Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
  • Weather Preferences: Columus Bigus Convectivus
  • Location: Birmingham, Harborne 160 asl
    3 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

    Wasn’t expecting anything here,

    Plume wise no......got to see my first flash for over a year.....thanks to a little Welsh import.

    excuse my smugness.....

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 3.9k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    Caught some lovely structure last night. Just South of Hailsham, E Sussex, looking toward the coast.

    This courtesy of one of my closest friend’s Dad in Eastbourne...crank the sound right up!! Amazing! 3EC4CEA2-31E0-4E40-B801-02CA5200BA65.MP4

    In my storm watching spot for the night at Caterham view point on the southern edge of M25?

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.
  • Weather Preferences: Gales, T-storms, Heavy Rain, Heat, Cold - Love it all.
  • Location: The Purbeck Microclimate, Dorset.

    I'm not sure I buy in to a decline of thunder days, because it's not much of fixed figure in the first place.

    Despite what others have said, I remember stretches in both the 80's and 90's that didn't see any storms here. I do remember a few good ones, of course. I think a lot of it boils down to having model data at our disposal. How many times have we looked at them and they've showed something outrageous? Right down to a few days before, and nothing comes of it.. Back in the 70's 80's and 90's we had nothing to look for and so there was no such thing as a downgrade. All we relied on was a TV forecast a few nights before, or on the day.

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Glasnevin Latitude: 53°22′49″ N Longitude: 6°15′51″ W Elevation above sea level: 40 m = 131 ft
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, NLC
  • Location: Glasnevin Latitude: 53°22′49″ N Longitude: 6°15′51″ W Elevation above sea level: 40 m = 131 ft

    I actually enjoyed the show through the night. I live miles away from the event. It was the first time I sat down and tracked Thunderstorms that were not heading my direction. I seen it as an advantage to help me understand that little bit more about our weather.

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Torrington, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: storms - of the severe kind
  • Location: Torrington, Devon

    i remember them too, going back over the past. The real plume, had no trouble getting storms here. It was the 1980's, so no mobile phone video footage, but my long term memory is good. I remember some real crackers, daytime and night-time. I have memories of a couple times, when the thunder would be rumbling pretty much all night.

    Especially remember, seeing the movie 'alien' for the very first time, and a storm arrived from the south, during the movie, and by the end of the movie, there must have been strikes nearly overhead. The furniture in the house actually shook. Then the storm rumbled on for hours into the night. Maybe it was a 'thunder train' - where they line up

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, humid & exciting
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    It would be interesting to get a real statistical analysis of the decline in the thunder over the past decade or so.. I think its beyond doubt that its a fact.. and see if it can be related/correlated to any other climactic shift. Mean jetstream positions, SSTs, the effect of the freshwater from ice cap melt on the gulf stream.. Kinda makes me want to go back to university.. Any meteorology students on here?! 

    Below is a graphic from a paper by Gray & Marshall showing the track of all MCS' in the UK between 1981 and 1997.I think its probably been on here before. Would be fantastic to see a similar paper covering the period 2001 to 2017.. Even just the number of cases in the same period would be instructive. 

    Screenshot_20190625-175555.jpg

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, gales, all extreme weather really!
  • Location: St Neots, previously Billericay & Brentwood

    One for the decline in thunder days thread as well but this hugging the continent coastline that is so common now - someone suggested years ago that it was the disparity in temperatures causing a sort of mini jet stream steering the storms along the warm continent- could that be a real possibility? France with such hot temps compared to UK, kind of makes sense to me.

    Without doubt though there has been a significant decline - the 80s and 90s had far more storms imby (Essex 38 years and now cambs). It happens so often now that I'm very convinced its climate change- same can be said for the decline in snow in winter, with exceptions to the new rule of course. Shame.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    Where it is okay to drift off topic sometimes as this section of the forums is quite relaxed, it does seem as if this thread has de-railed into something that we already have another thread for. Please can we try and keep this thread to discussing future and current convective opportunities and post about the decline in thunderstorms over here. Thanks ?

    That being said, I am closing this thread shortly as it is getting a little long, and opening a new one.

     

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wigan
  • Location: Wigan
    8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

    I'm not sure I buy in to a decline of thunder days, because it's not much of fixed figure in the first place.

    Despite what others have said, I remember stretches in both the 80's and 90's that didn't see any storms here. I do remember a few good ones, of course. I think a lot of it boils down to having model data at our disposal. How many times have we looked at them and they've showed something outrageous? Right down to a few days before, and nothing comes of it.. Back in the 70's 80's and 90's we had nothing to look for and so there was no such thing as a downgrade. All we relied on was a TV forecast a few nights before, or on the day.

    I think thats part of it, regarding model watching , but there still has been a decline too,   When the forecasts mentioned thunder ,60 percent or more the time you got thunder  , even when you didn't you got distant lightning,  if the storms were forecast in you area for the night time , 

     

    When thunder is mentioned in forecasts now I dismiss it . especially  the terms 'thundery rain' ,  'odd rumble of thunder' and 'thundery at times'   It rarely comes to pass , well maybe 5 percent success rate at best

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    New thread here

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...