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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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Just now, Robbie Garrett said:

In terms of a debrief,  I think the English Channel has something to play here and has done for the last 20 years.  I wish I had of print screened it but the MetOffice app was showing the rain 30-40 miles west of where it currently is.  Maybe more.

I wonder if it's the warmer sea surface temperatures vs last millennia.  Presumably in the 90s,  the cooler channel would feed the storms whereas today the temperature gradient is different and thus the winds are slightly different as a result.   I say this because when we have a strong easterly we get Snow CBs.  The air aloft is cooler than the SSTs whereas in the Summer the plume is warmer.  So you'll have a strong gradient between sea and air aloft. 

I know that the warmer SSTs in the tropics feed the cells.  But they are FL500+  whereas the UK rarely sees FL340+  due to the tropopause, but they are different beasts in nature.

What was the SSTs of the Channel between  1990-1999 and 2000-2010 and 2011 and 2019? 

Because this local variation of change means the winds are different and obviously less conductive to imports.  Its obviously a fraction of degree difference or something that's stopping these imports from what the models predict to reality.  Even up to 1/2 hours out.

 

Thoughts?

It's not just solely imports that have been affected though. There's a lack of storms in general, all over the country. 

Most of the time it's due to the fact we don't even get the required set up but even when we do, storms seem to be less widespread and tamer these days.

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I think people are missing the point - last night/this morning we just didn’t have all the right ingredients at the right moment. Storms took too long to leave France and ended up shifted to the east by enough margin that they missed us almost completely.

Look at the rates on the active cells, too. It’s hardly impressive, I think this is because the period spent over on the continent used up a lot of the potential - ran the batteries dry essentially.

Now look at the current rainfall rates. These alone warranted a warning IMO.

I’m only half way home but the roads are pretty treacherous in places - and yet the rain keeps coming...

Last week is testament that we can still have some severe and in some cases quite frightening storms.

Sea temperatures will start to bear a peak soon enough, and if we can keep the current general synoptic pattern I think there’s plenty of scope for other more widespread events.

Personally I learn something new with every storm, plus got to chat in person with another chaser (in the rain tho, lol) so it’s been an enjoyable and worthwhile night.

Do feel for those that travelled a long way to see what I do now consider to be a kind of bust.

...but at least I’m calling it after it was proved to be so 😉 

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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I've enjoyed today's storms just as much as last weeks! Not the constant flashing, but still multiple strikes per minute and the thunder has been far superior. Certainly another memorable event, personally.

Some awesome cloudscape as sun rose and now enjoying vivid lilac cg's from the southern cell which is just coming ashore 😁 

 

DSC_0653.JPG

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Underwhelming here Rain and thats about the strength of it. A Kent clipper for the storms so far. I knew it.

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14 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Do feel for those that travelled a long way to see what I do now consider to be a kind of bust.

In that case, a bust in the SE is equivalent to a storm fest in the north Midlands 😂

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Theres a few flashes coming from that cell to my west but can't hear any thunder from it despite it being close. One thing I am noticing is theres some very fast moving scud like clouds (have I made that up?) moving in the opposite direction to the storm so I assume there must still be some energy left in it yet.

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1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

It's not just solely imports that have been affected though. There's a lack of storms in general, all over the country. 

Most of the time it's due to the fact we don't even get the required set up but even when we do, storms seem to be less widespread and tamer these days.

Also SSTs should be irrelevant anyway when it comes to elevated storms. And if it were SSTs, surely cooler waters would choke surface based storms? And if say it were warmer SSTs having an effect then wouldn't you see a natural decline in thunderstorm imports as a summer progresses as SSTs getting warmer over time? That would be have surely been noted over the years. 

I don't buy the SSTs argument 

There was a theory of a link between solar and thunderstorm activity in the Victorian era. Question is that the last time the sun was this inactive was thunderstorm activity similarly below par? 

Fot me, storm activity has been down this decade compared to the previous decades as has solar activity. Solar activity was low just before the First World War, similiar to currently. Was storm activity lower as well in that period? 

Might be worth doing a little research to see if it was. 

Edited by Weather-history

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Could the blob over SW UK be the start of something? Certainly showing more signs of life now that it has got to or shores...

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storms got going about 1 hour earlier than expected yesterday evening, and kept back-building over France. Storms training up through the same area, maybe there was competing for energy going on. There was a long wait, for them to reach the coast, and start the journey across the Channel

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Loooooool England has the most boring and pathetic climate on earth. The only country where storms actively avoid it. After all the hype, I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a significant bust.

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The stuff in the SW is starting to look heavier than the stuff in the SE 😂

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4 minutes ago, Azazel said:

I don’t think I’ve ever seen such a significant bust.

Seen plenty. Had one named 'el busto' a few years back.

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5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The stuff in the SW is starting to look heavier than the stuff in the SE 😂

Torrential rain here

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6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Seen plenty. Had one named 'el busto' a few years back.

I mean I’ve seen some big busts but this one seemed nailed on to at least smash through Sussex etc.

the storms seem to reach the French coast and then completely defy the laws of physics etc to simply avoid England at all costs. It’s quite remarkable really.

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At least I did get a few rumbles last night so it wasn’t a complete bust here.... but it was definitely nowhere near its full potential

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11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The stuff in the SW is starting to look heavier than the stuff in the SE 😂

Yeah its raining not liking it i want sun baked ground for later lol 

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1 minute ago, Azazel said:

I mean I’ve seen some big busts but this one seemed nailed on to at least smash through Sussex etc.

the storms seem to reach the French coast and then completely defy the laws of physics etc to simply avoid England at all costs. It’s quite remarkable really.

Yeah I've been saying for a while now that things don't seem right and @Weather-history has touched on it too.

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10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Seen plenty. Had one named 'el busto' a few years back.

I think there were 4 during summer 2017. Our area was in the "sweet spot" for storm potential according to storm forecasterss and it was bust everytime. No guarantees but you would have thought at least 1 out of the 4 would have came off. 

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1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

I think there were 4 during summer 2017. Our area was in the "sweet spot" for storm potential according to storm forecasterss and it was bust everytime. No guarantees but you would have thought at least 1 out of the 4 would have came off. 

It's bizarre

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