder on 3 occasions already this year, all from Atlantic airstreams. The first being a one bang wonder (not like that) in Feb, a big hailstorm with at least 5-6 flashes and bangs in March, and a short one with frequent thunder earlier this month. 

Its unusual to get this late without a plume storm though. In recent years we’ve had our first such in:

2018 - April 21st (best April thunderstorm in years)

2017 - May 11th

2016 - May 07th

2015 - Pants. No plume storm until August!

2014 - May 19th

2011 - May 07th

2008 - May 09th (immense lightning show)

2006 - May 10th (absolute bomb that lasted over 6 hours)

2005 - April 30th

2004 - May 10th (a very odd reverse plume that came from the north)

 

Most years that hasn’t achieved a plume storm by now at least delivered thundery activity in one way or another in the coming summer. 

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2 hours ago, MP-R said:

I consider myself lucky to have had thunder on 3 occasions already this year, all from Atlantic airstreams. The first being a one bang wonder (not like that) in Feb, a big hailstorm with at least 5-6 flashes and bangs in March, and a short one with frequent thunder earlier this month. 

Its unusual to get this late without a plume storm though. In recent years we’ve had our first such in:

2018 - April 21st (best April thunderstorm in years)

2017 - May 11th

2016 - May 07th

2015 - Pants. No plume storm until August!

2014 - May 19th

2011 - May 07th

2008 - May 09th (immense lightning show)

2006 - May 10th (absolute bomb that lasted over 6 hours)

2005 - April 30th

2004 - May 10th (a very odd reverse plume that came from the north)

 

Most years that hasn’t achieved a plume storm by now at least delivered thundery activity in one way or another in the coming summer. 

CFSR_1_2008050918_1.png

I'll never forget that evening watching the clouds grow to are east watching the skies turn darker then hearing that first distant rumble whilst playing football unaware of what was about to unfold, watching the lightning get closer then having the power wiped out by a positive strike!

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Absolutely nothing here since April 2018. Probably because I bought a new lens. Hoping to see something over the coming months!

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On 22/05/2019 at 16:37, Supacell said:

It has been a very poor May for storms so far, and no real promise in the near future either. I saw a storm back on April 25th but that was not at home. As a storm chaser I normally find May to be a good month, not this year. One hope is that the poor spring for storms can be balanced by a good summer.

I have also made a promise to myself that should Estofex give out a level 3 for anywhere in Europe this summer then I will book last minute flights to be there.

Oooh can I join you? Need storms... NEEED STORMS!!!

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