May 2019 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[damianslaw]

9 hours ago, SunnyDazee said:

Fantastic thanks for getting back to me, we’ve had N’lys but are we getting W/SW at the moment? I’m struggling to read the wind finder forecasts they’ve got wind coming from everywhere lol

Winds so far have been predominantly from between north west and east, and will stay this way for the foreseeable, an easterly for next week, synoptic wise its been very similar to May 96.

[damianslaw]

1 hour ago, Don said:

Yes and I’m ready for one of those winters again!  In fact, I’m always ready for a cold winter!

Me too, we are in solar minimum next winter which I think will increase chances - there is a feel of the 09-11 period about things at present, that was a blocked spell with the atlantic in a slumber, we've been this way more or less since last April, shortlived punches from the atlantic with no real gusto, with anticyclonic conditions holding firm, hence the dry theme continues..

Also a 95-97 feel about things as well.. just not had the cold in winter yet.. we weren't far off a cold one last winter, but the omega blocks that happened in late Dec-early Jan and then again in Feb set up all wrongly to deliver cold to our shores - the atlantic was in a dolldrums.

Edited May 10, 2019 by damianslaw

[Summer Sun]

8.9c to the 10th

1.2c below the 61 to 90 average

1.8 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

 

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 8.1C -1.3C below average. Rainfall 30.2mm 52.3% of normal.

[Earthshine]

Despite the cool temperatures, it hasn't been a bad month so far here.  Plenty of dry weather.  Perhaps this cooler weather will be followed by a long-overdue backloaded summer?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield still at 8.1C -1.4C below normal. Rainfall 31.2mm 54.1% of the monthly average.

[Summer Sun]

9.0c to the 11th

1.3c below the 61 to 90 average

1.7 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

[SunnyDazee]

On 11/05/2019 at 14:24, Earthshine said:

Despite the cool temperatures, it hasn't been a bad month so far here.  Plenty of dry weather.  Perhaps this cooler weather will be followed by a long-overdue backloaded summer?

I’m starting to think this too, Late June, July and Early August rather than May June and July. Also could mean warmer autumn

[damianslaw]

Its been a very cool start to May here, minimum temperatures have been significantly below average, indeed we've had a number of ground frosts, and nudged into air frost territory at times. 

Today though has brought the first above average maximum temp, and the next few days will do the same, high teen temps, so come this time next week, perspectives of the month temp wise will be different.

Its also looking like another very dry May, like last year, if we sustain easterly winds.

[Don]

Still have a suspicion this month will finish above average.

[Earthshine]

10 hours ago, Don said:

Still have a suspicion this month will finish above average.

Hardly a suprise these days

[Summer Sun]

9.1c to the 12th

1.3c below the 61 to 90 average

1.7 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

[snowray]

Did well to get in a 0.1c rise yesterday, night mins were particularly low for mid May with many locations around 0c.

Should get another uptick today.

[The PIT]

Big rise today as Sunny Sheffield goes up to 8.4C -1.3C below average. Rainfall Unchanged.

[Roger J Smith]

The GFS keeps returning to the theme of much colder weather returning late in the month, so I took a look back to find any other Mays that ended up below 10 after reaching any value above 10.0 in the period 15th to 23rd from a start that was sub-10 for the first two weeks (one or two milder days were allowed in first three). 

These are the only Mays that had those features (not many recently because not many Mays fail to break 10.0). Almost all the sub-10 Mays struggled to get very high at any point and were not falling near the end. So that ruled out most possible analogues. The 1975 case is pretty weak in terms of any mid-month warming but with so few cases it looks like one of the better analogues (it was warmer than 10.0 as late as the 29th). Because there were so few similar cases, I added 1891 which warmed up a bit faster mid-month but otherwise matched the profile sought. 1955 was added as another near miss for the criteria.

Similar Mays to current guidance (warming mid-month then cooler, sub 10 finish)

YEAR __ CET 14th __ Max CET 15-23 ___ finish

(1891)___11.1 ______ 11.1 14th _______ 9.5

1894 ____ 9.4 ______ 10.0 18th _______ 9.2

1899 ____ 9.4 ______ 10.0 23rd _______ 9.9

(1955) __10.0 ______ 10.0 14th _______ 9.7 (fell to 8.9 21st-22nd)

1975 ____ 9.8 ______ 10.0 21st _______ 9.9

_________________________________________________

So there hasn't actually been a case where May reached even 10.5 after a cool start then fell below 10 at the end. There have been several cases where May had a warmer start than this year and fell from above 10.5 on 14th to below 10. In 1923 the running CET continued to fall from a high point of 13.8 on 4th to 10.2 on 14th and 9.2 at end of the month. 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

9.2c to the 13th

1.2c below the 61 to 90 average

1.6 below the 80 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 11.9 to the 1st

Current low this month 8.8c to the 6th & 7th

[BornFromTheVoid]

Below is the estimate of the CET over the next 10 days based on the 06z GFS

The first graph is the provisional data and forecast with daily max, min, mean and the rolling CET, as well as the 81-10 rolling mean. The second graph is the daily mean in relation the the daily high and low mean record values.

  

Closing in on the rolling average during the next week, but a warm final third of the month still required to reach the 81-10 average

[snowray]

So steady rise from now on then looking likely.

I noticed that at 2pm we had 18/19c widely, be nice to see 20c turn up this afternoon in a few places. Could we really see a 0.3c rise tomorrow, night temps are still on the low side but certainly not as cold, no more frosts please.

[Relativistic]

2 hours ago, snowray said:

So steady rise from now on then looking likely.

I noticed that at 2pm we had 18/19c widely, be nice to see 20c turn up this afternoon in a few places. Could we really see a 0.3c rise tomorrow, night temps are still on the low side but certainly not as cold, no more frosts please.

Not the CET zone but we've managed to hit 21C here in Edinburgh. Not-far-away Leuchars is at 22C, and Aviemore at 23C!

[snowray]

Just now, Relativistic said:

Not the CET zone but we've managed to hit 21C here in Edinburgh. Not-far-away Leuchars is at 22C, and Aviemore at 23C!

Yes I was just looking at that, Aviemore 23c, hottest spot in the UK, wow! 

The CET zone has maxes widely of 19c, around Liverpool its got  up to 20c but I'm not sure if that's just out.

[Sunny76]

It’s still chilly in London, out of the sunshine  that is. Very nice and sunny though. And fresh winds keeping pollution levels low.

The evenings are nice and long now, with clear blue sky evenings. But, I’m hoping for much warmer temps soon.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Sunny76 said:

It’s still chilly in London, out of the sunshine  that is. Very nice and sunny though. And fresh winds keeping pollution levels low.

The evenings are nice and long now, with clear blue sky evenings. But, I’m hoping for much warmer temps soon.

Aye, easterly breeze here, keen too, but great day still like early summer

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield another big jump to 8.8C -1.0C below normal. Rainfall unchanged. Should be above 9c tomorrow.

[Roger J Smith]

If we never got back to 11.9 (CET on 1st) this happens about one out of eight times over the 248 years with daily data, although it happened four out of five times from 2007 to 2011 (missing only 2008). The lowest value from which no further gain was made was 9.1 in 1902 (ended 8.9 and always below 9.1 through the month). One that looked similar to this year was May 1932 starting from 11.6 and dropping to 7.3 on the 8th, back to 10.6 by 23rd and finished on 10.5. This is not a good set of summer analogues especially the cases where the warmest day on 1st was not caused by that day being very warm (over 14). 

[Sunny76]

Is this the first may for at least 3 years since the temperatures struggled to reach 21c in the south of England?

i think the warmest for the London region has been 18-19 degrees. By now I would have seen a 23-25c spell in most recent years, especially 2017 and 18.