Storms and Convective Discussion - 20th April 2019 onwards

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

1 minute ago, Gordon Webb said:

true but this paragrahps sums it up i think

There's still some uncertainty over the exact track of this feature, but thunderstorms could break out in the south and southeast during Tuesday night before merging into a spell of more persistent thundery rain. We will update this nearer the time as developments become clearer and confidence increases. 

Could go either way, I think something overnight is quite likely based on current readings

[TJS1998Tom]

Looks like our area has a thunderstorm late Tuesday into Wednesday 

[Zak M]

The Met Office has issued a yellow warning for thunderstorms for Tuesday evening to Wednesday night 

[Summer Sun]

18:00 Tue 18 21:00 Wed 19

Thunderstorms may develop bringing torrential rain, hail and lightning to a few places, with potential disruption to travel and flooding.

What to expect

• There is a small chance that homes and businesses could be flooded quickly, with damage to some buildings from floodwater, lightning strikes, hail or strong winds
• Where flooding or lightning strikes occur, there is a chance of delays and some cancellations to train and bus services
• Spray and sudden flooding could lead to difficult driving conditions and some road closures
• There is a slight chance that power cuts could occur and other services to some homes and businesses could be lost

Through Tuesday evening there is potential for thunderstorms to break out, initially across parts of southern England, before developing more widely overnight and then clearing through Wednesday morning. The thunderstorms may merge into areas of more prolonged and widespread rain for a time on Tuesday night and at first on Wednesday. Widely 15-30 mm of rain may fall, with up to 50 mm in a few locations. After a drier interlude, further thunderstorms may develop in a few places during Wednesday afternoon, mainly southeastern parts of England. Whilst rain and flooding is likely to be the largest impact, hail, lightning and gusty winds will be additional hazards.

East Midlands

• Derby
• Derbyshire
• Leicester
• Leicestershire
• Lincolnshire
• Northamptonshire
• Nottingham
• Nottinghamshire
• Rutland

East of England

• Bedford
• Cambridgeshire
• Central Bedfordshire
• Essex
• Hertfordshire
• Luton
• Norfolk
• Peterborough
• Southend-on-Sea
• Suffolk
• Thurrock

London & South East England

• Bracknell Forest
• Brighton and Hove
• Buckinghamshire
• East Sussex
• Greater London
• Hampshire
• Isle of Wight
• Kent
• Medway
• Milton Keynes
• Oxfordshire
• Portsmouth
• Reading
• Slough
• Southampton
• Surrey
• West Berkshire
• West Sussex
• Windsor and Maidenhead
• Wokingham

South West England

• Bath and North East Somerset
• Bournemouth
• Dorset
• Gloucestershire
• Poole
• Somerset
• South Gloucestershire
• Swindon
• Wiltshire

West Midlands

• Staffordshire
• Warwickshire
• West Midlands Conurbation
• Worcestershire

Yorkshire & Humber

• East Riding of Yorkshire
• Kingston upon Hull
• North East Lincolnshire
• North Lincolnshire
• South Yorkshire

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/warnings-and-advice/uk-warnings?WT.mc_id=Twitter_Weatherdesk_Enquiries#?date=2019-06-18&id=c5c623ae-f13b-47ea-b6de-e6b2c05f9678&details

[Dami]

I refuse to get excited.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

#ThunderstormHarold

It’s happening folks

[Mapantz]

Judging by the warning matrix, it's pretty low risk, meaning a shift East is quite likely.

[poseidon]

11 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Judging by the warning matrix, it's pretty low risk, meaning a shift East is quite likely.

Quite. Looking more like a Kent clipper atm.

[Meteox 3 day lightning forecast]

[Swansonson69]

I refuse it being a Kent clipper.

[Chris.R]

WRF wants around 450 j/kg CAPE now, but that was with a surface temp of 15.6 and it’s actually 18.5. Having very good insollation; currently sunny and raining. 

[Gordon Webb]

39 minutes ago, Swansonson69 said:

I refuse it being a Kent clipper.

well as Ace Rimmer would say "stoke me a kent clipper"

[Swansonson69]

Ok my optimism for Tuesday/Wednesday is gone. Another bust sadly. 

[Arnie Pie]

9 minutes ago, Gordon Webb said:

well as Ace Rimmer would say "stoke me a kent clipper"

Something fishy about that comment Gordon

[Swansonson69]

Anyway back to today. A very nice cell passing to my West. Had rapid rising motion and a nice developing Shelf cloud. Possible rotation as well. I couldn't really tell though. Began thundering as it moved away. 

Edited June 16, 2019 by Swansonson69

[Thunder and Lightning]

Wednesday looks like it could hold some promise! Met Office have issued a yellow thunderstorm warning for Wednesday and Tuesday which is quite far in advance for a thunderstorm warning, I think an upgrade to Amber is possible further on?!

[TJS1998Tom]

A showers passed here now we're getting some blue skies 

[weatherobsuk]

Just had some of the heaviest rain i've seen in a few years pass by, like a jetwash blasting away across the windows with a few close lightning strikes on the back-edge of the cell.

[MP-R]

Absolutely biblical downpour moved through here not long ago - collected 5mm in as many minutes.

[Derecho]

18 minutes ago, MetWeather said:

Wednesday looks like it could hold some promise! Met Office have issued a yellow thunderstorm warning for Wednesday and Tuesday which is quite far in advance for a thunderstorm warning, I think an upgrade to Amber is possible further on?!

Perhaps, there is a risk we could be too far North though (London could do well). An upgrade to amber would occur if there is more confidence on where the storms will form.

As far as this evening goes, may be some more decent storm potential as CAPE values are similar to yesterday.

Edited June 16, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[Thunder and Lightning]

50 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Perhaps, there is a risk we could be too far North though (London could do well). An upgrade to amber would occur if there is more confidence on where the storms will form.

As far as this evening goes, may be some more decent storm potential as CAPE values are similar to yesterday.

Yeah true. On Today that storm passing to the south of Hull looks interesting and potentially supercellular, Can you see anything rotationwise or on that front?

[Derecho]

1 minute ago, MetWeather said:

Yeah true. On Today that storm passing to the south of Hull looks interesting and potentially supercellular, Can you see anything rotationwise or on that front?

Can't see anything from west Hull unfortunately, just a few dark clouds in the far distance. We got a bit of squally rain on the back edge of it.

Sun is back out now, hopefully that can spark up some storms later like yesterday afternoon / evening.

[Thunder and Lightning]

1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Can't see anything from west Hull unfortunately, just a few dark clouds in the far distance. We got a bit of squally rain on the back edge of it.

Sun is back out now, hopefully that can spark up some storms later like yesterday afternoon / evening.

Yeah, I think today has generally been a bit underrated.

[Chris.R]

The wind did veer soon after my last post and it’s been a dry and sunny afternoon since. Like someone flicked a switch. 

[Thunder and Lightning]

Praying for some goodness on Wednesday

[Harry]

GFS really quite shabby for Tuesday/Wednesday (showing brief thundery potential for EA during the morning). However, WRF-NMM much more optimistic in terms of MUCAPE flooding in from the SE...largely limited to the SE quarter. Also keen to break out convective precipitation with it. Assuming this is what the MetO is favouring in terms of its warnings.