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Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

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GFS has no significant storm risk until 7.00am tomorrow in my part of Essex.

Edited by poseidon

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2 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

An MCS/multiple storms will erupt somewhere but wont be until 1am to 3am range.  The Midlands has been trying all day to erupt , we could be missing a trick here and it's actually Swindon/Bristol.further west that erupt in early hours.

I hope so!!! Sat here watching toying if to go out and chase but really want to see some signs of action near our coastline before I make a move.

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Just now, Summer Sun said:

 

The main band is not where the risk is though..

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

That's the final straw, off to bed. Another disappointing event.

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Per Schafernaker's tweet, that darn English Channel. Am gonna stay up for another couple of hours, if nowt happens, then I'm going to bed.

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6 minutes ago, ChezWeather said:

You are crackers mate, i was planning on heading South too but having work at 9am put me off, i admire your dedication! 

 

 

Storm starvation will drive a man to extremes! Heading to Surrey 😂

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1 minute ago, Joey.G said:

Storm starvation will drive a man to extremes! Heading to Surrey 😂

I would head the other way round the M25 towards Kent

Also they’ve shut J11 & 12 for roadworks so it might be tricky getting onto the A3

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Could be a massive bust tonight even for the south east judging from that tweet!!ah well will make it less painful for us midlanders lol!!

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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Why do people spend all night naysaying ?

No patience 

tenor.gif.c3c3abd99f87781c50b5ce67cace1af3.gif

just nay saying😁

peeps are throwing it in too early.

 

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57 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Great spot 👍

Camping chair out and a cold beer I think

🙂

Glad you found the spot suitable.

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5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Not so sure I buy that, given that it’s a different area of the atmosphere that is supposed to ignite the storms for the early hours. That French stuff was surface based. I’ve seen a few storms decay through the late evening in the past, only for a completely renewed new batch of elevated activity fire up later on at 1-2AM. 

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There are Cells (or what seems to be one good one) that have just left the shores of France, strikes included.

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2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

No patience 

tenor.gif.c3c3abd99f87781c50b5ce67cace1af3.gif

just nay saying😁

peeps are throwing it in too early.

 

Haha! Love it..

 

I'm.sat near Gatwick, having come from cirencester. All I have is hope and coffee! 

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Plenty of heavy rain showers spraying out of Rennes - almost like it's shooting them out north and east. But no electrics in them.

These could be interesting to watch as they progress. Lots of stuff following up the original development.

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2 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Not so sure I buy that, given that it’s a different area of the atmosphere that is supposed to ignite the storms for the early hours. That French stuff was surface based. I’ve seen a few storms decay through the late evening in the past, only for a completely renewed new batch of elevated activity fire up later on at 1-2AM. 

Are you still headed to Ashdown?

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3 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Not so sure I buy that, given that it’s a different area of the atmosphere that is supposed to ignite the storms for the early hours. That French stuff was surface based. I’ve seen a few storms decay through the late evening in the past, only for a completely renewed new batch of elevated activity fire up later on at 1-2AM. 

Yes, and there's been plenty-a-time where that hasn't been the case. Let's just wait and see.

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Does seem a rather strange call by Tomasz S

A few others mentioning that the system will re-invigorate possibly into another MCS once those cells make landfall in the UK

Good luck everyone! 

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5 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Glad you found the spot suitable.

good find by the way.  There's quite a few car parks here, I chose the "friends" one in the end.  Not sure if I'm gonna sit and kill time in this seemingly dynamic rain or retreat to London and find a hill

Edited by Another Kent clipper

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TORRO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 2019/002

A TORRO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH has been issued at 23:45BST on Monday 24th June 2019

Valid from/until: 23:45 - 10:00BST on Monday 24th/Tuesday 25th June 2019 for the following regions of the United Kingdom:

SE England

E Anglia

Parts of the E Mids, Lincs, and the east of Central Southern England

THREATS

Hail to 20-30mm diameter; wind gusts to 55mph; frequent lightning; local flash flooding.

SYNOPSIS

An upper short-wave trough is approaching southern Britain. Atop a cooling boundary layer, strong theta-w advection is occurring from the south-east as the 850 hPa flow backs into the south-east and increases, due to the approaching upper trough. Lift from the approaching upper trough is steepening mid-level lapse rates and inducing convective development from this elevated moisture plume across N France. Wind shear through the cloud-bearing layer will be conducive to rightwards-propagating MCS development (relative to the mean tropospheric flow), and cells within evolving mesoscale complexes may develop mid-level rotation. Any such cell will bring the risk of large hail to 20-30mm diameter, whilst any linear elements could promote strong wind gusts, although the elevated nature and moist boundary layer may limit this somewhat. The high moisture content of the plume will also allow for some intense rainfall rates, with an attendant threat of local flash flooding.

To the west of this area, showers and perhaps one or two thunderstorms are also possible, especially across parts of the W Midlands and E Wales later in the night - which may also bring a flash-flood risk. Overall, this region has a lower risk of thunderstorms and hence severe weather - it is a non-zero risk, though, but a lack of organised activity due to the best instability being further east precludes issuing a watch, even though a local threat cannot be ruled out.

Forecaster: RPK.

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1 minute ago, Another Kent clipper said:

good find by the way.  There's quite a few car parks here, I chose the "friends" one in the end.  Not sure if I'm gonna sit and kill time in this seemingly dynamic rain or retreat to London and find a hill

Ah I think I got confused who else was here.

Im on the south side of the road. Hiding in the van until the rain stops.

Was that you in a small car earlier?

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2 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Are you still headed to Ashdown?

I’ve not set out yet mate, I’m still scratching my head, given that activity is forecasted to hit Cambs and East Anglia potentially, come around 3-4AM. Decisions!! 

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Just now, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

I’ve not set out yet mate, I’m still scratching my head, given that activity is forecasted to hit Cambs and East Anglia potentially, come around 3-4AM. Decisions!! 

I got you and AKC confused sorry 😄

Edited by Flash bang flash bang etc

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