Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Supacell

Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Supacell said:

I use netweather extra. You do have to pay a small subscription but radar extra is only £3.95/month. It is really good as it provides 5 minute updates and also offers location zoom and so I can see where my car is in relation to the storms. 

Ah thankyou for the information, i will think about making the purchase!, also do you think broadstairs will get hit?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We're probably looking at the best chance of severe thunderstorms across the SE/EA than we've seen for a while.

CAPE isn't all that extreme but it's there, thankfully the storms will be developing across N France in a much higher CAPE/LI environment, the CAPE over the SE will only serve to allow storms to continue tracking northwards across the region 

4873812_MLCAPE.thumb.png.d57c1a9a196322cf274c7464faa1a231.png

PWAT is moderately high so some areas have the potential to see A LOT of rainfall in a very short space of time, I think flooding could be a risk tonight more than anything else 

PWAT.thumb.png.4f1c932da05a6bd64c5c4a85b82ad50f.png

Fairly steep lapse rates, not significantly strong over the UK but decent, almost supercell territory across the channel 

LAPSE.thumb.png.1a81943a39b8da9a25b0337bf2736cc0.png

DLS is almost off the scale however! This should allow storms to remain organised, MCS very likely, supercell a low risk but a possibility given strong shear levels

DLS.thumb.png.2a99d050ab6d43b8442e96d246bd7cad.png

Moderate risk of severe (MCS) storms moving N from about 11pm-4am bringing frequent lightning (most likely elevated) gusty winds, torrential rain & hail. Small possibility given the shear profile of storms becoming supercellular in nature possibly producing funnel clouds/an isolated weak tornado, though rotational shear looks relatively weak and probably wouldn't be able to maintain a tornado for any real length of time.

AROME.jpg

Edited by Met4Cast

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

Ah thankyou for the information, i will think about making the purchase!, also do you think broadstairs will get hit?

I would think slightly further west would be best favoured but plume type thunderstorm set ups are very difficult to forecast with total accuracy. If I was going to stick my neck out I would say Brighton, through central London and up the M11 at a guess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

We're probably looking at the best chance of severe thunderstorms across the SE/EA than we've seen for a while.

CAPE isn't all that extreme but it's there, thankfully the storms will be developing across N France in a much higher CAPE/LI environment, the CAPE over the SE will only serve to allow storms to continue tracking northwards across the region 

4873812_MLCAPE.thumb.png.d57c1a9a196322cf274c7464faa1a231.png

PWAT is moderately high so some areas have the potential to see A LOT of rainfall in a very short space of time, I think flooding could be a risk tonight more than anything else 

PWAT.thumb.png.4f1c932da05a6bd64c5c4a85b82ad50f.png

Fairly steep lapse rates, not significantly strong over the UK but decent, almost supercell territory across the channel 

LAPSE.thumb.png.1a81943a39b8da9a25b0337bf2736cc0.png

DLS is almost off the scale however! This should allow storms to remain organised, MCS very likely, supercell a low risk but a possibility given strong shear levels

DLS.thumb.png.2a99d050ab6d43b8442e96d246bd7cad.png

 

AROME.jpg

With the last image, im at the very end of the south east and i dont see any of rainfall logged, is that not a sign to me missing the storms at my location?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A quick butchers at the 12Z UKV shows a slight shift East again. It's simply not pinned down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

With the last image, im at the very end of the south east and i dont see any of rainfall logged, is that not a sign to me missing the storms at my location?

I wouldn't get hung up on exact PPN placements, it's far too uncertain to look at it in that level of detail 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I would think slightly further west would be best favoured but plume type thunderstorm set ups are very difficult to forecast with total accuracy. If I was going to stick my neck out I would say Brighton, through central London and up the M11 at a guess.

Supercell if you are near the Ashdown forest area send me an pm I know of some good viewing spots there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It definitely feels like the potential for some good thunderstorms here. Very humid. Lots of little bugs and flies around too, annoying me every time I go outside.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

A quick butchers at the 12Z UKV shows a slight shift East again. It's simply not pinned down.

I know you can't post a chart but would ukv favour east or west of London?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

A quick butchers at the 12Z UKV shows a slight shift East again. It's simply not pinned down.

enough though in that case to safely call a no-storm show for this area....won't waste my time radar watching tonight

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Sun now coming out here and it is very, very humid. Some signs of instability in the sky too. If all goes to plan this could be a very good night 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Met Office update seems to match that of the 03z output below

There are 2 areas of interest tonight I think,  the Bristol/East Wales/Shropshire area marked, and the IOW/Reading/London/SE area.

Screenshot_15.thumb.jpg.c3c708e67cfb86f0a1d98413236c882a.jpg

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just been out too and the sun's trying to get out. Can see some convection and ever so often we get a breeze which i'm thankful for. Been awhile since it's been so muggy and warm. (feels like a swimming pool outside)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

does look like two seperate areas according to the Arome post above.

Slightly less intense to the west and then a beastly area to the east.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Clouds picking up here on the coast, some quite dark. 

30 degree heat at work for the past 3 days (chef life) the heat is crippling 😂

not pinning too much hope on tonight but would be lovely for some cleaner air! 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

Met Office update seems to match that of the 03z output below

There are 2 areas of interest tonight I think,  the Bristol/East Wales/Shropshire area marked, and the IOW/Reading/London/SE area.

Screenshot_15.thumb.jpg.c3c708e67cfb86f0a1d98413236c882a.jpg

 

Could you explain the arrows surrounding the areas please, sorry i have not studied meteorology, couldnt stand other parts of geography for example human geography  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Supacell said:

I know you can't post a chart but would ukv favour east or west of London?

Just going by the 12Z, i'd either get myself to somewhere between Bognor and Eastbourne, or if you didn't want to go down that far, perhaps somewhere between Hertfordshire and Essex?!

2 minutes ago, A.J said:

enough though in that case to safely call a no-storm show for this area....won't waste my time radar watching tonight

I was going to say the opposite.. lol
The good thing about the UKV is, each run starts with current observations and runs 8 times a day. It's just these are dreadful synoptics for pinning anything down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WOW what a storm! I have never seen rain that intense closest would be the July 2015 storm, went from nothing to gutters overflowing in seconds, almost certain there will be local flooding, also a definite wind shift in the middle so not sure if some rotation, I will try and upload vids to my YouTube later, I was right under the purple on radar, some lightning and gunshot thunder too.Screenshot_20190624_153019.thumb.jpg.35295e76e0e5ef1c1d40227d66a2d76d.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

sat in an air conditioned office, so no idea how it feels outside,  has been quite murky and misty all day here.

Weather station at home says it is 20.3°C and 86% humidity 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Mitch perrott said:

Could you explain the arrows surrounding the areas please, sorry i have not studied meteorology, couldnt stand other parts of geography for example human geography  

I haven't studied Meteorology either.  But the arrows are just markers to show the areas of interest,  they are where I think sferic activity will occur.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, StormChaseUK said:

I haven't studied Meteorology either.  But the arrows are just markers to show the areas of interest,  they are where I think sferic activity will occur.

I think they mean, why those areas?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

A quick butchers at the 12Z UKV shows a slight shift East again. It's simply not pinned down.

Not liking these incremental shifts - I'm desperately hoping I'm not going to be on the western fringes under torrential rain and getting occasional flickers from the eastern edge. 

Naturally, I'm hoping even more so that we get storms at all....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

sat in an air conditioned office, so no idea how it feels outside,  has been quite murky and misty all day here.

Weather station at home says it is 20.3°C and 86% humidity 

 

Very jealous, it's reached 28C in our office so far with condensation on all cold surfaces (such as water bottles). Outside peaked at 26C with a dew point of 20C, which is quite impressive for UK standards. Not pleasant to work in though!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Just going by the 12Z, i'd either get myself to somewhere between Bognor and Eastbourne, or if you didn't want to go down that far, perhaps somewhere between Hertfordshire and Essex?!

Thanks for that. I would be willing to go as far as the south coast but I may not need to.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...