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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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Thunderstorm here! 

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A couple of rumbles North of Bristol coming from the thundery showers to my SE. Looks like more developing behind heading this way a bit later this afternoon 🙂

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First thunderstorm of 2019 pretty decent about 5 strikes so far in cloud and cloud to ground.. 

 

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Just heard a second rumble of thunder in Reading, it's not near here though, out to the north/north east. 

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As I mentioned in my regional thread, not so much of a sniff of anything convective related this year. Last storm was May 27th 2017.

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2 in one day... Good old chilterns, providing some lift I assume.. 

Edited by Surrey

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Kent clipper anyone later on in the early hours.. 

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Somethings looking a bit nice to my West

edit Rain.....

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Edited by Arnie Pie
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Possibly just heard my first rumble of 2019.... Hard to say for certain though 

 

Edit: No, that was definitely thunder! It’s been a long time! 😊

Edited by Thunderstruck
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Been a bust here, as the front didn’t clear as far north in time for diurnal heating. That’s the difference a 50 mile shift south can mean! A whole world away in Cambridge just 30 odd miles down the road. I should’ve chased! 

Never mind, onto the next day, which is looking quite far away to be fair. Unless we can get that high shunted much further east next week. 

I do love a setup like this though, morning rain followed by a rapid clear up and heat up from the south, and then thunderstorms galore. July 28th 2005 is the best example you can get. 

Edited by East_England_Stormchaser91
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second thunderstorm of the day here in Watford, couple of really good claps of thunder lots of hail. Decent day! 

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Hoping something happens later down here. I see a nice band of rain coming from the SW?

Been quite hot on the coast today once clouds have passed

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Stonking showers if anyone watching the cricket at the oval

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Thu 09 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Fri 10 May 2019

ISSUED 20:36 UTC Wed 08 May 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

Broad upper trough covers the British Isles on Thursday, associated cool air aloft combined with diurnal heating helping to generate a couple hundred J/kg CAPE. Low-level convergence will aid the development of scattered showers in a rather random fashion, primarily within the LOW threat area.

The most intense cells may produce a few sporadic lightning strikes - particularly across SE England and Northern Ireland / northern Republic of Ireland. Given somewhat weak shear and marginal CAPE, coupled with some concern over excessive cloud associated with lingering occlusion debris, have refrained from issuing any low-end SLGTs for now. In any case, there may well be several reports of funnel clouds / weak tornado given marked low-level convergence, ample surface moisture and relatively low cloud bases.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-05-09

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 Eumetsat Images show low pressure system to the north west of Ireland Currently which should sink south towards Northern Ireland. An area of vorticity wraps this low which should affect parts of Ireland from midday on wards. Eumetsat images also show a weak lobe of vorticity approaching the south west which should spread along the southern coast of England (affecting Wales now and south west soon) . This is not particularly well modeled so could pep up showers as it moves across.

 Low level winds show marked convergence zones initially along the m4 corridor and along the south coast but moving towards the south east from midday. Later convergence sets up across parts of Wales and the midlands.

 Forecast SkewT's show a marked temperature notch at 600Hpa as drier air comes in aloft and a lowering of the tropopause thus limiting convective height.Convection is likely to be better where the convective height is slightly lower.

 With temperatures on the low side still and limited cloud height it is likely that thunderstorms will be limited to Ireland and along the south coast. Key areas are likely to be Southampton to Reading from midday moving quickly eastwards during the early afternoon although mid to upper level cloud could limit convection. There is an elevated spout (very weak tornado) risk for the south east but particularly for parts of Ireland.In my opinion thunderstorms are likely to be very isolated today and not significantly severe although there is a risk of localized flooding.

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Here we go again.. Can we make it 2 days on the trot

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Very low cloud bases... 

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Day 2 Convective Outlook

VALID 06:00 UTC Fri 10 May 2019 - 05:59 UTC Sat 11 May 2019

ISSUED 18:50 UTC Thu 09 May 2019

ISSUED BY: Dan

... FRIDAY DAYTIME ...

Broad westerly flow aloft, though subtle hints of upper ridging. Some patchy / showery rain may affect parts of Scotland and northern England at times through the day, associated with a weakening quasi-stationary occlusion. Nonetheless, cool air aloft combined with surface heating and both orographic forcing and low-level convergence will aid in the development of numerous scattered showers almost anywhere across the British Isles, hence a rather broad LOW threat area.

Instability is somewhat weak (a couple hundred J/kg CAPE) but there is some reasonable shear over England in particular, and so a few isolated lightning strikes will be possible - but most areas will be void of lightning. Small hail will be possible in many of the showers, and perhaps a funnel cloud. Any showers that do form will tend to decay during the evening as diurnal heating subsides.

... FRIDAY EVENING / NIGHT ...

An Atlantic frontal system will approach SW England / Scilly Isles late in the day, influenced by the left exit region of the approaching jet streak as an upper trough migrates across the western English Channel and northern France during the evening / night hours. This increased forcing aloft coupled with several hundred J/kg CAPE, may result in some embedded convection with sporadic lightning possible - particularly over the Channel Islands. A SLGT may be required over parts of the English Channel.

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-05-10

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Guest

Netweather has a Storm Warning out for tomorrow in the home counties and southern area. Well its always nice to see there is a chance of something thundery, but looking at the SkewT, Cape, Lifted, Temps, Precip forecasts I just cant see where the ingredients are to make this happen. There is pretty much no CAPE with temps maxing out at 16/17 in London but more likely 14/15 elsewhere. Lifted Index is at best -1 and there is enough convective inhibition to stifle anything that does get going.

Edited by Guest
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Plenty of moisture laden surfaces here for the sun to work on, if it does come out. Nothing like what Texas is currently seeing though, my word. Now that is what you call a proper MCS

A4B6659B-B9F6-4192-8D93-AD75D1A26D9D.png

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