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Supacell

Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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Just now, Mitch perrott said:

Multiple distant flashes from my house, great to watch 

Glad some people are getting a show! Enjoy!!

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Insane rain rate but nothing else. Another bust. 

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2 minutes ago, TheToastPeople said:

Glad some people are getting a show! Enjoy!!

Thankyou!  Im so tired now though  ;-;

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3 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

Thankyou!  Im so tired now though  ;-;

A night well spent though!

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3 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

The landfall does seem to be a tad anticlimactic at the present time

It's red on my radar meaning rapidly developing, still has potential 

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3 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

Thankyou!  Im so tired now though  ;-;

Me too, and I have to drive back to Derby 😂

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1 minute ago, TheToastPeople said:

A night well spent though!

True true!

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2 minutes ago, Mitch perrott said:

It's red on my radar meaning rapidly developing, still has potential 

I dunno this doesn’t look or feel like a developing storm system anymore to me

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Anyones views on any development of the heavy stuff further west as on radar it does look like it's trying to organise?

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2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Me too, and I have to drive back to Derby 😂

Lmao, the huge cell is about to make landfall by the way, well the potent part anyway

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3 minutes ago, sunnijim said:

 

There will be a post mortem on this one, given nearly all of the warnings from different respected agencies have called for a much greater frequency of lightning and problems arising from severe thunderstorms,the trigger just hasn't been there in the South.Perhaps it will start to fire further North?

 

This is probably fairly stupid, but I do wonder if the northerly direction of the wind (at lower levels) inhibited the progression of things tonight? A kinda push back- I know it was mentioned that these were likely to be elevated, so effected more by wind direction higher up, but this noob does muse.

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I dunno this doesn’t look or feel like a developing storm system anymore to me

I'm keeping my eyes on the line of red and white that's about to make landfall

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We seem to be getting some here on sheppey nothing like last weeks another 2 more big flashes and thunder plus really heavy rain so I am happy if not tired. 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Hirudine said:

This is probably fairly stupid, but I do wonder if the northerly direction of the wind (at lower levels) inhibited the progression of things tonight? A kinda push back- I know it was mentioned that these were likely to be elevated, so effected more by wind direction higher up, but this noob does muse.

Apparently - or so I’ve read elsewhere - the  initial storms in France were so slow moving that they literally sucked available energy out of the atmosphere.

We”re essentially getting diet thunderstorms, with all the sugar removed.

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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Strikes are still very few and far between here. Thunder a lot louder when it happens but this really is a weak storm if ever I saw one.

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Upon further inspection, The close strike was a 10 minute walk away from my house... WOW. Imagine if this storm was surface based... Probably would have deafened, and blinded me. 

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What an underwhelming radar

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Hi guys, whats it like in blighty? Im due to fly in to Stansted Airport at 8.30am?

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7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

What an underwhelming radar

Indeed. And an underwhelming night of watching too. Well we live and learn 😊

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Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Mizzle said:

Indeed. And an underwhelming night of watching too. Well we live and learn 😊

Not a clue what is going on where storms are concerned.

Everything fails to come off or downgrades

 

Edited by CreweCold

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not a clue what is going on where storms are concerned.

Everything fails to come off or downgrades

 

It will be interesting to read the post mortem on this one: everything pointed to a good storm as I understand it. And yet wow, what a bust! Guess the unknown factors are what keeps it interesting . 😂

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Just had 3 - 4 loud rumbles in the last 10 minutes. None of which have appeared on blitzortung 

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In terms of a debrief,  I think the English Channel has something to play here and has done for the last 20 years.  I wish I had of print screened it but the MetOffice app was showing the rain 30-40 miles west of where it currently is.  Maybe more.

I wonder if it's the warmer sea surface temperatures vs last millennia.  Presumably in the 90s,  the cooler channel would feed the storms whereas today the temperature gradient is different and thus the winds are slightly different as a result.   I say this because when we have a strong easterly we get Snow CBs.  The air aloft is cooler than the SSTs whereas in the Summer the plume is warmer.  So you'll have a strong gradient between sea and air aloft. 

I know that the warmer SSTs in the tropics feed the cells.  But they are FL500+  whereas the UK rarely sees FL340+  due to the tropopause, but they are different beasts in nature.

What was the SSTs of the Channel between  1990-1999 and 2000-2010 and 2011 and 2019? 

Because this local variation of change means the winds are different and obviously less conductive to imports.  Its obviously a fraction of degree difference or something that's stopping these imports from what the models predict to reality.  Even up to 1/2 hours out.

 

Thoughts?

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