Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

9 minutes ago, Azazel said:

If I’m correct, there’s an absolutely tiny chance something might pop up this far south this afternoon. Clutching at straws but it’s all I’ve got.

We’re getting closer...

[Midlander]

Just now, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

We’re getting closer...

Hi is this your own forecast?

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 hours ago, Supacell said:

What a complicated set up over the next couple of days. I will try and post my thoughts later today, but at present the models are all over the place, even for within the next 24 hours. However, don't let GFS CAPE charts fool you, there will still be a lot of energy available later today onwards. MUCAPE chart for 3am tomorrow morning. No, it is not the 3000j/kg that was being forecast a few days ago, but still widely over 1000j/kg. Granted storms would be elevated, but I do not think storm lovers in Eastbourne on Tuesday night would have been complaining that the storms weren't surface based .

Those tuesday night storms were amongst the best I’ve seen in the UK. If we can get anything like that then it will be a memorable night for someone, somewhere

Edited June 23, 2019 by Flash bang flash bang etc

[Harry]

Stepping outside this morning was in stark contrast to yesterday. Yesterday - crystal clear blue skies, blazing sunshine and feeling cool in the shade. Today - hazy skies, warm and more humid feeling. 

The sun is now breaking through a mackerel sky and it’s fair to say the temperature is responding nicely. 

The FAX chart for 06z Monday makes very interesting reading. MetO clearly expecting a secondary Low to develop through tonight, being centred somewhere around Salisbury with an associated cold front stretching from the Midlands to IoW. The warm front and chasing trough feature still straddling northern areas. If this plays out there could be a much broader area of destabilisation of the plume, hence recent upgrades of warnings (eg see ConvectiveWeather map). 

Going to be an interesting evening/night - might be optimistic for me to hope to see a few flashes but stranger things have happened over the years! With all the forecast and model uncertainty anything should be expected in my view.

Edited June 23, 2019 by Harry

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, AppleUK 123 said:

Hi is this your own forecast?

Sorry forgot to credit PJB @ UKWW

[TJS1998Tom]

Oooo im in the moderate risks from connective weather's forecast. Should be interesting. Might need to charge my camrers ready for tonight ; ) 

[cyclonic happiness]

Some showers popping up in the southern Midlands .

[SarahWxm]

What is the risk of Wrexham in North East Wales catching a good storm later on today/tonight? Keeping fingers crossed  ? ⛈ 

[Harry]

Just jumping briefly ahead to tomorrow night, a (bizarrely) lot of model agreement, albeit timings vary slightly by a matter of hours. Instability an issue for me as this seems largely east of where much of the precipitation is showing, but nonetheless potential there!

[Mesoscale]

The forecast absolutely tanked, what happened for today's storms up North? 

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

Looks like Richmond Hill could be a great vantage point tomorrow overnight

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

The forecast absolutely tanked, what happened for today's storms up North? 

They're not forecast until later this evening and overnight.

[ChezWeather]

6 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:

The forecast absolutely tanked, what happened for today's storms up North? 

I'm not sure if this is a troll post or not, but anyway, storms aren't forecast until this evening/overnight 

http://www.convectiveweather.co.uk/forecast.php?date=2019-06-23

[oliverek7]

Looks like London seems to be in the firing line for Monday night into Tuesday. BBC’s forecast has the precipitation sat further east than originally a few days ago and so does ECM. Think I may be in luck!

 

Edited June 23, 2019 by Oliver Wyndham-lewis

[Mapantz]

Here's the EWN WRF probability map:

It's a bit like a 'Total Totals' index.

[Chris.R]

 I’m a bit confuse now. Not sure whether I should stick with my plan of doing an all nighter still or get up at sunrise. Liverpool TAF doesn’t want anything overnight until 9 am. 

[Weather-history]

Manchester TAF

Time: 12:53 (11:53 UTC)

Forecast

The report was made 58 minutes ago, at 10:55UTC

Forecast valid from 23 at 12 UTC to 24 at 18 UTC

Wind 8 kt from the East

Visibility 10 km or more

Few clouds at a height of 4500 ft

Temporary
from 23 at 16 UTC to 23 at 21 UTC

Visibility: 6000 m

rain

Probability 30% :

Temporary
from 23 at 18 UTC to 24 at 02 UTC

Visibility: 3000 m

heavy rain showers, thunderstorm, rain

Probability 30% :

Temporary
from 24 at 08 UTC to 24 at 12 UTC

Visibility: 3000 m

Broken clouds at a height of 1200 ft, Cumulonimbus.

heavy rain showers, thunderstorm, rain

TAF: EGCC 231055Z 2312/2418 08008KT 9999 FEW045 TEMPO 2316/2321 6000 RA PROB30 TEMPO 2318/2402 3000 +SHRA TSRA PROB30 TEMPO 2408/2412 3000+SHRA TSRA BKN012CB

[LightningLover]

Yeah! Looks like East Sussex could be in the firing line again tomorrow evening!!! How good would that be, getting another spectacular lightning show, off the back of the previous one...? Fingers crossed!

[Harry]

10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Here's the EWN WRF probability map:

It's a bit like a 'Total Totals' index.

If this comes off it’ll be a repeat of last Tuesday and apart from a some flashes/distant rumbles it’ll miss me. Boooooo!!

[Chris.R]

 I actually just noticed WRF 6Z is finally showing some good parameters for tonight. MUCAPE of 600 J/KG and LI of -3 in the early hours. 

[sunnijim]

The long hot summer of 2003.

The situation, convective parcels in the morning that produced cracking overhead thunder in generaly blue skies and baking heat

Lightning strikes also reported.

Guessing at July? Maybe a weak cold front moving down from NW?

An interesting set up and experiance for sure and it lives in the mind as unusual and spectaculer.

I wonder if anyone else remembers or can shed some light on it chart wise?

[Mapantz]

09Z UKV has moved things a touch further West for Monday night in to Tuesday.

[Josh Rubio]

Forecast seems all over the place at the minute. 

For tomorrow (Monday), BBC text forecast has gone from ‘thunderstorms quickly clearing away in the morning, with increasingly dry and settled conditions’, to ‘a risk of thunderstorms developing in the afternoon and evening’.

This is for the East Midlands. 

Edited June 23, 2019 by Josh Rubio

[Supacell]

NMM shows some big storms breaking out tomorrow afternoon across eastern England before pushing NE. If that comes off then Lincolnshire and East Yorkshire would get a clobbering.

Edited June 23, 2019 by Supacell

[sunnijim]

10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

09Z UKV has moved things a touch further West for Monday night in to Tuesday.

Indeed,the storms last Tuesday were just to my East,although a great lightning display,Eastbourne being the sweet spot.

So just to my West Tuesday? Worthing the sweet spot this time!