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Roger J Smith

May 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

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10.8c to the 23rd

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.5 below the 80 to 10 average

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Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

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Looks like we might squeeze into the low 11's after all, mot much of a cold snap early next week now by the look of this mornings runs.

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13 minutes ago, snowray said:

Looks like we might squeeze into the low 11's after all, mot much of a cold snap early next week now by the look of this mornings runs.

Like i said a few days ago, I won't be surprised if we end up above average once again. 

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Posted (edited)

Just shows how hard it is to get a below average month nowadays! A good chunk of May has been fairly chilly - it's picked up recently, but the first 1/3 was pretty cold. Nothing out of the ordinary in the rest of the month, but still likely to end up around average.

Edited by mb018538

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Sunny Sheffield up to 10.6C -0.3C below normal. Rainfall unchanged.

Here in Sunny Sheffield the cool/ cold spell was from the 3rd to the 6th and the 8th to 10th. That's 7 days out of 24. Hardly a big chunk. The rest has been above average but warming trend is now matching the normal warm up which is why we still haven't cracked the average barrier here. 

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7 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

10.8c to the 23rd

0.1c below the 61 to 90 average

0.5 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

Looks like the GFS predictions from a few days ago were far too low.

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Met office showing max temps only in the mid teens next week, and that's for the tropical south! cool for the time of year.

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10.9c to the 24th

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

0.5 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

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Sunny Sheffield up to 10.8C, -0.2C below normal, Rainfall unchanged. We may actually hit average by tomorrow a week later than I thought.

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Posted (edited)

A fair chance we will finish just below the 61-90 average or at least bang on average, much will depend on the extent to any downward adjustments if they occur.

A slight rise expected over the next two days and then a plateau, without any adjustment I suspect we will come in 0.1 above average, but I have sneaky feeling a significant adjustment will be made this month - perhaps 0.4 degree even, I've noticed in recent months significant adjustments have been made when there have been a long run of clear skies at night, we had some notably cold nights earlier in the month.

As a whole a rather disappointing May temperature wise, with no real heat to speak of, yes a good dose of respectable temps mid-latter month, but never feeling especially summer like. Next week looks notably cool in the northern half of the UK, with maxima in the low teens - poor for late May, the south will only just about see average maxima and most places will see below maxima. A far cry from last year when many saw mid-high 20 maxima. Two very contrasting May Bank Holidays temperature wise compared to last year.. 

 

Edited by damianslaw

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I actually think it's been a decent May in NW England, okay no heat but plenty of dry sunny/bright days with temps in the 16-20C range.

There have been far worse Mays with higher CETs. 2003 for example was statistically warmer than this month but I recall a lot of dull Atlantic-driven weather until the last week.

Last May we were spoilt and I think that has probably skewed expectations.

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Sunny Sheffield at 10.9C -0.2C below normal. Rainfall 32.4mm 56.2% of average. Still hasn't caught up and the latest forecasts suggesting it won't.

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2 hours ago, Scorcher said:

I actually think it's been a decent May in NW England, okay no heat but plenty of dry sunny/bright days with temps in the 16-20C range.

There have been far worse Mays with higher CETs. 2003 for example was statistically warmer than this month but I recall a lot of dull Atlantic-driven weather until the last week.

Last May we were spoilt and I think that has probably skewed expectations.

I agree it hasn't been a bad May. Quite a few pleasant early summer days even though it's not summer never hot and never really humid. Hopefully we will have fresh conditions all summer with temps in the low twenties and not of the awful heat.

Rainfall wise it's looks like Spring will come in at average courtesy of a very wet March. Temperature wise spring just on the mild side.

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11.1c to the 25th

0.1 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

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Hadley EWP tracker was at 32 mm after 24 days, likely about 34 now, GFS estimate for rest of May is 15 to 20, so the previous estimate of 55 mm is still in play although values between 45 and 55 about equally likely to verify now. The provisional scoring was posted a few days ago for 55 mm, here's 50 mm as a slight variation. Verified numbers by 5th of June, monthly tracker should be final by 2nd (usually within 1-2 mm). 

EWP20182019G.xlsx

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11.2c to the 26th

0.2 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

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Sunny Sheffield up to 11.1C -0.1C below normal. Rainfall up 32.7mm 56.7% of normal.

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4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

11.2c to the 26th

0.2 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

Ticked up above the 61-90 average now, provisionally!

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4 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

11.2c to the 26th

0.2 above the 61 to 90 average

0.3 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

good to see a month outside the usual Nov to Mar, being above average

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not sure if that's irony or a typo or ... care to elaborate?

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2 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:

not sure if that's irony or a typo or ... care to elaborate?

Yes - agree, anyone care to cast their eyes back to May, June, July last year, and even April this year, if you had said that about below average temps in Nov to March i could understand, as there has been some mild stuff over the last 5 or 6 years, we might not have had that many BT's over the last few years (last year excepted) but its not hard to find examples of above average temps in summer recently, even if not by much and that many and also some have had  highish PPN totals.

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On 26/05/2019 at 08:18, Scorcher said:

I actually think it's been a decent May in NW England, okay no heat but plenty of dry sunny/bright days with temps in the 16-20C range.

There have been far worse Mays with higher CETs. 2003 for example was statistically warmer than this month but I recall a lot of dull Atlantic-driven weather until the last week.

Last May we were spoilt and I think that has probably skewed expectations.

I will agree with those who said it’s been poor. Temps have mediocre, and the sunny weather has been rather on and off.

Thats not to say we haven’t had nice weather in London, but it’s been disappointing.

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14 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

I will agree with those who said it’s been poor. Temps have mediocre, and the sunny weather has been rather on and off.

Thats not to say we haven’t had nice weather in London, but it’s been disappointing.

How can it have been 'poor' when temps are around average (or fractionally above) and fairly dry?...as mentioned by scorcher I think we were spoilt last spring and probably also by recent May's which have been notably sunny. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Sunny76 said:

I will agree with those who said it’s been poor. Temps have mediocre, and the sunny weather has been rather on and off.

Thats not to say we haven’t had nice weather in London, but it’s been disappointing.

It certainly hasn't been 'poor'. I take it you don't remember May 1996? There have been much, much worse Mays. Honestly I wonder if some people on this forum have never actually experienced a truly 'poor' month.

A forgettable month perhaps but I would certainly take this month over May 2003 for example, which was unrelentingly dull before a late hot spell rescued it somewhat.

Edited by Scorcher

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14 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

It certainly hasn't been 'poor'. I take it you don't remember May 1996? There have been much, much worse Mays. Honestly I wonder if some people on this forum have never actually experienced a truly 'poor' month.

A forgettable month perhaps but I would certainly take this month over May 2003 for example, which was unrelentingly dull before a late hot spell rescued it somewhat.

Yes I do remember 1996 very well, but I’m not comparing May 2019 to that. It’s been a disappointing, on the back of 2018 and 17(both of those were sunny), but I’ve also noticed more cloudy and unsettled chilly weather. 

This year is quite close to how bad it was in 2016, but not as rotten as 2013 or 96, I’ll concede. 

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